Israel receives the year 2021 loaded and burdened with the challenges and internal crises that have accompanied it for years and deepened during 2020, in the event that a scene is framed to escape forward to get rid of these crises, and to seek to employ the achievements and fruits of normalization to cause a military, political, economic, social and health breakthrough, and to arrange the internal house after the chaos of the Corona pandemic.
And it is proceeding at a steady pace to hold new elections in the first quarter of this year, the fourth in a little over two years, in a scenario that perpetuates the crisis of governance and leadership that it is experiencing, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dominated the joints of government, as he faces the struggle to stay on the presidency in light of corruption files .
With the blurring of the internal political scene, Israel lives in a state of ambiguity in everything related to the Palestinian issue and the continuing tension on the Gaza front, despite the regional alliances it has sought and the unconditional normalization of relations with the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan.
Tel Aviv anticipates the approach and policy of the US President-elect Joe Biden's administration towards the Netanyahu government and the incendiary files, most notably: the Iranian nuclear agreement, the Palestinian Authority, the Arab-Israeli conflict, regional interventions in the Gulf and the eastern Mediterranean conflict.
The far-right speech is being strengthened in Israeli society (Al Jazeera)
A governance and leadership crisis,
Israel is experiencing for the second year in a row a crisis of leadership and instability of governance, and is heading to the fourth elections in 2021, where it is betting on the resolution of the fund, due to the absence of Netanyahu, who is facing corruption files from the political scene, amid splits in the party map and a split in the Likud party led by MK Gideon Sa'ar This is accompanied by divisions within the right and center camps, with an almost complete absence of the Zionist left camp.
Amidst the state of fragmentation and division, opinion polls show a decline in the power of the Netanyahu bloc that could lead to the formation of the next government, with the strengthening of the bloc opposing Netanyahu's assumption of the premiership in the future, but without determining the identity of the alternative prime minister, who will need the support of the deputies of the Joint Arab List. It increases the complexities of the political scene and keeps the scene of alliances between the Jewish parties blurred.
Netanyahu seeks to immunize himself from trial and imprisonment after corruption charges were brought against him (Al-Jazeera)
Netanyahu trial
In anticipation of settling the fund, Netanyahu, who is nicknamed "the King of Israel", faces, in February 2021, the first session of his trial in 3 corruption files, including bribery, fraud and breach of trust, provided that the deliberations take place in 3 sessions per week, and Netanyahu is required to attend the appeals sessions And the proof stage personally.
And after 4 years of repeating the phrase "there will be nothing referring to corruption files, because there is nothing," Netanyahu will appear before the panel of judges in the Jerusalem District Court, after he failed, after the 23rd Knesset elections in March 2020, to pass the law that It is prohibited to investigate or prosecute the Prime Minister during his tenure.
The first shipment of "Pfizer" vaccine against Corona arrives in Israel (Al Jazeera)
Corona pandemic
Netanyahu succeeded in employing the Corona pandemic in the political scene, as he dismantled the "Blue and White" generals party after the March elections, and formed with Defense Minister Benny Gantz an emergency government coalition to confront the pandemic and its health and economic consequences, but without being able to fortify the government coalition that He had the support of 73 members of the Knesset.
Israel will enter the year 2021 with the decline in economic growth, about 800,000 unemployed, 850,000 families living below the poverty line and another 656,000 suffering from food insecurity, and betting on trade exchange with Abu Dhabi to encourage its economy, and the volume of Israeli commercial exports is expected to reach The UAE has $ 600 million in 2021, excluding security and military exports that are kept secret.
In order to enhance his chances of resolving the fourth elections and manage the crisis of corruption files by remaining prime minister, Netanyahu seeks, in addition to economic initiatives and attracting investments from the printed Gulf countries, to announce the health paper by providing the "Pfizer" vaccine against the Corona virus, which will be given to Israelis during the first half of the year. This year, it is estimated that this will contribute to the growth of the economy by about 5%.
Netanyahu will miss a "friend" Trump in the political scene for 2021 (Al Jazeera)
The "Abraham" and the Iranian nuclear
agreement The Israeli establishment considers the "Abraham" agreement and normalization as a political achievement of historical significance for Israel's regional position. An assessment of the position of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University indicates that the rationale for building an anti-Iran front requires Israel takes military action to its allies even in cases where there is no existential threat to the Jewish state.
Therefore, new assessments in the Middle East require the government to prepare the Israeli public for ideas and commitments that it did not recognize in the past, such as a regional military participation in which it fulfills the role that the United States was playing on behalf of Tel Aviv.
With Biden arriving at the White House, and despite his lukewarm relationship with Netanyahu, the Begin-Sadat Center proposes that Tel Aviv do its utmost to slow Washington’s disengagement from the region and restore its presence to the Middle East, because the strong US-Israeli partnership is the basis for the success of the new axis that is developing in the region opposite the Iranian axis, according to For the center.
Attendance .. The absence
and in the midst of shuffling the cards that Israel is experiencing with the change of the White House administration, and the absence of outgoing President Donald Trump from the scene by 2021, Tel Aviv is looking to open a new page with Biden due to the deposits that Netanyahu left during President Barack Obama's term.
The US President-elect made statements about the new administration's intention to fulfill its promise to return to the nuclear deal, and to lift the sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration if Tehran fully complies with its obligations.
The Israeli military leadership is monitoring the developments on the northern front (Al-Jazeera)
War and the export of crises.
Wars and specific military operations have always been the means to export internal crises in Israel, and with the consolidation of the Iranian military position in Syria and the consolidation of Hezbollah's hegemony over the political scene in Lebanon, it seems clear that the military cooperation of Tehran and the armed factions along the ceasefire line in the occupied Golan creates new challenges. For Israel in the next war on the northern front.
According to the assessment of the position issued by the National Security Research Center of Tel Aviv University, the next confrontation expected in 2021 will be different from its predecessors, and it is expected that it will include Lebanon, Syria and even western Iraq, despite estimates that indicate the unwillingness of Israel, Iran and Hezbollah for the outbreak of an all-out war.
The year 2021 will put the Israeli army before unconventional military challenges through a multi-stage war called the "Northern War" and a military confrontation on several fronts, near and far, with the aim of nullifying the threat of precision missiles, basic capabilities and unconventional weapons.