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Saarbrücken (dpa) - The target value pursued by politicians for new corona infections for a lockdown end will probably not be reached at the end of January, according to calculations by Saarbrücken pharmacy professor Thorsten Lehr.

"The chance is extremely small or nonexistent," said Lehr of the German Press Agency in Saarbrücken.

He assumed that the targeted rate of 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in seven days would not be possible until mid-February at the earliest.

"And that would be an optimistic prediction."

The professor of clinical pharmacy at Saarland University and his research team have developed a "Covid simulator" that calculates the infection rate in Germany and provides forecasts: for all of Germany, the individual federal states down to the district level.

It can also be used online: in the past two months, the site has been viewed almost a million times, he said.

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According to the Robert Koch Institute, the so-called seven-day incidence nationwide on Friday was 146. "At the moment there is actually no decline in sight," said Lehr.

"Rather, it is stagnating."

Due to late registrations due to the holidays, there is still some ambiguity in the numbers.

It should be noted, however, that the current measures «are not so effective».

In view of the new threatening virus variants that arise through mutations and are highly contagious, "an urgent reduction in the number of infections" is needed, he said.

The new mutant from Great Britain, for example, could make the R value jump up by 0.5.

“Then many measures would be wiped out in one fell swoop.

And then it becomes clear: the further down we are, the better we can slow down the spread. "

Lehr advocates a value of 25 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants per week, from which easing could become possible.

So far, politics has been based on the 50 mark.

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Lehr sees a return to everyday school life as critical.

"Infections take place in schools."

Many children went through the disease asymptomatically.

"We can see from our data that school closings have a major effect."

This is not only due to the fact that the institution is closing, but also because there is no way to get there by bus, train or on foot.

© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210116-99-47852 / 2

Covid simulator

Figures Robert Koch Institute