● Pessimistic public opinion dominance despite the prospect of'recovery' in 2021 The
● Pessimistic public opinion dominance despite the prospect of'recovery' in 2021 The
New Year of the Year, a symbol of diligence and sincerity, has begun.
A cow who was strong, but gentle and well-served, and was considered the number one on the list.
However, the voice of hope in the'Year of the White Cow' is being pressed by the rapid spread of Corona 19.
According to the'Prospects for the New Year 2021' released on the 31st of last month through a public opinion poll by Gallup Korea, only 11% of Koreans think that'there will be better living in this year'.
In the 2017 survey in which President Moon Jae-in took office, the forecast, which rose to 19%, fell to 11% in 2018 and slightly increased to 12% in 2019, but fell back to 11%.
On the other hand, 33% of respondents said'the new year's livelihood will get worse', which is 4%p higher than 29% in 2019.
There are three times as many responses that it will be worse than the response that the living will be better.
When it comes to questions about the new year's economy, the response that it will improve stayed at 10%, the same as in the previous year, but 49% answered that it will become worse, up 3%p from the previous year.
However, the global economy, which was the worst since World War II due to Corona 19 last year, is expected to show a strong recovery from the second half of the year as it gradually recovers from shock.
Bloomberg compiled the forecasts of 37 institutions, including the world-class investment banks (IBs) and economic research institutes, and found that this year's global economic growth forecast average was 5.2%.
It is predicted that the global economic growth rate, which recorded -3.8% last year in the aftermath of Corona 19, will rebound rapidly this year.
The growth rate of the Korean economy, which was -1.1% last year, for the first time since the financial crisis, is expected to show 3.2% this year.
It is analyzed that the economic recovery, which had been contracted by Corona 19, will accelerate as the supply of vaccines and treatments expands, and the government's economic stimulus policy and monetary policy easing.
● Expected to escape the pandemic of Corona 19 from the second half of this year
According to World O Meter, the corona 19 mutant virus that occurred in the UK and South Africa spread rapidly around the world, and as of the morning of January 2, there were 84 million cumulative corona 19 cases The number of deaths and cumulative deaths exceeded 1.38 million.
Of the confirmed cases, 59 million have recovered, and 22 million are currently infected.
Last month, a vaccine jointly developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca was approved for emergency use following the Corona 19 vaccine jointly developed by US pharmaceutical company Pfizer and German Biontech in the UK, and Pfizer vaccine and Modena vaccine were approved for use in the United States.
Three COVID-19 vaccines were approved in the UK and the US and started vaccination.
Vaccinations developed in-house have also begun in China and Russia.
According to World O Meter, the recovery rate of corona19 confirmed patients around the world rose to 97% at the end of last year, which fell to 79% in April last year, when the first spread of Corona19.
The Corona 19 mortality rate, which reached 20% in April last year, has fallen to the 3% level.
Infectious disease experts predict that from the second half of this year, the world will be able to gradually escape from the long tunnel of Corona 19 through the expansion of vaccination and the development of treatments.
It is predicted that as the year-end and New Year blockade, which was strengthened in the northern hemisphere, will be gradually lifted, economic activity will be able to return to normal.
●Will Corona 19
The Year of the Rat, 2020, was a year of unprecedented volatility due to the attack of Corona 19 that no one had predicted.
The corona 19 virus outbreak in Wuhan, China, spread to the United States, South America, Africa and Asia through Europe and the Middle East, paralyzing the economic activities of people around the globe.
After the end of World War II in 1945, stock prices and oil prices plunged due to the most severe economic downturn.
The US Dow Index plunged 34% in 33 days and fell to the 18,000 mark on March 23rd.
As aircraft, ships, and cars stopped, demand for oil declined and storage space became scarce. Western Texas Heavy Oil (WTI) prices dropped to $37 on April 20.
However, the crisis has turned into an opportunity with the U.S. Fed and other central banks' interest rate cuts, increased money supply, and unprecedented fiscal execution by governments in response to Corona 19.
The Dow Index ended 2020 with an all-time high of 30,606, up 64% from the lowest in March and 7.3% annually.
The Nasdaq Index rose 43.6% per year to close at 12,888, while the S&P Index rose 16.3% per year.
Korea's KOSPI fell to 1,439 during the intraday on March 19, 2020, and ended at an all-time high of 2,873.47 as the ship rose for the next nine months.
The KOSPI rose 676 points per year, up 30.7%.
As the unemployed people surged and the real economy was stagnating, the economic growth rate recorded negative, but stock and real estate prices soared, and Main Street, which refers to the real economy, and Wall Street, which refers to the financial market, diverge. The Great Divide phenomenon appeared.
Although the performance of airlines, cruise ship companies, travel agencies, and energy companies has deteriorated, the stock prices of high-tech companies such as Zoom, an e-commerce company, Amazon, an electric vehicle manufacturer, and semiconductor companies, are skyrocketing. The differentiation was also clear.
