What do we know about the new mutated versions of the new Corona?

The emergence of two new mutated versions of the SARS-Cove-2 virus, known as the emerging corona virus, in the United Kingdom and South Africa, raises a lot of concern at the global level, especially since they are more infectious according to the first data.

Here's what we know about them.

What are these two mutated copies?

All viruses mutate.

These mutations are mutations or changes that occur when viruses replicate.

Scientists have observed multiple mutations in the SARS-Cove-2 virus since its emergence, the vast majority of which have been ineffective, but some of these mutations may give the virus a survival advantage, which is, for example, in increasing its transmissibility and spread.

The origin of the variable B 1.1.7 which is considered the first significant shift (VOC 202012/01) "probably" dates back to September in southeast England, according to Imperial College London.

And it quickly spread throughout the United Kingdom before it was announced that it was found in dozens of countries around the world, from the United States to South Korea, passing through India, France and Denmark.

Most of these cases are related to the United Kingdom, but for a small number of cases it was not possible to find any link to any country, which means that this variable has already established itself at the local level.

This is also the case in Denmark, which is one of the countries that does the virus genome sequencing on a large scale, with 86 cases identified (with increasing frequency).

Another mutated version, called 501, is now circulating for the majority of cases in South Africa.

It was discovered in samples dating back to October and then observed in a few other countries around the world, including the United Kingdom and France.

Experts suggest that the number of cases detected is less than the reality for both variables.

The two mutated copies exhibit several mutations, one of which was called N501Y and is now the focus of attention.

This mutation is located on the protein of the emerging corona virus, and it is a lump on its surface that allows it to bind to a receptor in human cells to penetrate it, and from here it plays a major role in viral infection.

This mutation is known to increase the ability of the virus to bind to the cell's receptor.

However, "there is no clear specific relationship between binding to the cell receptor and increasing transmissibility, but the existence of such a relationship is reasonable," according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control.

Increased transmissibility of the virus?

Several scientific studies that have not yet been peer-reviewed and are mainly based on modeling have concluded that the British modified version is more transmissible.

This confirms the initial assessments of the Advisory Group on New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats, which advises the British government, and estimated that transmission has increased by 50 to 70%.

Hence, according to the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine calculations, the British mutated virus is 50 to 74% more contagious.

In the latest report released Thursday, researchers at Imperial College London analyzed thousands of SARS-Cove-2 virus genomes sequenced between October and December.

And after following two different methods, they concluded that this mutated version has a "great advantage" that increases its ability to transmit infection by 50 to 75%, or increases the rate of virus reproduction by 0.4 to 0.7, compared to normal copies.

Preliminary results for the South African version also show higher portability, but less data is available on it.

However, some experts say the data is insufficient to assess with certainty the extent of infection of both copies.

The director of infectious diseases at the French Public Health Agency, Bruno Quagnier, told France-Presse: "We must be careful. The result related to the rate of transmission is a set of factors that combine the characteristics of the virus but also the prevention and control measures in place" such as social distancing, wearing a mask and closing institutions that receive the public, And so on.

More problematic?

The European Center for Disease Prevention says that "there is no information indicating that the infection caused by these viral strains is more dangerous", but that the risk of "hospitalization and death is high."

He adds that "high transmissibility means at the end of the day a greater number of cases, and then even if it causes similar mortality rates, this means greater pressure on the health system."

British epidemiologist Adam Kucharsky stresses, based on the statistical evidence, that "a 50% higher susceptibility to infection would pose a much bigger problem than a mutated version that causes 50% higher mortality."

He explains on Twitter that with a reproduction rate of 1.1, a mortality rate of 0.8%, and 10,000 infected people, we could have 129 deaths a month later.

If the death rate increases by 50%, then the number of deaths will reach 193. But if the transmission rate increases by 50%, we will have 978 deaths.

The impact will be particularly greater in countries where a slight increase in transmissibility raises the reproduction rate higher than 1, thus accelerating the spread of the epidemic.

Epidemiologist Arnaud Fontane, a member of the scientific council that advises the French government, has warned that the British modified version "is really a concern at the moment" because it "could push us into a very complex situation."

In addition, the first studies on the British variant also show a higher rate of infections among young people under the age of 20, which raises the issue of opening schools or keeping them closed.

Hence, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine study estimates that containment measures such as those introduced in the UK in November will not be effective enough to control the outbreak "unless schools, colleges and universities close as well."

How effective are vaccines?

While vaccination campaigns are just beginning to provide hope for a way out of this global health crisis, some are questioning the ability of vaccines to fight the new mutated versions.

The European Center for Disease Prevention says that "at this stage there is not enough information available to estimate (whether the copies constitute) a risk to the effectiveness of the vaccines."

But last Wednesday, Henry Walk, of the American Center for Disease Prevention and Control, said during a press conference that "based on what we currently know, experts believe that the current vaccines will be effective against the two strains."

For its part, the German company Biontech, which produced with Pfizer the US the first vaccine against Covid-19 that obtained the license, confirmed that it is able, if necessary, to prepare a new vaccine "within six weeks."

 How can you fight it?

Bruno Quagnier believes it is "an illusion" to believe that we can eliminate the mutated copies or prevent them from spreading altogether, noting that the focus should be on "delaying their dissemination as much as possible".

Hence, the European Center for Disease Prevention recommends that countries where the new mutated versions are not widely spread “make efforts to slow the spread, similar to those made at the beginning of the epidemic,” such as testing people coming from areas where there are risks with the possibility of quarantine, isolation and tracking. Enhanced contact, and reduce travel "to what is there."

It also calls for monitoring the spread of these copies, especially by increasing the genome sequence of viral samples.

Professor Fontaneh explains that some polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests to detect infection with Covid-19 can give an indication of the presence of the British version, and this helps improve the process of genetic sequencing, stressing the need for "very strict monitoring."

At the individual level, Walk says that "because these two versions seem to spread more easily, we must be more careful in our preventive measures to slow the spread of Covid-19," recommending a face mask, physical distancing, hand washing and indoor ventilation without neglecting to avoid places Crowding.

Follow our latest local and sports news, and the latest political and economic developments via Google news