【Editor's Note】
On New Year's Day 2016, the comprehensive two-child policy was officially implemented, and the one-child policy, which had lasted for more than 30 years, gradually faded out.
This "policy gift" in line with national conditions and public opinion has high hopes: the country's working-age population is declining, aging is deepening, population structural problems can be improved, and families with two children can finally realize their dreams.
After five years, the birth rate did not rise but fell.
At the end of 2020, The Paper interviewed two-child family members of different family backgrounds, different occupations, different ages and genders, people who were determined but gave up their second child, and many scholars who have long studied population policy and economic development.
We hope to use sincere brushstrokes to record people's living conditions: no matter what choice you make, how are you doing now?
After all, the joys, sorrows, sorrows, firewood, oil and salt of every family are precious footnotes of this era.
We also hope that through a professional perspective, the various social issues hidden behind the topic of fertility can be presented.
The data all come from the National Annual Statistical Bulletin of the National Bureau of Statistics.
The "comprehensive two-child" policy has been implemented for five years, and my country's fertility level and birth population have not been improved as expected.
The Chinese have always had the traditional concept of "multiple children, more blessings", but why is it still difficult to achieve after the relaxation of policy restrictions?
Many scholars who study population and economics mentioned to The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that the most direct factor is the increase in childbirth costs, including housing, education, medical costs, and the more severe pension costs of the one-child generation. , And women are paying more and more attention to the opportunity cost of the workplace and other issues.
What's more noteworthy is that people's willingness to give birth to one child has also declined significantly.
Yang Chenggang, vice president of the Population Society and director of the Institute of Population Research of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, pointed out that among the population born in 2019, the proportion of the second child and above reached 59.5%, and the proportion of the first child was only 40.5%.
According to his analysis, such data shows that the two-child policy has exerted its due effect, but the birth rate of one child is "too low", that is, people's willingness to have one child has dropped significantly.
In other words, as time goes by, after the release of the second child's willingness accumulated in history is completed, if the current childbirth willingness continues to be maintained, the number of first and second children in the future will decline at an accelerated rate.
In 2019, in order to encourage more couples to have children, the State Council issued a document requiring all localities to start to promote the development of care services for infants and children under 3 years old and improve existing childcare services.
Many scholars have suggested that if we want to slow down the development of my country's declining birthrate and aging population, this is only the first step in encouraging fertility.
Next, more efforts must be made to encourage childbirth, such as economic subsidies to families that give birth and perfect protection of women’s employment rights.
The one-child birth rate has dropped significantly
People's intuitive feeling is that young people nowadays are less and less willing to have children.
However, what is the extent of this "unwillingness"?
Generally speaking, the "total fertility rate" is used to measure people's willingness to have children.
This concept refers to the average number of children born to each woman.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, before 1970, my country's total fertility rate averaged around 5.8; since 1991, the total fertility rate has continued to decline; after entering the 21st century, the fertility rate has dropped to a little bit.
The latest news comes from a recent article by Minister of Civil Affairs Li Jiheng. He mentioned that my country's total fertility rate has fallen below the warning line (ie 1.5), and population development has entered a critical turning period.
Many demographic experts talked about this in an interview with The Paper.
In other words, in simple terms, the average number of children born to women across the country is less than 1.5.
Internationally, it is generally believed that only when the total fertility rate reaches 2.1 can the number of people in each generation be stable. Once it falls below this level, there may be a risk of population shrinkage and a series of social problems.
It is precisely out of concerns about this potential risk that my country has implemented the "Second Child" and "Comprehensive Two-Child" policies in 2013 and 2015. It is hoped that the gradual liberalization of fertility restrictions will release people’s fertility needs, and thus Increase fertility.
However, relaxation of restrictions did not bring about the results that people expected.
The former National Health and Family Planning Commission once organized expert research and predicted that the annual number of births from 2016 to 2019 will be 17.67 million, 20.23 million, 20.82 million, and 19.82 million, of which the birth peak will appear in 2018.
However, official public data shows that only the number of births in 2016 reached a peak of 17.86 million, and there was a significant decline in 2018. The number of births in 2019 was only 14.65 million.
After the policy was liberalized, why did the birth population not rise but fall?
Zhang Yi, director of the Population and Employment Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, publicly stated earlier this year that the main reason was the sharp decline in the number of women of childbearing age during the booming childbirth period.
Compared with 2018, in 2020, the number of women of childbearing age (20-29 years old) in the vigorous childbearing period will be reduced by more than 6 million; even broadly, the number of women of childbearing age (15-49 years old) will also be reduced by more than 5 million people.
What's more noteworthy is that people's willingness to give birth to one child has also declined significantly.
Yang Chenggang, vice president of the Population Society and director of the Institute of Population Research of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, pointed out that among the population born in 2019, the proportion of the second child and above reached 59.5%, and the proportion of the first child was only 40.5%.
In his view, this shows that the two-child policy has played its due effect. The key problem is that people's willingness to have one child has dropped significantly, and the birth rate of one child is "too low."
If you compare the one-child birth ratio with past census data, this conclusion will be clearer.
In the fifth census in 2000, the one-child birth rate was about 68%. Ten years later, at the sixth census, it dropped to 62.17%. In less than ten years later, the proportion dropped to 40.5%.
In other words, as time goes by, after the release of the second child's willingness accumulated in history is completed, if the current childbirth willingness continues to be maintained, the number of first and second children in the future will decline at an accelerated rate.
For every couple, whether to decide whether to have or how many children, the first consideration is the fertility environment and cost.
