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Halle / Berlin (dpa) - From the perspective of economists and practitioners, new restructuring rules and the ongoing corona crisis will ensure that the number of company insolvencies will increase significantly in the coming year.
After the decreases in 2020, there will be a drastic increase in 2021, said restructuring expert Lucas Flöther of the German Press Agency.
"When entire industries are affected and the crisis fundamentally calls into question the business model of many, then a crater arises in the balance sheets that cannot be closed again with liquidity aids."
In addition, the Bundestag recently passed new restructuring rules.
They only allow corona-damaged companies to use the protective shield procedure to reorganize themselves on their own in 2021, even if they are insolvent.
Otherwise, this procedure is only possible in the event of impending insolvency, said Flöther.
"And it is a fact that many corona-damaged companies are insolvent."
He assumes that the number of insolvencies will also rise because many companies are using the protective shield.
The insolvency expert of the Institute for Economic Research in Halle (IWH), Steffen Müller, also expects the new rules to influence events.
It could be that small business owners in particular have delayed filing their bankruptcy, said Müller.
The reason: Anyone who goes through personal bankruptcy as a self-employed now only has to wait three years until they are released from their remaining debt.
So far it took twice as long.
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Overall, however, the IWH economist expects that the number of bankruptcies will initially only increase slowly.
Politicians will continue to try, with their help for companies, to prevent a wave of bankruptcies until the federal election in the fall, said Müller.
"That should be one of the strongest arguments."
As early as 2020, state aid and relaxed application requirements slowed the number of bankruptcies in Germany despite months of closure orders and the global corona crisis.
The credit agency Creditreform estimated at the beginning of December that around 16,300 companies would go bankrupt.
That would be 13.4 percent less than in 2019. The state rescue programs also ensured deadweight effects for real bankruptcy candidates, it said.
Were there perhaps silent bankruptcies in 2020, when entrepreneurs in the retail, catering and transport industries simply canceled their business?
The previous figures speak against it: According to the Federal Statistical Office, there were 16.5 percent fewer cancellations in the first nine months than in the same period of the previous year.
The decline is at a similar level to that of the bankruptcy figures, said IWH researcher Müller.
"That clearly speaks against the assumption that we are not seeing any increase in bankruptcies because entrepreneurs are quietly deregistering their business."
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Publication of the Institute for Economic Research on insolvencies in the Corona crisis
IWH insolvency trend
Federal Statistical Office on business registrations and de-registrations