The Russian-American Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START III) expires in three weeks.

The agreement signed by Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama entered into force on February 5, 2011, replacing the START I expired in December 2009.

The treaty provided for a gradual reduction in the number of nuclear warheads to 1,550 units, and the number of deployed carriers - to 700 for each of the parties and was designed for ten years with the possibility of extending for another five (by mutual agreement).

Back in December 2019, Russia offered to extend the treaty without any preconditions, despite existing claims to Washington's compliance with its arms control obligations.

The United States has refused this offer.

Two months ago, Vladimir Putin proposed to the American side to extend the START Treaty by at least a year in order to be able to thoroughly discuss the issues of interest, but Washington rejected this proposal.

“We are faced with the reluctance of our American partners to prolong the Treaty as it was signed.

Washington took the path of imposing unacceptable conditions for the extension of the agreement.

For example, colleagues insisted on returning to verification procedures during the Cold War, ”said Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov, speaking the other day at a seminar of the Academy of Negotiations on Arms Control.

  • Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov

  • RIA News

  • © Alexey Agaryshev

According to him, consultations with the administration of the 45th US President both on the extension of the START Treaty and on the broader issues of strategic stability "have reached a dead end."

“It is obvious that a significant political will is required to resume a regular dialogue.

We can only wait until the next administration decides on the approaches to the prolongation of the Treaty and arms control in general, ”Antonov said.

The diplomat noted that Moscow is ready to discuss the technical details of extending the agreement, and expressed the opinion that the chances of reaching such an agreement before its expiration still remain.

“I would like to hope that the new White House team will demonstrate a similar desire and political will,” the ambassador said.

In this regard, it is worth recalling that US President-elect Joe Biden during the election campaign promised to extend START III in case of his victory, in order to use it as a basis for new agreements.

"Equation of security"

According to Antonov, the time gained as a result of the prolongation of the START Treaty can be used to conduct comprehensive negotiations on the future control over nuclear missile weapons, taking into account all factors affecting strategic stability, such as missile defense, medium and shorter-range missiles, hypersonic systems, global strike and promising space weapons.

“We are talking about the development of a new“ security equation ”that takes into account the latest types of weapons, advanced technologies and new political realities,” the ambassador emphasized.

“We propose not to be limited to traditional strategic weapons such as ICBMs, submarine ballistic missiles and heavy bombers.

We consider it necessary to include in the specified "equation" all nuclear and non-nuclear weapons that can perform strategic tasks, "the Russian diplomat explained.

  • Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama at the signing ceremony for START III, April 8, 2010

  • RIA News

  • © Dmitry Astakhov

The head of the diplomatic mission added that this position was presented to the American side during consultations: “Our approach is to jointly with Washington identify weapons that pose a threat to the national territory of each side.

We must take into account the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the balance of power between Russia and the United States.

Thus, we indicated our readiness to discuss restrictions on deployed nuclear warheads capable of striking the national territory of the other side.

As well as quantitative and geographical restrictions on the deployment of missile defense systems. "

Antonov noted that other states can voluntarily join the promising arms control system.

At the same time, he stressed that pressure on any countries in this matter is unacceptable.

“Russia considers untenable attempts to exert international pressure on any country in order to involve it in the specified regime.

Consultations and negotiations on arms control should be conducted on a free, voluntary basis, taking into account the legitimate interests of the parties, ”the ambassador said.

According to analysts, the diplomat was referring to the situation when the Donald Trump administration refused to extend START III unless China joined it.

At the same time, Washington did not demand to include other nuclear powers in the agreement.

“We are interested in joining the dialogue between Great Britain and France.

They have nuclear weapons reserves comparable to those of China.

They are also closely coordinating with Washington policy in the military nuclear sphere within the framework of the NATO alliance, ”the Russian ambassador said.

"Progress does not stand still"

Experts state that if START III is not extended, then Russia and the United States will no longer be bound by arms control agreements, since in 2019 Washington withdrew from the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty), and in 2020 - m - from the Open Skies Treaty (DON).

At the same time, analysts note that the Biden administration, judging by his past statements, may well take a more constructive position on this issue.

“Even under Trump… there was a certain consensus that the agreement should not be buried.

Given that the US Congress is controlled by Democrats who tend to pay attention to arms control, and also that there are no formal obstacles to working in this direction, there is a chance that START III can be extended, "the head said in an interview with RT Sector of Regional Security Problems of the Center for Defense Research RISS Sergei Ermakov.

  • United States President-elect Joe Biden

  • Reuters

  • © Kevin Lamarque

The temporary reserve obtained as a result of the extension of the agreement will allow both parties to take steps to create a new agreement in the future, which will take into account the changes in technology and geopolitics that have occurred since the signing of START III, analysts explain.

“Russia understands that progress does not stand still: new types of weapons appear that must be taken into account.

Therefore, Moscow says that the new agreement should take into account offensive and defensive types of weapons.

For example, the missile defense system, which is being developed by the United States, as well as hypersonic weapons, ”said Ermakov.

In turn, military expert Yuri Knutov confirmed that the new agreement could take into account the latest developments in the field of hypersonic weapons, including Russian.

“The future agreement will have to include hypersonic weapons, as well as the latest carriers such as the American B-21 Raider bomber, Columbia-class nuclear submarines.

These complexes should be considered, but only in conjunction with the missile defense system, as well as the INF Treaty.

It is also necessary to take into account the issue of the US space forces within the framework of the new agreement, "the expert explained.

Knutov also noted that Russia's proposal to invite France and Great Britain to participate in the new agreement is absolutely justified.

"The development of a broader treaty with the participation of France, England, the United States and Russia is an objective requirement of the Russian side, since Paris and London are part of the NATO bloc and in the event of a military conflict must take part in the war against Moscow on the side of Washington," Knutov explained.

"Such states as India, Pakistan or China will be more difficult to involve in this process, since these countries are not bound by any allied obligations either with Russia or with the United States," the expert added.

Summing up, Sergei Ermakov stated that the extension of START III as a temporary measure for creating a new agreement in the future will make the world safer.  

“If Biden prolongs the treaty, then there will be time to coordinate positions and find compromises, thanks to which the world would be pushed back from the possibility of a third world war, and colossal resources would be spent not on the arms race, but on socio-economic development, the fight against the epidemic solution of other problems, ”the analyst concluded.