Biden finished identifying the main names in charge of managing the foreign policy file, which released many statements and some details of the features and objectives of US foreign policy, and the statements of the assigned team came to confirm what Biden spoke during his election campaign, and broadcast messages to the outside world that America is returning - inevitably - To lead the world.
It is apparent and available until now and until Biden takes office next month on the features of foreign policy;
It is what was released from electoral statements and promises, which raises questions about the extent of American presidents ’commitment and implementation of their promises and electoral statements. In this regard, studies have confirmed that President Obama fulfilled 48% of his promises, and bargained for 26% of the promises, he implemented a small part of them, and did not implement 24%, and that Trump fulfilled 21 promises, did not implement 25 promises, and 7 promises, a compromise solution was sought, while 7 promises are still under implementation.
He gave these examples about the extent to which US presidents committed themselves to the promises they made during the election campaigns, both internally and externally, but led to an exploration of the possibility of studying and anticipating the future regarding Biden's election promises.
Also interesting is Biden's severe criticism of Trump's policies and the contradictory proposals of his foreign policies, which raised questions about what foreign policy Biden will pursue, especially in the Middle East, and how closely it is compatible with the policies of the Obama administration, of which Biden and his team of candidates were a major part of it.
Although the prognosis is premature;
However, it can be said that despite the convergence of some titles between Biden and the Obama administration (peace based on the two-state solution, negotiations with Iran, and criticism of some traditional ally countries in the areas of human rights);
However, it is expected that the two administrations (Biden and Obama) will witness a contradiction in the mechanisms and approaches, a difference in details, and a divergence in the results based on the following:
Obama's policy has been characterized by caution and a slow withdrawal from many of the Middle East crises and issues, while Biden calls for a return to leading the world, and this requires greater involvement in Middle East issues.
The area of movement and the amount of freedom in front of Biden will be more restricted
Because of the great impact that Trump left, and the changes in the scene in some issues (the curtailment of the dynamic Islam movements, the Israeli-Gulf normalization), and the reality that a number of Middle Eastern countries are experiencing (complex and interrelated crises).
Tabaiden was at odds with Obama over many issues related to the Middle East (Biden sympathized with former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak during the popular uprising against him, reservations about military intervention in Libya, support for the war on Iraq), in addition to the fact that the candidate for the State Department had previously criticized Obama's policy towards some of the region's files (Syria, Iranian behavior in the region ...) In a reading of Biden's statements and promises, despite their competition, the Middle East is expected to be a central point in the priorities of American foreign action;
Whether with regard to the region’s peculiarities or their overlap with other priorities for the US administration.
In light of this bleak picture of the reality of the Middle East, the new US administration will find itself faced with an urgent necessity to search for effective tools and mature approaches to deal with the scene, and it will also find itself forced to search for unconventional scenarios in dealing with the region's crises.
Although there is confusion and lack of clarity regarding some of Biden's statements in terms of their seriousness, ability to achieve them, and the extent of their acceptance, such as his speech about dividing Iraq into 3 Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish countries.
Based on this importance, the region will witness in the coming period a political movement and tangible diplomatic activity, not only regarding the relations of the region’s countries with America.
Rather, it is towards the relations of these countries with each other, which may have already begun, for example (the Jordanian-Israeli contacts, and the Gulf reconciliation attempts).
Although the Middle East and its files are not new to Biden and his team, and they have deep and sufficient experience to deal with the problems of the region;
However, the Middle East today is in a different image from its previous stages, which can be depicted as follows:
Arab countries suffer from intractable crises, and their crisis has become a solution to the crisis. The Arab reality is witnessing the existence of a group of failed states suffering from a vacuum or the loss of full power (Syria, Libya, Yemen), while Iraq and Lebanon seem closer to these countries, if they continue their status The current, and there is a group of exhausted countries (Egypt, Morocco, Jordan), which suffer from a chronic economic decline that has limited their ability to move regionally, while the so-called rich oil countries have led to the decline in global oil prices, and the impact of the Corona epidemic on their economies and the well-being of their people In addition to the loose ties between them, and their entry into the arena of wars and military operations.
The regional scene depicts a severe rush by the countries of the region (Iran, Turkey, and Israel) to obtain the largest amount of gains, and to consolidate their influence in the Arab world in a tangled and intertwined manner that contributed to deepening the crises, helped by a direct Russian intervention in more than one Arab crisis. The reality in the Middle East, which will soon clash with the new US administration, which will discover that the matter is far from fixing what has spoiled Trump, and that intentions and promises alone are not sufficient to withstand the solution of these crises.
In light of this bleak picture of the reality of the Middle East, the new US administration will find itself faced with an urgent necessity to search for effective tools and mature approaches to deal with the scene, and it will also find itself forced to search for unconventional scenarios in dealing with the region's crises, and we refer here to the following scenarios, which The American administration may resort to it:
Correlating paths: The
essence of this approach is dictated by the reality of US interests in the Middle East, which represent a single package that affects and influences each other on the one hand, and on the other hand the nature of the region’s crises and problems, which are considered an interconnected chain, and what drives the adoption of this approach is the US administration’s desire for urgent change. An immediate reform of Trump's policy, as this approach gives the US administration the preference for bartering to move the main files, on more than one level and in more than one direction, despite the failure of one of its tracks reflected negatively on the rest of the tracks.
The peace process, the Iranian nuclear file, and Iranian relations with its surroundings, are the biggest examples of the interlocking of files that encourage the pursuit of the concomitant paths as a chain linked to each other and more like dominoes.
The scenario of winning deals and successful approaches:
which may be resorted to based on the facts of the region and its complex crises, and to ensure that it does not delve deeply into its issues, and proceed from the part to the whole, and what helps the success of such an approach is the vision of some countries in the region to the Biden administration as an administration (opportunity Sane);
Including (Iran, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority), and within this approach, the role of supportive tools may also be activated, in order to touch their role in a way that guarantees US interests and eases the burdens on them.
For example, activating the role of the United Nations in some countries of the region (Syria, Libya).
Regardless of the approaches and tools, the US administration will follow in managing the region's files;
However, the accurate assessment is pushing towards describing the American role as (crisis management) instead of "crisis solutions", in the most extreme of which reaching half-solutions and freezing differences, with soft power under the titles;
Negotiation (an agreement on negotiations with Iran), active diplomacy (guarantees of a two-state solution, openness and greater normalization with Israel), containment (Turkey), values and human rights (a breakthrough in some Arab countries in the field of freedoms), and activating the international role (Syria, Libya and Yemen Bearing in mind that the new administration's goals will be focused towards achieving American interests and values, which require that America be in an advanced position in world leadership, and not necessarily on the basis of the interests and agendas of traditional regional partners, as long as there is something that guarantees the security and safety of Israel and combating Terrorism, maintaining the flow of oil, and observing the American value system.
In the end: It must be pointed out that if this is the reality of the region, which the US administration will deal with, then there are harbingers that threaten the emergence of more impactful and harsh challenges on the countries of the region, whose effects range from painful to exhausting, and that may affect the state’s structure.
Which:
The Corona epidemic will have profound economic and political effects, and it includes all Arab countries.
A challenge arising from the effects of Corona and the inevitable result of its secretions is the creation of "demand currents", broader and more comprehensive than what the region witnessed during the Arab Spring period from unframed currents that proceed from the blockage of the horizon, reject compromises, and do not count against opposition organizations or movements that reject the extent that they express black The greatest of the peoples of the region.
My limit is to deal with the file of terrorism in light of its move to the virtual world and the electronic caliphate, after losing its presence on the ground geographically, and its continued existence is an element that pursues decentralization and relies on media tools.