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Berlin (dpa) - There are minimal changes in the genome, but they have it all: Certain new variants of the Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus are apparently spreading faster than those that have been circulating so far.
The consequences of this could be: more infected people, more sick people, a higher burden on the health system, more deaths.
Politicians in Germany are therefore calling for a tough response to this threat.
But is that really necessary?
Researchers emphasize that the new variant could make it more difficult to contain the pandemic.
Based on the available data, it seems likely that B.1.1.7 will soon also be the dominant variant in Germany, says virologist Jörg Timm from the University Hospital Düsseldorf.
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«I think a reduction in the number of cases is fundamentally necessary for sustainable infection control.
If the data on the increased infectivity of the new variant is correct - and I assume it - then the task will certainly be more difficult. "
Viruses change over time.
It is about mutations, i.e. tiny modifications in the genome.
You can influence the properties of a virus, for example making it more harmless or even more dangerous.
In Sars-CoV-2, such mutations have apparently made the virus more easily transmitted.
One variant, B.1.1.7, was initially detected in Great Britain, but has now been confirmed in several other countries - including Germany.
In addition, South Africa reported another variant in mid-December, 501Y.V2.
The two variants are genetically similar, but according to the World Health Organization, they developed independently of one another.
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It is not entirely clear how widespread variant B.1.1.7 is already in this country.
One reason for this: In Germany, the virus genome is deciphered significantly less often in people infected with corona than in Great Britain, for example.
But this is important in order to discover new variants at an early stage.
So far, we have only known isolated cases of B.1.1.7, for example in Baden-Württemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia.
The Robert Koch Institute expects more cases to come.
Experts are currently not assuming that the corona vaccines approved to date will have a worse effect against the two variants - however, it cannot be ruled out that such pathogens can still develop.
A more severe course of the disease due to B.1.1.7 is also not assumed.
However, there is increasing evidence that the variant identified in Great Britain is spreading significantly faster than earlier forms.
A British research team led by Erik Volz from Imperial College London came to the conclusion that the so-called R-value for B.1.1.7 is 0.4 to 0.7 higher under the local conditions.
The R value indicates how many other people an infected person infects on average.
According to the RKI, the R-value in Germany is currently around 1, with no distinction made between variants.
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On Tuesday, Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) and the heads of government of the federal states wanted to discuss how to proceed in the pandemic.
SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach demanded in advance with reference to the new virus variant: "There must be a consistent shutdown in order to reduce the new incidence rate to 25 per 100,000 inhabitants in seven days."
Saarland's Prime Minister Tobias Hans (CDU) warned against hasty easing of the corona measures.
The federal and state governments should not take any further risks, especially with regard to B.1.1.7, he told the newspapers of the Funke media group.
"We have to slow down the spread of Sars-CoV-2 and its new variants with really tough measures," said Jeremy Farrar to the "Spiegel".
He speaks out quite clearly against the rapid opening of schools in Germany.
"Such a measure would greatly accelerate the spread of the virus and the new variant," said Farrar, who is director of the Wellcome Trust, a large foundation that promotes health research.
Adam Lauring, an expert on the evolution of RNA viruses at the University of Michigan in the United States, said in a podcast: "Decision makers will think about what to do about corona rules."
Because the variant is spreading faster, such measures would have to be stricter to achieve the same effect in containment.
“We have to get better at the measures we take to control the virus.
If not, we will see more corona cases. "
That means more serious illnesses and more deaths.
© dpa-infocom, dpa: 210105-99-904338 / 2
Imperial College preprint study et al
Imperial College PM on preprint study
Podcast with Adam Lauring
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Adam Lauring's website
PHE investigation for the new virus variant
WHO on Sars-CoV-2 variants
RKI management report from 3.1.