The Iraqis are still living the repercussions of the assassination of the Iranian Quds Force commander, Qassem Suleimani, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Authority, on January 3, 2020, with an American raid near Baghdad International Airport.

And coinciding with the anniversary of their assassination, the Iraqis are holding their breath from the possibility of an American-Iranian confrontation in Iraq, through the launching of armed Shiite groups "loyal" to Iran attacks on American interests in the country.

Since the assassination, armed Shiite groups in Iraq, as well as Iran, have threatened with "revenge" against Suleimani and Al-Muhandis, and with every threat, the Iraqis expect the capital, Baghdad, to be the scene of the Iranian reaction.

Al-Kubaisi believes that Iran will be the biggest loser from any confrontation with America (Al Jazeera)

Pressure paper

The advisor of the Iraqi Center for Strategic Studies, Yahya Al-Kubaisi, says to Al-Jazeera Net that it is not possible for Iran to enter into an armed confrontation, even if limited, with the United States, because it knows that it will be the biggest loser in it, "but it is playing, and not fighting, with the United States in Iraq through its proxies." .

He added, "Iraq is the only arena in which the Americans and the Iranians are face to face, there is no presence of the Americans in Lebanon or Yemen, and the American presence in Syria is far from the influence of the Iranians. As for the card of revenge and its use, it will depend on the nature of the forthcoming negotiations between the United States and Iran, if successful." You will forget this paper completely, but in the event that it falters, you can use the vengeance shirt and a paper to press. "

Washington also fears that the storming of the US embassy in Baghdad will be renewed with the anniversary of the assassination of Soleimani and the engineer. On Monday, it donated 30 armored cars to the Iraqi army to secure the Green Zone in central Baghdad, coinciding with the first anniversary of the "Hezbollah Brigades" storming its embassy in Iraq.

With all these threats, the Iraqi government headed by Mustafa Al-Kazemi is making efforts to calm the situation between the two parties and prevent any military action inside its territory, and on the anniversary of their assassination it granted an official holiday in the country without explaining the reasons for that.

Al-Tamimi said that Iraq is the appropriate stage for the Iranian response to America (Al-Jazeera)

Type of response

Iraqi political analyst Hashem al-Kindi, who is considered one of the most prominent defenders of the Shiite factions, says, "Revenge for the blood of Soleimani and al-Muhandis may not necessarily be military. Iran and the loyal factions have a vision and strategy regarding the reaction, and it will be taken at the appropriate time."

He added to Al-Jazeera Net, "It is America that uses Iraq as an arena to settle its accounts, not Iran, and the Shiite factions consider the American presence in Iraq an occupation, so it is legally and legally the duty to respond to the occupation."

The Iranian ambassador to Iraq, Iraj Masjedi, is trying to "reassure" the Iraqis about "not using Iraq as an arena for revenge for Suleimani," but at the same time he says, "revenge for him will be by removing the American forces," according to statements made a few days ago during a memorial held by the Iranian embassy in Baghdad on the occasion of the annual assassination. Suleimani and the engineer.

Iraqi political analyst Ghaith Tamimi said, "Iraq remains the main arena in the confrontation between the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and its opponents, and it is the main arena for the Iranian influence strategy, because the Iranians are unable to respond to the Americans (in a place) other than Iraq."

"The response in Iraq if it occurs will be by armed factions and not by Iranian forces," he told Al-Jazeera Net, "ruling out that there will be a response because all that Iran is doing is an attempt to pressure in order to negotiate its interests."

During an interview with him on January 1 this year, the Secretary-General of the "Asaib Ahl al-Haq" movement, Qais Khazali, confirmed that "revenge for Suleimani and the engineer is a religion in our necks, and we have no timings." While a source in Al-Asaib told Al-Jazeera Net, "Everything is ready to respond." Military, we are only waiting for the green light. "