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According to calculations by Saarbrücken pharmacy professor Thorsten Lehr, the target value pursued by politicians for new corona infections for a lockdown end will probably not be reached at the end of January.

“The chance is extremely small or nonexistent,” said Lehr of the German press agency.

He assumed that the targeted rate of 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in seven days would not be possible until mid-February at the earliest.

"And that would be an optimistic prediction."

The professor of clinical pharmacy at Saarland University and his research team have developed a “Covid simulator” that calculates the infection rate in Germany and provides forecasts: for all of Germany, the individual federal states down to the district level.

It can also be used online.

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According to the Robert Koch Institute, the so-called seven-day incidence nationwide is currently 139.2.

“At the moment there is actually no subsidence in sight,” said Lehr.

"It is rather stagnating." Because of late registrations due to the holidays, there is still some uncertainty about the numbers.

It should be noted, however, that the current measures “do not work”.

In view of the new threatening virus variants that have arisen through mutations and are probably highly contagious, "an urgent reduction in the number of infections" is needed, he said.

The new mutant from Great Britain, for example, could jump up the R value by 0.5.

“Then many measures would be wiped out in one fell swoop.

And then it turns out: the further down we are, the better we can slow the spread. "

"School closings have a big effect"

Lehr emphasized that in the first lockdown in 2020, the seven-day incidence never exceeded the 50 threshold.

Therefore, any easing above 50 should not be strong, he warned.

“Because the risk that it will rise again is very high.” It is wrong to suggest “normality” again immediately.

Lehr said he would advocate a low rate of 25 or less before easing.

"The contacts must be traceable." Politics has so far been based on the 50 mark.

Lehr is accordingly critical of a return to everyday school life.

"Infections take place in schools." Many children experienced the disease asymptomatically.

“We can see from our data that school closings have a major effect.” However, this is not only due to the fact that the institution is closing, but also because there is no way to get there by bus, train or on foot.