2020, which was hit by Corona 19, is also the year when the gap between the rich and the poor widened its record.
The real economy continued to slump amid the shock of Corona 19, but the money released to the largest ever by lowering interest rates and expanding fiscal execution increased stock and real estate prices, widening the income gap between the rich and the poor.
According to CNBC, employment in the U.S. with an annual income of $60,000 or more increased 1.2% from pre-Corona 19, but employment of those with an annual salary of less than $27,000 was 19%, and between $27,000 and $60K Silver decreased by 4%.
CNBC reported that US stocks and funds are mostly held by wealthy white people with college degrees or higher.
By wealth level, the top 1% owns 52.7% of stocks and funds.
By educational background, 82.8% of colleges and above owned the stocks and 89.5% of the stocks and funds by race.
Low-income families lost their jobs due to Corona 19 and were alienated from rising stock and real estate prices.
The polarization of wealth among the classes has become more severe than ever, as the classes most hit by Corona 19 do not benefit from rising asset prices.
The overwhelmingly large number of pessimistic outlooks in Gallup's survey of household and economic outlook seems to disprove that far more people are struggling with this widening polarization.
With the development of vaccines and treatments, the war on Corona 19 is expected to be gradually lifted this year.
At the end of the war, the monetary policy and fiscal policy support of each country, which had been carried out without fire, is expected to gradually decrease.
The debt issue, which has grown on a massive scale as it is lifted in an emergency, is expected to emerge, and bankruptcy of companies and households with poor financial conditions is expected to increase.
Analysis is also gaining strength that inflation will rise as demand, which had been contracted amid the weakened supply base of goods and services due to the Corona 19 crisis, and that the stock price, which had soared to the ceiling, will inevitably be adjusted.
Some experts say the situation in 2020 is similar to the dot-com bubble era of 1999.
In preparation for the so-called Y2K outbreak, a huge amount of money was released, and the stock price of technology companies rose while showing a Do Not Ask pattern, and in 2000, the technology bubble burst and stock price was adjusted.
● "It will be another turbulent year in 2021" On
January 20th, President Trump, who had shaken the world order in the United States, withdraws and the next President Joe Biden takes office. President Biden, who will influence the U.S. and world order for the next four years, is pursuing a policy course that is opposite to President Trump in that he values the environment rather than indiscreet growth, and values diversity, social equity, and cooperation between allies.
2021 is also the first year of the UK's complete withdrawal from the EU. This year, which begins amid the widespread corona 19, is expected to be another turbulent year in this regard.
The British economist predicted that '21' will be a year in which risks and opportunities coexist with the same volatility as last year.
1. Vaccine battle As the
COVID-19 vaccine becomes available in mass production, attention will now shift from vaccine development to vaccine distribution. Conflicts between countries and classes are expected over who will get the vaccine and when. It also matters how many people will refuse to get the vaccine.
2. Sporadic economic recovery The
economy crushed by Corona 19 will rebound, but the recovery will not appear evenly. As Corona 19 sporadically reappears everywhere, governments could revive regional blockades, while supporting insolvent companies and helping workers who lost their jobs. The gap between strong and weak companies will widen.
3. Restoration of global disorder
It is of interest whether the newly inaugurated US President Joe Biden can restore the collapsed international order. The Paris Climate Agreement and the nuclear agreement with Iran will be the starting point. However, as the collapse of the international order has occurred before President Trump, Biden will not be able to completely restore the international order.
4. Intensifying US-China conflict
Don't expect Biden to end the trade war with China. Biden will work in solidarity with his allies to make the trade war with China more effective. Countries in Africa and Southeast Asia are doing their best not to take sides in a situation where the US-China conflict is intensifying.
5. Firms' Exposure to Geopolitical Conflicts
Another front line of US-China conflict is business activities. More than just Huawei and TikTok, more companies are being exposed to geopolitical battles. Managers are under pressure from the bottom as well as from the top. There is increasing pressure from workers and customers on climate change and social justice that the government has put hands on.
6. Tech-celaration After that, in
19 accelerated the adoption of technology from video conferences to online shopping to remote work and distance education. This trend will continue in 2021.
7. Reduction in travel and changes in behavior
Overall, domestic travel will increase while travel is decreasing. Universities that rely on airlines, hotels, aircraft manufacturers, and international students will face challenges. Cultural exchanges will also suffer.
8. There is an opportunity for climate change As
governments around the world run green projects to create jobs and reduce emissions, there will be opportunities in climate change. At the UN Conference on Climate Change, which was postponed in 2020, we are interested in how countries will present their emission reduction targets.
2021 will be similar in many respects to 2020 in that it intends to reopen political, sports, and commercial events such as the
Olympic and Dubai Expo, which are similar to 2020.
10. The rise of other dangers
Scholars and analysts who have warned of the outbreak of infectious diseases for many years will come to warn of risk factors that have been under-warning, such as antibiotic resistance and nuclear terrorism.