The main Russian opponent Alexey Navalny -
Sergei Fadeichev / TASS / Sipa USA / SIPA
Political opponent and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny returned to Moscow, Russia, after five months of recovery in Germany, on Sunday.
He was arrested immediately upon arrival in Russia.
The 44-year-old man was hospitalized in Berlin in August 2020 after being poisoned in Novichok, according to three European laboratories.
His incarceration drew condemnation from the EU and the United States, which demanded his release.
But why did Alexey Navalny take the risk of returning to his country, knowing what awaited him there?
As soon as he arrived in Russia, immediately arrested.
Russian opponent Alexeï Navalny was immediately arrested on Sunday on his return to the country after five months of convalescence in Germany following suspected poisoning.
After a night in police custody, the Kremlin's number one enemy was jailed on Monday and is expected to remain in prison at least until February 15.
The authorities accuse him of having violated judicial control measures in recent months, while he had been hospitalized in Germany since last August, after having suddenly fallen into a coma.
Last week the FSIN, the Russian prison service, warned the opponent that he would be arrested on his return to Russia for violating his judicial review under a five-year prison sentence with stay for embezzlement.
So why did the number one opponent to Vladimir Putin take the risk of coming back?
No political future for Navalny outside Russia
By flying to Moscow, Alexeï Navalny had even declared himself "very happy" to return and had assured that he was not afraid of anything.
"Are they going to arrest me?"
It is not possible, I am innocent, ”he quipped.
For the political opponent, it is impossible to continue his fight from abroad.
“He knows he has no political future outside of Russia.
Pursuing political action in exile is very difficult, if not impossible, ”explains Arnaud Dubien, director of the Franco-Russian Observatory in Moscow and associate researcher at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).
For Jean de Gliniasty, research director at IRIS and former French ambassador in Moscow, Alexeï Navalny is above all an activist "who has the feeling of having a mission": "He has taken up his responsibilities, he does not give up to his influence, an influence which he would have lost had he remained abroad.
With his alleged poisoning, the opponent has even acquired a certain notoriety in Russia, where it remains however limited outside the large cities.
According to a poll by the independent Levada center in September, 20% of Russians now approve of his action, against 7% before the events of August 2020: “He is starting to become known, to have a political base that he did not have. before, ”decrypts the former ambassador, who believes that his return could give him additional credit with some Russians, sensitive to his fight.
From spoilsport to enemy of the Kremlin
This Monday afternoon, a few minutes after the announcement of his incarceration, Alexeï Navalny called on the Russians "to go out into the streets" against the government: "What these bandits (in power) fear the most, you know, is that people take to the streets (…) so don't be afraid, take to the streets, not for me but for yourself, for your future ", he said in a video filmed in courtroom and posted on social media.
Bad news for the government, which would have gone well with the return of the opponent and the agitation that surrounds it.
“After his poisoning, there was no demonstration but today that can change.
If there was a demonstration, it could worry the Kremlin, ”analyzes Arnaud Dubien, who believes that Alexeï Navalny has changed status, from troublemaker to enemy.
Because if Alexeï Navalny is not perceived as a danger for Vladimir Putin or as a plausible alternative for 2024, the year of the next presidential election in Russia, the activist is unseating the regime.
"What disrupts the system is that Navalny is absolutely not afraid of Vladimir Poutine", decrypts Arnaud Dubien.
An idea shared by Jean de Gliniasty: “Electorally, this is not necessarily a threat for Putin.
But he represents something, he presents himself as close to the people, a patriot, a hero in the fight against corruption, and these are three very popular themes in Russia, ”analyzes the former ambassador.
A prison sentence to neutralize him politically?
Incarcerated this Monday, Alexeï Navalny is likely to spend a few months, even a few years in prison.
Prosecuted for violating the judicial control imposed on him, the activist has also been targeted, since the end of December, by a new investigation for fraud.
He is suspected of having spent 356 million rubles (3.9 million euros) on donations for his personal use.
For the two specialists, putting Alexeï Navalny in prison would allow the government to prevent him from continuing his political activities: "The most likely hypothesis is that he will be sentenced because of his previous conviction and the investigation. opened in December and spent several years in prison.
The Kremlin's calculation is that we talk less and less about Navalny, ”recognizes Arnaud Dubien.
“They will look for the best way to neutralize him politically.
If he goes to prison, he will not be able to continue his political activities, ”also considers Jean de Gliniasty.
For the latter, there is no doubt that the Kremlin would have preferred Alexey Navalny to stay abroad.
According to Jean de Gliniasty, the situation is comparable to that of Mikhail Borisovich Khodorkovsky, a Russian businessman, critic of Vladimir Poutine, imprisoned in 2004 and released after ten years in prison.
“One of the conditions for Khodorkovsky's release was not to return to Russia.
The aim was to keep it from being talked about and the Russians to forget about it.
»Prison, exile, or assassination?
Faced with the media coverage of his poisoning and international pressure, a new assassination attempt against Alexeï Navalny seems unlikely.
“Contrary to popular belief, political opponents are rarely murdered in Russia.
Russia does not need to kill him, but rather to remove him from the political landscape, ”argues the former ambassador.
And if there is one thing that the Russian government wants to avoid at all costs, it is to make Alexei Navalny a political martyr.
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