Will the stock price continue in 2021? -The child year of "prosperity" ○○○○'s ox year-December 30, 21:08

"It was a year like a roller coaster," as symbolized by the words of market participants, the stock market has made a dizzying move.

The Nikkei Stock Average was the highest in 31 years at the end of the year, despite the severe real economy caused by the spread of the new coronavirus.

According to the quote of the market, 2020 and child years are "prosperous".

2021 of the year of Ox is a "stumbling block".

What kind of stock market will 2021 be?

(Ryusuke Kimura, Keiichiro Furuichi, Reporter, Ministry of Economic Affairs)

A quiet and quiet party

On December 30, the Tokyo Stock Exchange held a big meeting to conclude the 2020 transaction.

In the usual year, it is customary to invite celebrities representing the year and have more than 600 market participants "tejime" to close the year's deal.

However, being at the mercy of the new coronavirus did not invite guests, and the number of participants was reduced to 40, making it a quiet big party.

However, the Nikkei Stock Average was the highest at the end of the year for the first time in 31 years, and an executive of the Tokyo Stock Exchange said, "I have never experienced a situation where trading stopped all day due to a system failure. It was a year. Anyway, I'm glad it ended in a rising market, "said Yasushi.

Like a roller coaster

This year's Nikkei Stock Average started from the 23,000 yen level.

As of January, the infection had already begun mainly in China, but some investors initially saw the new coronavirus as "like a seasonal cold," and the impact was strongly conscious. Was not done.

However, in February, the infection spread in Europe and the United States.

As restrictions on the movement of people and goods become tighter, pessimism about the future of the world economy will spread at once, and the world will take on the appearance of simultaneous stock price depreciation.

In the Tokyo market, the weekly price drop exceeded 3,300 yen in mid-March, surpassing the so-called "Black Monday" week of 1987.

It was the "Lehman shock" 12 years ago that struck the minds of market participants when selling called for selling.

I think there will be another financial crisis ...

However, stock prices have recovered steadily since then, and in September they recovered to pre-Corona levels.

This is because the central banks of each country, including Japan and the United States, have embarked on large-scale monetary easing one after another, and the government has moved to a huge amount of fiscal stimulus.

Furthermore, when Mr. Biden declared victory in the US presidential election in November, the market became more secure and the rise in stock prices accelerated.

Even after that, the Nikkei average maintained an upward trend with the expectation that a new coronavirus vaccine would be put into practical use, and the transaction ended in a rising market.

Do you see anything bad?

!!

Stock prices are said to "pre-empt" the outlook and do not always reflect the real economy.

Even with that in mind, the scale of GDP = gross domestic product has not returned to the level before the spread of the infection, and the infection has continued to spread again, and the infection of the mutated virus is also spreading.

Despite this situation, some market players say that there is also an investor sentiment that "do not see bad things" behind the continued rise in stock prices.

Market officials

"Many investors believe that monetary easing will be maintained as long as the outbreak continues. It seems that it is okay to pretend not to see the concerns at hand. If that happens, the psychology of "Don't miss the stock price!" Will work, and the movement to buy stocks will spread. "

Individual investors are also worried

Some individual investors are worried about the future.

Yutaro Mori, a 27-year-old office worker in Tokyo, started investing three years ago to prepare for the future and buys and sells stocks on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Over the past year, Mr. Mori has been able to increase the valuation of his stocks and investment trusts.

However, I am cautious about the market price of this year as "the benefits of the policy are strong."

Mr. Mori

"I feel unhealthy if the movement to support monetary policy if something continues. I also feel a gap with the real economy, and I am worried about how long the current upward phase will continue."

“K-shaped recovery”

Furthermore, there is a word that expresses the characteristics of the stock market this year, "K-shaped recovery".

This is because the stock prices of individual companies are polarized by industry.

The sharp rises in stock prices are in industries that benefit from the progress of digitalization and telework, such as "information / communications" and "precision equipment."

On the other hand, for "aviation" and "construction", which are greatly influenced by the new corona, the price drops are noticeable, and the light and dark are clearly separated depending on the type of industry.

The point of "stumbling" is

In 2020, the year of the rat, the maxim of the market is "prosperity."

If you look only at the stock price, you may not have been wrong.

The maxim of 2021 and Ox is "stumbling".

I'm a little worried, but Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Daiichi Seimei Keizai Kenkyusho, points out the following three points when looking at stock prices next year.

[1] Vaccine

[2] President-elect Joe Biden

[3] Earnings of Japanese companies

<Point 1 Vaccine>

Mr. Kumano mentioned the vaccine first, but he said that the stock market had already anticipated the effects of the vaccine, and expressed the following view.

Kumano, Chief Economist

"If vaccination actually progresses and leads to the end of infection, the Nikkei Stock Average may reach the 30,000 yen level. On the contrary, I expected it. If there is no effect, it may drop to 24,000 yen, and the stock market may be trying to determine how effective the vaccine will be from spring to the middle of the year. "

<Point 2 President-elect Biden> The

second

point

is the economic policy of President-elect Biden in the United States.

In addition to the recovery of the US economy, the point is what will happen to the relationship with China.

Kumano, Chief Economist

"President Biden's concrete economic policy has not been clarified yet. Whether the administration will start and whether it will be possible to implement an economic policy that will increase consumption, income and employment. And trade with China during President Trump's time. Will the war be turned around, or will the same tensions continue? If so, we cannot take a very bright view. "

<Point 3 Profit of Japanese companies> The

third point is the profit of Japanese companies.

Mr. Kumano pointed out that the stock market is not the current corporate profit, but the stock price will incorporate it while anticipating the future corporate profit.

Kumano Chief Economist

"The growth rate of Japan is very low or inferior to that of Europe and the United States, according to the forecasts of overseas international organizations. Therefore, domestic and foreign investors are growing more than Western companies, and Japanese companies Stock prices could fall if we start to take a slightly cautious view that will not grow much. "

Is the stock price an economic thermometer?

Until now, it has been said that stock prices are economic thermometers.

However, looking back on the stock market in 2020, when stock prices continued to rise despite the real economy, which has been severe due to the corona wreck, I feel that it is necessary to carefully determine whether it is really at an appropriate level. ..

In the prospect of convergence of the new corona is not stand, while achieving a balance between prevention and economic activity spread of infection, whether the economy can be a place in the recovery track, we would like to firmly watch through the coverage of the stock market I will.

Reporter of the Ministry of Economic Affairs

Ryusuke Kimura

Joined the

Bureau

in 2003

After working at the Fukui Bureau, the International Department, and the Berlin Branch, he

is in charge of the

current

financial industry.

Economy reporter

Furuichi AkiraIchiro

2014. He joined

the current affiliation through the Niigata stations

responsible for the financial industry