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The Prime Minister rolled his eyes.
A journalist had asked him a what-if-question.
And juggled all sorts of hypotheses.
Armin Laschet mumbled slightly unwillingly “what-if, what-if, what-if” - as if he wanted to say that one cannot plan all eventualities in advance.
Back then, in 2020, during a background discussion in the State Chancellery, he may have thought that way.
In 2021 he can no longer afford that.
Choice will have grave consequences
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At the weekend he stands for election as CDU federal chairman.
And whether Laschet wins or not, the choice is likely to have serious consequences, and possibly even trigger a chain reaction.
For NRW.
For the government.
And for the Prime Minister himself. Which is why some what-if questions urgently need to be answered.
What if Laschet loses the CDU election?
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All hopes for a Chancellor Laschet would be buried - if he were to lose to Friedrich Merz or Norbert Röttgen at the digital election party conference on January 16.
This would also be a defeat for large parts of the CDU leadership in NRW.
After all, the CDU state executive in February 2020 voted with an overwhelming majority for Laschet and against Merz and Röttgen.
However, some CDU board members voted for Laschet at the time because they believed you shouldn't stab your own prime minister in the back.
They acted out of a sense of duty, not out of enthusiasm for their husband from NRW.
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This loyalty to the damaged state chairman would decrease if the vigorous federal chairman, whether Merz or Röttgen, also came from North Rhine-Westphalia.
Opposition is also following the election
Laschet would then have to expect far more headwinds in the regional association.
On top of that, he would be sure of the painful comments from the opposition.
SPD parliamentary group leader Thomas Kutschaty has already teased that in the event of Laschet's defeat, “you have to ask the question: Can he still remain Prime Minister in North Rhine-Westphalia?”.
Laschet would be "badly hit if, as chairman of the largest regional association and deputy federal chairman, he doesn't manage to organize the majority at the party congress".
In an interview with WELT, Kutschaty predicted: "Then an uncomfortable question would be asked of Laschet's constant companion: It wasn't enough for Berlin, but should it be enough for Düsseldorf?"
What if Laschet wins the CDU election?
Should he be elected head of the federal CDU, however, the popularity of the country father, who is moderately popular in North Rhine-Westphalia, should initially increase.
The influence of the NRW CDU on the course of the federal party is also growing - which could pay off, among other things, in the billions of dollars in the coal phase-out.
Party presidency in federal and state possible
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As a further consequence, some commentators predict that the state CDU would then have to elect a new chairman immediately.
Laschet could not exercise the party chairmanship in federal and state at the same time.
But that's not true.
At the request of WELT, NRW-CDU spokeswoman Katja Heins said that from a purely legal point of view, Laschet could lead the federal and state levels in personal union for an unlimited period.
“There's no clock ticking,” says Heins.
That fits Laschet into the concept.
Because for the election of a new state chairman you need a state party conference.
There Laschet would have to show his colors on a sensitive issue: whether he would only give up the office of prime minister as Chancellor - or if, after losing the Bundestag election in Berlin, he would only be left with the role of parliamentary group and opposition leader.
State party conference only in April
Laschet could hardly avoid such a public determination at a state party congress, because there the list of candidates of the NRW CDU for the federal election has to be passed.
If Laschet did not appear on the list, it would be clear that he is not even ready to move to the Bundestag.
In order not to have to explain himself unnecessarily early, Laschet wants to postpone the state party conference to the time after Easter (early April).
Only then do the CDU and CSU want to name the candidate for chancellor.
And only when his name is Laschet does he have to make it clear whether he intends to stay in Berlin in the event of defeat.
As a result, months should pass before the state party conference.
In any case, Bodo Löttgen, the chairman of the CDU parliamentary group, is promoting it.
Due to the pandemic, only one digital party conference is possible for the time being, he said.
Corona pandemic makes planning difficult
But: “The organizational effort required for a legally secure digital party congress with list elections would be too great according to current knowledge.
That is why it is wise to wait a few months until we can hold the party conference in face-to-face format - even if it comes down to the end of spring or the beginning of summer. "
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What if Laschet does not become a candidate for Chancellor?
Should Laschet become party leader in the federal government, he would by no means be placed as a candidate for chancellor.
It cannot be ruled out that he might have to give way to someone else.
But Laschet could sell this kink in his career while saving his face: he would have cut back for the sake of the party.
For him, the well-being of the Union would be above the ego.
In addition, the CDU state executive thinks it is quite possible that Laschet would negotiate something in return for his withdrawal on the chancellor question: support for his long-term stay in the post of CDU chief.
Laschet himself is now convinced that he can agree the office of Prime Minister in North Rhine-Westphalia with that of the CDU chief in the federal government.
The fact that the opposition would then revile him as part-time prime minister, who would be more in Berlin than in Düsseldorf, is believed in his environment to be bearable.
What if he loses in September?
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If the Aachen resident should apply for chancellor in the federal election on September 26th, he could theoretically lose.
Would the Union parliamentary group then elect him as its chairman?
Would she revile him the other way round?
Or would they ask him to take on the role of opposition leader?
All of this is unclear.
Laschet is still keeping all options open
This is another reason why Laschet would like to keep options open - including those of continuing to govern as Prime Minister in North Rhine-Westphalia after a defeat in the federal government.
After all, several prime ministers have already lost federal elections and then won big wins in their state.
For example Edmund Stoiber in Bavaria or Johannes Rau in North Rhine-Westphalia.
In the digital candidate check of the Ruhr-CDU, Laschet recently referred to Rau.
According to Laschet, he was “Prime Minister, ran for office, was then Prime Minister again.
The examples in Germany have almost always been like this ”.
Reul as successor for CDU state chairmanship
This attempt to close as few doors as possible also explains why Laschet's environment as a successor candidate for the CDU state chairmanship usually only spreads one name: that of Interior Minister Herbert Reul.
Because he does not want to replace Laschet as Prime Minister.
After losing the Bundestag election, the Aachen resident could work with him without fear of frictions and competition caused by his profile.
For this reason, another name is hardly used for this post: that of Transport Minister Hendrik Wüst.
He would certainly not turn down the father's job.
What if Laschet is elected Chancellor?
Should 2021 go as well as possible for Laschet, he would be chancellor at the end of the year.
The NRW CDU would then have to find a new Prime Minister.
According to the NRW constitution, he must be a member of the state parliament.
Which is why many candidates who do not have a state parliament mandate leave.
Next year there will also be elections in NRW
Only Wüst and Löttgen remained in the race.
The former as a young, ambitious favorite, the latter as an experienced politician with outsider charm.
But whoever succeeds Laschet - he would have to become better known as quickly as possible.
Elections will take place in NRW in May 2022.
What, in turn, the SPD is placing its hopes on: The Prime Minister might then be hardly better known than his SPD challenger.
Thanks to a chain reaction that started on January 16th.