It makes its full presence visible on the local and international arenas
Germany faces the unknown with Merkel's retirement
Merkel prepares to carry her papers and leave.
EPA
Merkel's Christian Democrats faces an uncertain future.
A.F.B.
Armin Laschet is the most fortunate candidate to succeed Merkel.
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German Health Minister Jens Young.
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German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, the prominent woman of state and influence on the international stage, is set to retire from politics this year.
Germany will have to find a figure behind it in running the country, but the way to achieve this is still far from clear.
In his memoirs, former US President Barack Obama praised the German chancellor for having "strong and unwavering patience," but with the start of 2021, this patience is about to run out.
Merkel will not run for re-election in the upcoming general elections in Germany, which are scheduled to take place next September, and her retirement leaves the country's political future wide open at a critical juncture.
After taking power over a period of 16 years, during which she lived with three American presidents, four French presidents, five British prime ministers, and seven like them in Italy, Merkel could outpace the late Chancellor Helmut Kohl, as Germany's longest-serving leader in power, after the World War. The second, depending on how long the coalition talks will last.
After all that time, "Merkel's entitlement to a place on the record of fame remains surprisingly inconclusive," says Konstantis Steltsenmüller, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Mixed record
First, there is the mixed record of the 66-year-old chancellor in the field of business activities and the economy. “The Merkel era has seen Germany very quickly move from the status of (the sick man of Europe) to the fourth largest economy in the world, with living standards rising dramatically.” .
However, she said: "The scandals, from (Diesel Gate) to the (Warcard) tragedy, reveal an institutional culture with many flaws and resistance to accountability."
Although Merkel's open-door policy towards refugees at the height of 2015 may have led to declarations of praise and praise for her, she was the driving force of the Alternative for Germany, which was previously a marginal right-wing party, to become the largest opposition force in The country is in full view and care of Merkel.
Strong legacy
On the international scene, Merkel's legacy draws strength from her skillful diplomacy, which was witnessed at the numerous summits held by the European Union and the Group of Seven.
"Nevertheless, Merkel will remain in memory just as much, because of her hesitation and commitment to the method of gradual change, which often provokes anger," Steltsenmüller said.
Nevertheless, Merkel could leave with great success, as her popularity and the Christian Democratic Union rose in popularity during the 2020 crisis year.
However, her party could not count on the victories it achieved.
Before Germany can choose a new leader, the CDU must choose a leader, and the long conservative process of electing the party’s leadership, which the Corona virus has prolonged, threatens to destabilize the party, at a time when it must set its sights on the 2021 prize .
German Defense Minister Ingret Kramp Karenbauer is currently the leader of the Christian Democratic Union, after Merkel supported her as her successor in 2018, but Kramp Karenbauer announced last February that she would not run for the chancellor, and pledged to hand over the reins of running the party’s affairs to whoever would run for this position.
But the extent to which the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) continues in Germany as the center party, according to the vision of its leader Angela Merkel, even after her departure, depends on the person who is elected to lead it in this year's elections.
The three contenders to replace Kramp Karenbauer are: Frederick Mears, a wealthy lawyer and businessman, Armin Laschet, prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, the most populous state in Germany, and Norbert Roettgen, a foreign policy expert who has pledged closer ties with the United States, while He supported the policy of seclusion from Russia.
Supporters of Merz, the more right-wing of the three, claimed that he could recapture the voters that the CDU lost and turned to the Alternative for Germany.
The preferred choice
On the one hand, Laschet is Merkel's preferred choice, and is expected to make more contributions, as she did for the center-right party.
The party conferences scheduled to elect a leader twice fell victim to the Corona pandemic, and the first time was in April of last year, and this was followed by another cancellation of the elections in December of the same year.
The head of European affairs at the German Commercial Bank, Alexander Prevera, said that the recent delay "has reopened old wounds within the party and undermined self-confidence."
Merz criticized the delay, claiming that it was part of the "party establishment" efforts to prevent him from taking over its leadership.
Kramp Karenbauer dismissed this criticism as part of a conspiracy theory.
The 16th of January has been set as a new date for the decisive party conference, but it will not be the usual gathering that the 1001 CDU delegates will personally attend.
Instead, party leadership elections will be held online, and later ratified in a mail vote, to circumvent German laws that prevent a political party from electing its leader entirely online.
The brightness of the star of the Minister of Health
Although elections have been held for the Christian Democrats, the future leader of the party may not have the support to become the candidate for the position of chancellor, bearing in mind that any decision on this must be made in consultation with the Christian Democratic Party's sister regional party, the Christian Social Union.
The leader of the Christian Social Union has been nominated as a potential contender for the high position in German politics, and he has been using the pandemic to support his position beyond his state of Bavaria.
On the other hand, the brightness of the health minister’s star, Jens Young, during the Corona virus crisis, led to speculation that he might enter the race at the last minute to lead the Christian Democratic Union Party.
"It is well received by conservatives, backed by a year of experience in the finance ministry, as well as by progressives, because it is openly gay," Alexander Prevera, head of European affairs at German Commercial Bank, wrote in a recent blog.
Either way, the road to life without Merkel remains long, as she continues to exert her influence during the pandemic, including at the European Union level, where she played a major role in the bloc's handling of the looming recession.
“While under normal circumstances, any advisor in his last year in office will slowly turn into a lame duck, there is still no indication that this will be the case for Merkel, but on the contrary, she makes her full presence tangible. The local and international arenas ».
“The upcoming general elections in the fall of 2021 still look very far away indeed,” said Perfitera.
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The Merkel era witnessed Germany moving very quickly from the status of "the sick man of Europe" to the fourth largest economy in the world, with living standards rising significantly.
On the international scene, Merkel's legacy derives its strength from her skillful diplomatic skills, which were seen at the numerous summits held by the European Union and the Group of Seven.
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