Once again, media promotion in Egypt has returned to military action targeting the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
After the failure of the last round of tripartite negotiations about a week ago, in conjunction with an unprecedented military escalation between Sudan and Ethiopia, which is witnessing a civil war and tribal skirmishes in several areas, including the region on which the dam is located.
Although the local promotion of military action targeting the dam was not a spur of the moment as it was previously evoked on more than one occasion in the past ten years, this time it was linked to concerns of direct influence on Egypt's share of water from the Nile River, with Ethiopia announcing the start of the second filling of the dam lake in July / Next July, in addition to the frequent talks about Ethiopia's start of building a new dam.
The most prominent promotion of the tone of the military action came in an article by Imad Eddin Hussein, a journalist close to the decision-making circles in Egypt, published in the Al-Shorouk newspaper, which he heads the editor-in-chief, under the title "Ethiopia Respects Power Only." The Renaissance Dam, and it became clear that it is procrastinating and evasive, and then finally wants to impose a fait accompli.
Posted by Emad Eddin Hussein on Saturday, January 16, 2021
The editor-in-chief of Al-Shorouk touched on the idea of military action against the dam, saying that his country may not bomb the Renaissance Dam itself, but the stations that will transmit electricity from it to the rest of Ethiopia, noting that disabling these stations and taking them out of work is not difficult.
He also warned Ethiopia that it and those who support it (without naming it) will not enjoy development if Egypt does not enjoy water safety, calling on his country's government to adopt different solutions and stop going to international and regional forums.
It was noteworthy that Imad al-Din Hussein's article, known for its habit of adopting a negotiated solution while excluding military solutions in the dam crisis, was welcomed by former ministers and water resources experts in his country.
Good article with a new, different tone
Posted by Mohamed Nasr Allam on Sunday, January 17, 2021
No negotiations with Ethiopia will not succeed. It is a war of breaking the will and subjugation. Either we win it or we pay a dear price after that.
Posted by Nader Noureddine on Thursday, January 14, 2021
Indirect signals
Commenting on the media talk about targeting the dam, the journalist, Yahya Ghanem, saw that it was an official mandate, explaining that this group of media professionals could not speak about such matters without guidance, if not assignment.
In an interview - to Al-Jazeera Net - Ghanem explained the media call for the military solution as "indirect signals and messages with the intention of achieving the goal of deterrence."
However, he questioned the achievement of this goal by saying that deterrence can only be achieved and achieved its goal through a direct message through specialized officials, not through a media person, regardless of the degree of his proximity to the regime, stressing that Egypt was late in using the deterrent weapon.
In his turn, the Egyptian researcher in political science, Omar Samir, attributed the reasons and indications for calling the military solution to the very late recognition of the failure of the comic negotiation path that Cairo followed as the only option.
In statements - to Al-Jazeera Net - Samir held the Egyptian presidency and the Foreign Ministry responsible for the loss and depletion of all papers over the years in the negotiation track.
He explained that the regime is now in a very critical position in this file, pointing out that the opposition and experts at home and abroad have emphasized the absurdity of the negotiation process and luring Egypt and Sudan into a dead end without making any concessions from Ethiopia.
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Egyptian alternatives
With the decline of the Egyptian alternatives in the face of the failure of the negotiation track due to the delay in a real, serious and decisive reaction from Cairo, the Egyptian side has only two alternatives that are connected, namely the severe international escalation and sending direct messages not only to Ethiopia but to the international community, that the alternative is a serious military action, according to Ghanem. .
Regarding the move at the international level, Ghanem talked about the legal, international and political escalation in the Security Council, regardless of the council's responses or the possibilities of using a veto on any draft resolution, indicating that the goal is to put the international community in the picture and in front of its responsibilities.
As for the military escalation, he said that it does not mean a military strike, but rather to give direct and clear messages that the Egyptian side will move militarily, and there are means from the side of the mobilization in the south and in coordination with other parties concerned, such as Sudan.
There is an important reference that Omar Samir made regarding the possible "military" alternatives for the Egyptian side, proposed by Imad al-Din Hussein "regarding taking the Ethiopian power stations out of work without including the bombing of the dam itself," is that those who finance these stations are Russia and China. Basically, then any military action against it would be very difficult.
He pointed out that the alternatives that were actually available and put forward in various formulas included "exporting the huge electricity surplus that Egypt achieved years ago to Ethiopia's direct neighbors, but to Ethiopia itself, at competitive prices that make the dam not regionally feasible, and lose regional support and one of its main thrusts."
The alternatives also included submitting the principles agreement signed (between the leaders of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan) in 2015 to Parliament and directing it to reject it, and then evading it at an early date to put pressure on Ethiopia.
But this is not useful anymore, according to Samir, who stressed that withdrawing from negotiations now, despite its symbolic importance, is no longer of great benefit.
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The repercussions of military action
Ghanem believes that the repercussions of any military action, with intransigence and determination, and the international community's neglect on the part of Ethiopia, will be much less expensive than the present threat that threatens Egypt on the existential level.
He stressed that the existential danger justifies the use of military force in which Egypt is far and away over Ethiopia, and linking this to the real political will and testing the huge Egyptian military capacity.
Omar Samir agreed with the previous proposal, saying that a military solution is possible and on the table, and this is its very appropriate timing.
The Ethiopian regime is in its weakest conditions internally and regionally, and the negotiation path has completely failed and has achieved the goals of exhausting peaceful means long ago.
He wondered whether "if the regime is no longer able to completely destroy the dam's body with quick, lightning and effective strikes, then it must justify all these major deals to buy weapons."
The Egyptian regime’s summoning of the military solution represents, according to Samir, “a very important need for a source of legitimacy and an external achievement if it wanted to continue until 2030, as he planned and amended the constitution because the sources of its legitimacy have been completely consumed and he knows that.”
As for the repercussions that Egypt may face, if the dam is targeted, Samir expects that it will be "some ineffective international sanctions and condemnations," stressing that his country "will not be able to bear the consequences of filling and operating the dam without an agreement, partial agreement, or even a comprehensive, fragile and non-binding agreement." Ethiopia also plans. "
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Military capabilities
According to the latest statistics issued by the Global Fire Power Foundation, which is specialized in the military affairs of countries,
the Egyptian army ranked 13th in the list of the most powerful armies in the world for 2021
, in a clear and significant advance over
its Ethiopian counterpart, which ranks 60th in the world
.
The air, sea, land and human capabilities are also tilted in the interest of Egypt to a large extent, in contrast to the huge budget of the Egyptian Ministry of Defense compared to its Ethiopian counterpart, according to the previous source.
During the height of a civil war in the Ethiopian Tigray region, last November, Egypt and Sudan held military maneuvers. Observers did not rule out that "messages of deterrence to Ethiopia," the first joint maneuvers since the ouster of former President Omar al-Bashir, were the first.
Former US President Donald Trump has previously revealed Egypt's threat to blow up the Renaissance Dam in response to the Ethiopian intransigence in the negotiations, but Egypt has not officially commented on these statements.
The Nile Eagles maneuvers gathered Egyptian and Sudanese forces last November (official websites)