Accelerated Restructuring of Regional Relations
Where is the road to peace and development in the Middle East?
After the US military sent two B52 bombers to fly on the Iranian coastline on December 31, 2020, the Associated Press reported on January 1, 2021 that the US military decided to withdraw the aircraft carrier "Nimitz" deployed in the Persian Gulf. .
Prior to this, the US Navy announced the deployment of a nuclear-powered submarine and two guided-missile cruisers in the Persian Gulf on December 21, 2020.
On the same day, Israeli public broadcasting also reported that a dolphin-class submarine of the Israeli army was heading to the Gulf.
At the same time, in order to prevent US attacks, Iran has also strengthened air defenses near nuclear facilities and deployed missiles and drones near the border with Iraq.
With the arrival of the first anniversary of the death of the senior Iranian general Soleimani, the tension in US-Iran relations has further escalated. The chaos in the Middle East is at an initial stage and there is no end in sight.
U.S.-Iraq continued armed confrontation
"The U.S. military rarely discloses the activities of submarines. This high-profile deployment is obviously not for war." Li Shaoxian, dean of the Arab Academy of Ningxia University and dean of the Chinese Academy of Arab States, said in an interview with this newspaper.
On November 27, 2020, Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fahrizad was assassinated and killed.
Although no country or organization has announced responsibility for this incident, the Iranian side believes that Israel has a major suspicion, and many people speculate that the United States will have no escape.
And January 3, 2021 is the first anniversary of the death of Iranian General Soleimani.
Li Shaoxian said: "If you compare the United States and Iran to a cat and a mouse, the mouse is overwhelmed and the cat is also afraid of Iranian retaliation. In fact, neither the United States nor Iran has the will to engage in large-scale conflict. Trump just wants to tell Iran that once Americans are killed, the consequences are very serious."
Promote the reorganization of regional relations
In just three months, the UAE, Morocco, Sudan, and Bahrain resumed normal diplomatic relations with Israel under the push of the United States.
After the UAE established diplomatic relations with Israel, the United States agreed to sell advanced F35 fighters to the UAE.
For Morocco, the United States recognizes its sovereignty in Western Sahara.
Sudan and Bahrain also established diplomatic relations with Israel under the high pressure of the United States.
Does the reorganization of regional international relations promoted by the United States mean that the United States, Iran and Arab countries are allied against Iran?
Will it lead to further imbalances in international relations in the Middle East?
Li Shaoxian said: "These Arab countries approached Israel completely out of their own interests. They are not going to fight against Iran. On the contrary, this situation shows that the Middle East is further divided under the original situation of scattered sand."
The reorganization of international relations in the Middle East is not limited to the establishment of diplomatic relations between the four Arab countries and Israel. At the same time, Qatar, Libya and Turkey have approached, and Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, etc. are also actively or passively forming groups with Iran...
Li Shaoxian believes: "This is not the formation of a certain front, but more of a reflection of the very weakness of the Arab world. This situation is due to the Middle East order established under the full leadership of the United States after the Cold War. After that, a series of US initiatives in the Middle East collapsed. The current situation is that the United States is retreating, and Russia and Europe have not completely filled this vacuum, which has led to the gradual rise of power in the region."
The Middle East faces profound changes
In the past year, the Middle East has experienced a double whammy.
The first is the plunge in oil prices, which has a huge impact on oil-producing countries along the Persian Gulf.
Second, the epidemic in the Middle East is also very serious.
What kind of changes this social background will bring to the Middle East has aroused people's discussion.
"The era of high oil prices is over. The world is promoting new energy, energy conservation, emission reduction, carbon neutrality, etc. It is predicted that the use of fossil energy will reach its peak around 2040, and then it will decline irreversibly. The impact is far-reaching." Li Shaoxian said.
The declining dependence of the entire world on fossil energy means that the rich life of oil-producing countries is gone forever.
Changes in the economic income of these countries will have a huge impact on the entire Middle East region.
Li Shaoxian believes that the impact can be divided into two aspects:
"Internally, this has brought a great test to the rule of the monarchy. The era of oil rents in the past has passed, and now we have to go through more difficult days. Oil-producing countries are used to comfortable days, and now the country has a fiscal deficit, and each country All are levying more taxes and reducing welfare subsidies. Whether the transition can be smooth will be a big challenge."
“Externally, these oil and gas-owned countries have a great impact on the Middle East. A large number of Arab countries in the Middle East have actually benefited from these oil-producing countries and accepted their assistance. After the oil-producing countries suffered a severe setback, on the one hand, , The aid from oil-producing countries will be reduced; on the other hand, in countries that did not produce oil in the past, there are a lot of people working in Gulf oil-producing countries. For example, Egypt has millions of people working in the Gulf region, and their remittances constitute the country’s development. Important sources of funding, these will be affected."
Author: Rui plus Pan Ziyi