Get answers from Elisabeth Marmorstein about the public opinion situation, the party leader debate and the political year 2021 at 16.05.

Ask your questions now.

Direct report · Marble stone answers

Post

Javascript needs to be enabled in your browser for this instant report to be updated automatically.

10 Dec 202017.24

Now I unfortunately have to log out for this time.

Funny that I got so many interesting questions, sorry I did not have time to answer you all.

Hear again next year!

SVT · Elisabeth Marmorstein

10 Dec 202017.23

Hi,


Which party manages to keep the voters' interest alive the longest, until the next election, and under the prevailing conditions?

Which issue, besides healthcare and geriatric care, will be the most charged?

Mia

Hi Mia, not easy to predict but I think finances and jobs will be significantly more important in the next election than last time due to the pandemic and its economic consequences.

Several parties, in particular SD and M, also have an interest in law and order and migration becoming large in the next election and will do what they can to make it so.

Since then, healthcare has topped the list of voters' most important issues for a long time now and there is much to suggest that it will continue to do so.

And just as you write, elderly care is likely to be important as well.

Many questions in other words :)

SVT · Elisabeth Marmorstein

10 Dec 202017.19

The Center Party has now in practice granted an amnesty to all unaccompanied minors.


Just a day after they said they would not hear it.


Why?

Christian

Hi Christian, what they have said yes to is the change that the MP has undergone which means that someone who has been in Sweden for a long time should be able to get a residence permit due to particularly painful circumstances.

C describes it as a safety valve, not an amnesty.

What they said no to last week was easing of the upper secondary school law and they did so with the argument that the legislation should be predictable and general.

But there was also a strategic dimension in the position where they wanted to mark distance to the MP and V. However, this led to internal protests, which I think is one of the reasons why they wanted to say yes to the other additions to the Migration Committee's proposal today.

SVT · Elisabeth Marmorstein

10 Dec 202017.10

Hey !

Why can one not go back to a one-party government?

Lars E

Hi Lars, because it is required either that a party for its own majority, which will not happen, or that a sufficient number of parliamentary parties accept that a party forms a government on its own.

As you know, we have negative parliamentarism, which means that a prime minister cannot have a majority against him.

SVT · Elisabeth Marmorstein

10 Dec 202017.04

Hey!

What do you think of the 4% limit, should it be adjusted in any direction?

Other countries have different limit values.

Have a second question.

Right now there are 8 parties in the Riksdag.

To form a majority in the Riksdag, it is required that 5 parties vote in the same direction.

What will future election strategies look like when no party will get more than 50% of the votes.

Will we vote for a predetermined group of parties rather than an individual party?

What do you think it will look like for the next parliamentary election?

Eva

Hi Eva, I have no opinion on the parliamentary block, but to change it would take a long time and I hardly think that the parties have any interest in it, especially not the small ones.

But it is clear that the fragmented party system has made it more difficult to create strong governments.

One would have thought that the parties after the long government formation had most recently wanted to adjust this in some way, but I have not seen any movement in that direction.

Then when it comes to your second question, my answer is no.

I think the parties more than the recent elections will go to the polls on their own, but open to different collaborations of course.

SVT · Elisabeth Marmorstein

10 Dec 202016.52

Hi.

Do we in Sweden really need so many political parties?

Should not be enough with 3 pcs.

a left, a center and a right party.

It seems rather outdated as it is now.

Put all this party money on healthcare instead.

No

Hi Inga, possibly a matter of course but we have so many parties that the voters on election day think we should have.

SVT · Elisabeth Marmorstein

10 Dec 202016.49

How conservative is the right-liberal flank really?

Is not the problem that the leadership is unable to gather a social liberal consensus in the party and in the center?

Such an agreement can cooperate both right and left.

And probably take votes from two directions as well?

Anki

Hi Anki, we do not know if the strategy you are describing would work because L has not tested that route seriously.

The party elected a party leader who was against the January collaboration, thus abandoning that alternative.

It is possible that they choose that path in the future, but in that case I think it will happen with another person at the helm.

It would probably also require them to change policy in some areas as well.

SVT · Elisabeth Marmorstein

10 Dec 202016.42

Given that the opposition is usually at its strongest at this time during the term of office, does not say very little that Stefan Löfven will lose the election in almost two years ??

Andreas Eriksson

Hi Andreas, as you know, a lot can happen in just under two years, but it is clear that it is a sign of weakness for the opposition that they are not better off now, just over two years into the term of office.

If M, KD and SD are to get a majority, they need to attract more voters across the traditional block boundary instead of exchanging voters with each other.

We saw a tendency for this in Statistics Sweden's survey when M for the first time in a long time had a flow from S. If it holds up, it is written in the stars, but these possible block exchanges are of course an important group of voters on both sides.

SVT · Elisabeth Marmorstein

10 Dec 202016.35

According to surveys, V's voters have a fairly clear profile of being civil servants and academics.

Why do they put so much energy on LO members and collective employees?

Mats

Hi Mats, because they see it as their main opportunity to grow, especially when S cooperates with bourgeois parties.

As you know, the V wants to be a redder variant of the S, the "real workers' party" if you will, and through it attract dissatisfied left-leaning Social Democrats.

And if you look at the latest Statistics Sweden survey, they have also strengthened their position in the LO collective, but they have continued far to both S and SD's levels.

SVT · Elisabeth Marmorstein

10 Dec 202016.28

When following politics closely: how do you experience the political game?

Is it difficult to see through?

How are you thinking?

J-Å

Hi J-Å, you have worked with politics for as long as I have, it is not that difficult to read the political game.

But in recent years, I too have been surprised by some maneuvers.

Then the game is just part of politics as luck would have it.

SVT · Elisabeth Marmorstein