(Year-end Economic Observation) Will the world economy improve in 2021?
China News Service, Beijing, December 31st, title: Will the world economy improve in 2021?
Author Liu Liang
2020 is coming to an end. Looking back on this year, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought scars that cannot be erased to the world economy.
2021 is about to start. Under the background that the haze of the epidemic has not yet dissipated, what kind of recovery will the world economy show?
The world economy has suffered a historic shock
2020 is undoubtedly the worst year for the world economy.
Under this unprecedented global public health crisis, the circulation of the global industrial chain and supply chain has been blocked, and the economies of various countries are in deep recession. The widespread implementation of the "closure order" has caused aviation, retail, hotel, tourism and other industries to face " The darkest moment".
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that, affected by the epidemic, the world economy will shrink by 4.4% in 2020; the data released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development is not optimistic. In the first half of this year, global foreign direct investment (FDI) dropped by 49% year-on-year. It is expected to decrease by 40% throughout the year.
Many international observers pointed out that the epidemic has brought huge trauma to the production and demand sides of the world economy, and it is difficult for the world economy to return to the level before the epidemic in the short term.
Take the global aviation industry as an example. After the performance of many internationally renowned airlines has experienced an unprecedented "hard landing", the industry estimates that it will take at least four years for the performance to return to the level before the epidemic.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development pointed out that some companies and jobs that have closed down under the epidemic will be difficult to recover.
At the same time, the economic stimulus policies implemented in Europe, the United States and other regions may cause global debt to rise, which will affect the medium and long-term development of the world economy.
China will be the growth engine of the world economy
The performance of China's economy has amazed the world.
While the economies of various countries are "lighting up", the IMF said that China is the only major economy in the world that has achieved positive economic growth this year.
This undoubtedly brought a touch of color to the "darkest moment" of the world economy.
Despite a brief economic decline at the beginning of the year, China's economic recovery began in the second half of the year. In the third quarter, China's economy grew by 4.9% year-on-year.
At present, China's economy has achieved a positive change from negative to positive in the first three quarters.
In the context of the continued downturn in the world economy, China's economy has delivered a hard-won report card.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) recently released economic forecasts, stating that the world’s major economies are expected to achieve a wider recovery next year, but China still leads the world. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 8%, which is obviously Higher than the growth rate of other economies.
"Effective control of the epidemic has created favorable conditions for China's economic recovery. The first recovery of China's economy will lead the recovery of the world economy and become the engine of world economic growth." Alicia García Eyre, chief economist of the Asia-Pacific region of the French Foreign Trade Bank Lei Luo said.
Many international observers also pointed out that, judging from the forecast data released by major international institutions, China's economy is expected to continue to play the role of "locomotive" next year and contribute to the recovery of the world economy.
Will the world economy improve in 2021?
Although the road to world economic recovery is still full of doubts, from the current general public opinion, under the premise that the epidemic has not deteriorated again, the world economic recovery may be more optimistic.
The IMF said that next year the world economy is expected to usher in a bottoming out and achieve growth of about 5.2%.
The OECD predicts that the world economy will rebound by about 4.2%, and major economies are expected to recover next year.
The rapid advancement of new crown vaccine research and development in many countries has also brought hope to the global economy.
Huang Jianhui, Dean of China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, pointed out that the current impact of the epidemic on the economy has weakened, and the emergence of the new crown vaccine has added more certainty to the recovery of the world economy. situation.
At present, in most countries in the world, the epidemic is still like a "blocking way" and constitutes the biggest obstacle to recovery.
Recently, the mutation of the new coronavirus has inevitably caused new concerns.
But in the face of the epidemic, human beings are not helpless.
As the Director-General of the World Health Organization Tan Desai said, the new crown pneumonia epidemic may be the first controllable pandemic in history. Decisions made by governments, enterprises, communities, families and individuals can affect the development of this epidemic.
United Nations Secretary-General Guterres also called on the international community to face up to the crisis and difficulties caused by the epidemic, unite and live in harmony, and make 2021 a year of healing.
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