China News Service, January 1st (Li Hongyu) At 23:00 local time on December 31, 2020, with the official end of the Brexit transition period, the Brexit "marathon" that has lasted for more than four years has finally come to an end. The Anglo-European relationship of "do not cut chaos, but chaos" has entered a new historical stage.

　　Based on the agreement reached through difficult negotiations, how will the future relationship between the UK and the EU develop?

What impact will the series of changes triggered by Brexit have on Britain and Europe?

Data map: British Prime Minister Johnson.

A paper agreement puts an end to the "breakup" of Britain and Europe?

　　After a referendum, two general elections, three prime ministers, and more than four years of "struggle", at the end of 2020, the United Kingdom finally reached a "Brexit" trade agreement with the European Union, dispelling the "no-deal Brexit" that has been hanging over Britain and Europe for many years. haze.

　　According to reports, this agreement covers European and British goods and services trade, investment, competition, taxation, transportation, energy, fisheries and other aspects.

　　According to the agreement, after January 1, 2021, both parties will implement zero tariffs and zero quotas on all commodities subject to the rules of origin.

As for the fishery issue that once became the "bottleneck" of the negotiations, the two sides will formulate a new framework for joint management of fishery resources in European and British waters, taking into account the interests of each other's fisheries and fishermen.

　　When announcing the conclusion of the agreement, British Prime Minister Johnson said that Britain has regained control of its own destiny and laws, and believes that the agreement will bring new stability to Britain-Europe relations.

　　However, reaching an agreement does not mean that the story of Brexit will end.

The lack of financial services, the transitional arrangements in the agreement... According to Zhou Hong, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, "the contradiction between Britain and Europe has not been fundamentally resolved." Some "legacy issues" may pave the way for future conflicts .

On December 22, 2020, local time, in Ramsgate, UK, a truck waiting to cross the English Channel stopped on the runway of Manston Airport.

How does a "frontier inspection" change people's lives?

　　In fact, problems that may arise after Brexit have already surfaced.

　　In December 2020, when news of the mutant virus was discovered in the United Kingdom, many EU member states closed their borders to the United Kingdom. France even cut off the main freight route between Britain and France for a time, resulting in thousands of freight trucks heading for France stranded in Kent, United Kingdom. Long queues in the county also prevented freight trucks from continental Europe from entering the UK.

　　This situation is regarded by many as a daily rehearsal after the Brexit transition period.

　　"From January 1, 2021, EU law will no longer apply to the United Kingdom," an EU source said, which means that "the United Kingdom will become a third country for non-essential travel restrictions."

In other words, due to the current COVID-19 prevention measures, British citizens will face travel bans from most EU countries from January 2021.

　　But the "hidden worry" may be more than that.

According to data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC), about 30% of the food supply in the UK comes from the European Union, but the products of both parties will face stricter customs quarantine and supervision standards in the future, coupled with the slowing down of logistics and rising commodity prices. The shock to the supply of goods seems to have become inevitable.

Data map: Big Ben, Great Britain.

Can a farewell make Britain and Europe well?

　　After Britain's "Brexit", what is the way forward for both sides?

　　The single market and customs union leaving the European Union will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the British economy.

The Office of Budget Responsibility of the United Kingdom predicts that Brexit will cause Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) to fall by 4% in the next 15 years and lose tens of thousands of jobs.

　　The compromise made by the United Kingdom on the issue of fishing rights during the negotiations on the Brexit trade agreement actually hurt the fishing industry in the United Kingdom.

Zhou Hong analyzed, “For these parties whose interests have been harmed, the UK must have a re-arrangement. If there is no re-arrangement, the UK will face the possibility of internal disintegration and rising contradictions.”

　　The prospects of the EU are hardly optimistic.

According to former EU budget commissioner Gunther Ottinger, Brexit will create a funding gap of 12 to 15 billion euros each year.

It is also difficult for the EU to find other cities in the short term to replace London as a financial center.

　　More importantly, as a permanent member of the Security Council and a major EU economy, Brexit will inevitably impact the EU's international political and military influence.

While solving internal problems, the EU also needs to participate in the world game.

How to seek a broader space for development is a question that the EU has to think about.

Data map: On June 23, 2016, local time, the Brexit referendum kicked off, and vote-counting in various places was in progress.

A "Brexit" will change the process of European integration?

　　From the "Rome Treaty" to the "Maastricht Treaty" to the "Lisbon Treaty", from the coal and steel community of six countries to the European Union where 28 countries participated, looking back at the process of European integration over 70 years, Although it has gone through ups and downs, it is always possible to turn the danger into a bargain through "rational compromise."

　　However, a referendum in 2016 in the United Kingdom released the "black swan" of Brexit, which caused the EU to lose an important partner and set a precedent for countries to withdraw from the regional cooperation alliance.

In this regard, the country’s then central bank governor, Carney, once bluntly stated that Brexit is an example of “de-globalization”.

　　"Brexit is not a good example, but the domino effect led by the UK has not appeared." Zhou Hong pointed out, "In the four years since 2016, the difficult process of Brexit has caused many European Unions who are ready to move. The country recognizes that this is not worth the gain."

　　"Brexit will not have a decisive impact on the future development of Europe," Zhou Hong said. "There will be some changes in the process of European integration, but I do not see clear signs of disintegration for the time being."

On January 29, 2020 local time, the European Parliament approved the "Brexit" agreement.

After the vote, the parliamentarians hand in hand sang "A Long Friendship" to bid farewell to Britain.

China News Agency issued photos for EU

　　Recently, the "Guardian" published a comment that only in the UK, Brexit will be considered heroism; in the eyes of the outside world, this has always been an extremely stupid thing.

Britain must immediately rebuild the strategic alliance damaged by its withdrawal from the European Union and restore its reputation as a responsible country.

　　"The place we call the starting point is often the end, and the end is also another beginning." The "black swan" that was launched by Brexit has landed and returned to the forest, but this new relationship determined by the separation may be like the President of the European Commission According to Von der Lein, "sweet and sad", and whether the "freedom" that Britain has acquired at a huge price is worth it will be tested by time.

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