Fears of the strong return of Al-Shabaab movement ... after the withdrawal of US forces from Somalia

US President Donald Trump issued his orders to withdraw his country's forces from Somalia today, January 15th, 5 days before leaving the White House, handing over power to President-elect Joe Biden, and coinciding with a time when Somalia prepares for the parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for this January. According to the schedule issued by the Somali government.

The American forces - which are estimated at 700 soldiers - have been stationed in Somalia since 2013, mainly at the Helani base at the international airport in Mogadishu, the Bledogli air base, 100 km west of Mogadishu, and in the coastal city of Kismayo, 500 km south of Mogadishu, and it has a limited presence in Bosaso city in northeastern Somalia, and Galcaio city in central Somalia.

The main mission of the forces is to support the Somali army in its war against the al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen movement, by training Somali commando forces and carrying out air strikes targeting al-Shabaab sites and its leaders.

The US AFRICOM command said that the withdrawal of forces is in fact a repositioning, as part of these forces will be transferred to a country in East Africa, and the rest will be sent outside the East African region, adding that it will monitor the situation there and will continue to direct strikes on Al-Shabaab.

An American soldier accompanies the Somali commandos in their attack on the city of Barawa (Al-Jazeera - Archive)

An important presence for Somalia

However, the head of the Heral Center for Security Studies, Hussein Sheikh Ali, believes that the withdrawal of these forces will have an impact on the process of combating armed organizations in Somalia such as Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State, considering these forces an important support for fighting these groups.

Ali tells Al-Jazeera Net that "the United States was the only country that responded to a request from the Somali government in 2013 to raise the capabilities of the Somali army by establishing commando forces that it trained at the highest level, and its participation in land liberation operations or special operations that it carries out side by side with American forces is effective." And efficient. "

The strength of the Somali commando forces trained by the US forces is 1,100 soldiers, which is less than planned, which is to train 3 thousand soldiers. These forces were supposed to be distributed in different areas to support the Somali army’s operations against al-Shabaab, but it is a well-trained force that gets it. Logistical support from US forces.

Somali forces receive training in Turkey (Anadolu Agency)

Disappointment and victory

Ali also believes that if the United States withdraws its forces from Somalia, the logistical support and training provided to the Somali forces may falter, which will lead to a decline in operations and air strikes against Al-Shabaab in his view. This opinion is shared by the military expert Sharif Hussein Robow, who considered the withdrawal of American forces from Somalia. Disappointment for the Somali government and victory for Al-Shabab.

Robow told Al-Jazeera Net that "American aircraft do not leave the areas in which Al-Shabaab is active, and they were carrying out air strikes and landings in which elements of the Somali commando forces were participating to disrupt and restrict the movement of al-Shabaab fighters in their areas of influence and outside, and to limit its threat and attacks. The withdrawal of American forces from Somalia is a relief to Al-Shabaab. "

He adds that "withdrawing American air cover gives freedom to move equipment, weapons and personnel from one place to another freely, and thus intensify attacks on Somali army sites, which will lose the air coverage that was provided by the US forces."

Robow believes that if Somalia does not plan to end the Somali army's dependence on foreign forces, the security problem in Somalia will be prolonged.

Some Somalis fear the return of the Mujahideen Youth Movement to strike hard after the withdrawal of American forces (Reuters)

Critical points

In turn, political analyst Hassan Sheikh Ali Nour does not see any effect of the withdrawal of US forces from Somalia, neither at the security level nor at the political level, for two reasons. The first is that the role of the American forces has not scored any decisive points in establishing security in Somalia, and its air operations are ineffective, and have not The battle against Al-Shabab is resolved.

As for the second reason - in Nour's opinion during his interview with Al-Jazeera Net - it is that "the biggest role that the American forces play in Somalia is to carry out air strikes, and they are able to carry out this mission from their bases in Djibouti and Kenya, which are adjacent to Somalia."

He adds that the new US administration may restore things to what they were in the past, and we do not forget that the US forces carried out 50 air strikes in Somalia in 2020, 63 raids in 2019, and 47 raids in 2018, and human rights organizations said that some of them killed and wounded civilians without admitting This brings AFRICOM leadership.

The United States was avoiding the presence of its forces in Somalia after the killing of 18 soldiers of its special forces in Mogadishu in 1993 in an armed confrontation with the supporters of General Mohamed Farah Aideed, as part of the operation to restore hope to help the victims of famine in the south of the country in which America participated with 28 thousand soldiers.