In the last quarter of 2020, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt took a number of decisions, which observers see, the first of their kind since the group's founding in 1928, following the arrest of the acting general guide, Mahmoud Ezzat, on August 28, after 7 years of persecution and harassment.

Before that, Ezzat was acting as the guide with the assistance of an administrative committee inside, as well as a general Shura Council (the highest supervisory body), mostly abroad, in addition to a member of the guidance office holding the position of Secretary General (Mahmoud Hussein) and deputy guide (Ibrahim Munir) located in London.

After that, the scene reversed by naming Munir as an official of the group - for the first time from outside Egypt - and the freezing of the Guidance Office for the first time in the history of the group, the abolition of the position of Secretary-General, and the selection of a new administrative committee, in unprecedented decisions, which observers considered as an emergency surgery.

Last September, Munir issued two statements that spoke about a new phase for the group, the abolition of the name of the General Secretariat, and announced the formation of an administrative committee that would carry out the functions of the Guidance Office for a year or two, and its membership includes leaders, including the group’s former Secretary General Mahmoud Hussein.

These unprecedented developments sparked widespread debate among the group’s members and those interested in it, and reports and analyzes have emerged that speak of the widening division within the group, as Munir admitted, in a television interview, that there was “a shock that occurred as a result of the (internal) shift, which caused confusion due to the presence of the group’s leadership outside Egypt for the first time in its history. "

In addition to the above, and with the international and regional changes, and the rise of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi's criticism of the group by explicitly naming it for the first time during his recent visit to France, there have been speculations that the future of the group will witness an effective change during 2021, whether at the level of organizational stability or the relationship with the regime.

Cautious optimism

The official vision of the organization tends to be optimistic about the future of the group, and believes that the decisions it has taken during the recent period will have a positive impact during 2021, according to Muhammad Sudan, the Brotherhood leader and Secretary of Foreign Relations of the Freedom and Justice Party.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Sudan said that the group is taking good steps towards reunification and narrowing the spaces between the different points of view, after the formation of the administrative committee that includes leaders who have a positive weight on all parties, because of the awareness and awareness it enjoys to solve the group's crises, According to his opinion.

Regarding what some expect from the widening of the circle of splits, Sudan said that the group is on the verge of a stage of "healing the cohesion", but that the matter is going a little slowly, calling on the group's management committee to accelerate its steps in this path.

Sudan does not expect a radical change in the Brotherhood’s relationship with the Egyptian regime, pointing out that the military coup occurred during the era of the Obama government in which the new president-elect (Joe Biden) was his deputy, and most of the crimes and violations of the coup regime took place, but at the same time he did not rule out a limited breakthrough. By the release of opponents, other than the Islamic currents.

Regarding the possibility of the group's renewal of its effectiveness, Sudan pointed out that there are attempts to achieve this, but he believes that what the group is exposed to in particular and the opposition in general undermines those attempts, adding that the matter may change if Biden decides to replace Sisi, and this will only be through a new military coup.

Confusion persists

On the other hand, the former leader of the group, Ashraf Abdel Ghaffar, does not expect the Brotherhood to go to a state of organizational stability, even though more than 3 months have passed since the formation of the committee, he believes that no change was desired for it, due to the difference in the leadership on its positions, and the educational style followed with members The organization that made them not look to change.

While anticipating the occurrence of new splits in the organization, Abd al-Ghaffar (who opposes the current leadership) believes that it will be without effect except in the event that an entity deliberately seeks to change the reality of the group and works to revive it again. He also believes that any expected splits will not lead to the absence of the organization or Terminate it.

Regarding the future of the organization's relationship with the regime, Abdul Ghaffar expects - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that there will be a change, but in a slight way that does not affect the nature of the relationship or the existing situation, adding, "Perhaps the number of executions and the release of detainees may be reduced, without changing that from the plan. The targeted regime is to eliminate the Brotherhood. "

As for the organization of the group, the opposition leader believes that its interaction is slow with matters under the current leadership, which does not have a vision for the future, and is waiting for external matters to happen that cause a change in the situation, not through them.

The absence of an alternative

Ibrahim Al-Zafarani, the former leader of the group, bases his expectations for the organization's status in 2021 on two possibilities, the first of which is the continuation of the situation as it is, as the group remains in its state of weakness, fragmentation and ineffectiveness, even at its lowest levels.

In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Zafarani links this to the continuation of the current leadership of the organization, represented by Munir and Hussein, whom he sees as the controllers of the group and its decisions, regardless of the changes taking place, and he believes that they do not possess the appropriate limit of ability to manage and political work, and the courage to present real initiatives that change the reality The group is "degraded."

As for the other possibility for Al-Zafarani, it is based on the absence of the two aforementioned leaderships, which is only imagined by death, and at that time promising leaderships that can take difficult decisions are not seen as well on the horizon and have an influential role in bringing together the Brotherhood ranks again, in a way that enjoys respect, satisfaction and influential interaction .

Al-Zafarani believes that the continuation of Sisi at the helm of power helps the situation remain as it is.

But in the event of his absence, or the regional powers perceive a danger to their interests from the continuation of the situation as it is, it is possible that something will happen that will ease the burden on the Brotherhood, but without allowing their activities to return.

Zero battle

The researcher specializing in Islamic movements affairs, Mustafa Zahran believes that the group holds hopes for Biden's victory in the presidency of America, and that the situation will change during 2021, but the Egyptian House Iftaa’s support for considering the Saudi Scholars Association "the Brotherhood a terrorist group" reflects the will of the two institutions to send a message that the file of the Brotherhood in their countries It was closed and there is no room to open it.

Therefore, Zahran does not see - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that there are possibilities for a breakthrough in the scene of the relationship between the Brotherhood and the political system in Egypt, as the battle is in his estimation zero, and this is due to the presence of an Arab and Islamic alliance against the group, which no longer accepts its presence in the political and societal scene again.

The expert in Islamic movements also believes that the Brotherhood in Egypt is still far from any remarkable development through which it can demonstrate their awareness of the extent of the changes taking place in the region. The group did not take a step backward so that it could resolve the crises of its detainees, nor did it present a project to solve all its problems.