Economist and Dean of Evergrande Research Institute Ren Zeping wrote an article this year to analyze that housing prices, education costs, and medical expenses have risen rapidly in recent years. The only-child “four two one” family structure has a heavy burden on the elderly, and the female labor participation rate has increased significantly. However, the protection of employment rights is not enough, and these objective conditions directly or indirectly lead to the increase of birth costs.
In addition, the fertility rate is also closely related to the level of socio-economic development.
Yang Chenggang said that the current fertility rates below the replacement level are all developed countries, and those with higher than replacement levels are mostly developing countries.
The rapid development of social economy, the improvement of industrialization and urbanization, higher requirements for labor quality, the popularization of education, the increase of female labor participation rate, etc., these changes will all point to the reduction of fertility rate.
"The United Nations has a more classic saying that development is the best contraceptive." Yang Chenggang said.
Zuo Xuejin, director of the Economic Research Institute of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, who has been studying population policy for a long time, listed more details related to fertility: in the modernization process, the concept of gender equality between men and women has strengthened, the proportion of women’s employment has become higher and higher, and they are competing in the workplace. Under intense circumstances, women who focus on the workplace are usually reluctant to have children, because having a child requires care at home, which will affect her work.
And giving up work means letting the husband make money alone to support the family, and the family is likely to face unbearable financial pressure.
Zuo Xuejin pointed out that the people value investment in children's education very much.
In addition, with the gradual improvement of social security, the traditional concept of raising children and protecting against the elderly has faded, which will also weaken people's willingness to bear children.
Expert: Low birthrate and aging that are easily overlooked
"Compared with the history of high fertility rate, the process of understanding low fertility rate is more difficult." In 2018, Professor Mao Zhuoyan of the School of Labor Economics of Capital University of Economics and Business wrote in his book "Research on China's Population Inertia".
She mentioned that in the long historical process, because humans have been unable to cope with high death levels for a long time, in order to ensure that humans will not be extinct, a set of social and cultural mechanisms have been formed to ensure a sufficiently high fertility level.
And because the world’s population has been growing for a long time, people usually don’t know much about the decrease in inertia, so they are very slow.
For example, the classic demographic transition theory believes that after the fertility rate drops to the replacement level, it will continue to maintain the replacement level, but facts have proved that the fertility rate in almost all countries will generally continue to decline after reaching the replacement level.
It was not until the beginning of the 21st century that demographers warned for the first time.
According to Mao Zhuoyan's analysis, my country's historical situation is more special, especially when the ultra-low fertility rate has been maintained for a long time and the total population is still increasing, the problem of low fertility is more likely to be ignored.
So, what will happen in a low-fertility society?
Both Yang Chenggang and Zuo Xuejin pointed out that the most direct challenge is the shortage of labor supply and the aging population: The National Economic and Social Development Statistics Bulletin shows that as of the end of 2019, the proportion of people over 65 in my country’s population has reached 12.6%. The standard for the proportion of a deeply aging society (14%).
In fact, my country has already entered an aging society in 2000. In recent years, the degree of aging has been continuously and rapidly deepening, and its scale and speed are among the best in the world.
On the other hand, the proportion of the working age (16-59 years old) population in an aging society also decreases.
Zuo Xuejin pointed out that this means that labor scarcity has increased, costs have risen, and the potential economic growth rate has decreased. At the same time, the number of people who pay pensions is relatively small, while the number of people who receive pensions is relatively large, which increases the burden of social security.
In addition, the medical insurance system will also be affected.
Public information shows that after many years of expansion, my country's working-age population declined after reaching the turning point in 2012 and has continued to this day.
Not only that, Yang Chenggang introduced that there are also "aging" characteristics among the people of working age in our country-there are relatively few young laborers between the ages of 16 and 34.
From the perspective of the level of economic development, my country's aging is also worrying.
Ren Zeping, Dean of Evergrande Research Institute, once made a comparison and found that when the proportion of the elderly population in the United States, Japan and South Korea was equivalent to the domestic data at the end of 2019, the per capita GDP was above 24,000 US dollars, while the domestic only 10,000 US dollars.
Huang Wenzheng, a senior researcher invited by the Global Think Tank and co-founder of the "Population and Future" website, analyzed that there are two factors leading to aging, one is the prolonged life expectancy of the population, and the other is the low fertility rate.
He believes that the former reflects the improvement of medical and health standards and is a good sign of the healthy development of society, while the latter is a "bad signal", which will not only continue to aggravate aging, but will eventually bring about the continuous shrinking of the population size, threatening Sustainable development of society.
Huang Wenzheng believes that compared with the aging population structure, the decline in population size will have a greater impact on the economy.
He pointed out that it is precisely because of the large population of our country that sufficient market segmentation has emerged to develop a complete range of industries and cultivate many talents.
For example, the emergence of airplanes, high-speed trains, the Internet, or mobile phones and high-speed iterations all benefit from the large population.
In his view, the reason why some small European countries can maintain a prosperous life with a small population is because to a large extent they are part of the whole of Europe and the Western world, and Europe and even Western countries are very important in terms of market, technology, education and even security. Highly integrated.
In other words, for any sovereign country, it is very important to have a sufficient population. It is the foundation of the country's rise and national rejuvenation, and it is a good factor for the people to enjoy a better life and even improve the environment.
However, coping with low fertility and reversing aging is difficult to accomplish overnight.
Huang Wenzheng has written many times that it is crucial to change the concept, but unfortunately, many people still think that the large population is China's disadvantage.
Even those who recognize the advantage of the population still have not fully estimated the severity of the low-fertility crisis, let alone the difficulty of raising the fertility rate.
Yang Chenggang also pointed out that population change is a relatively long-term process, so early attention and timely control are needed.
Actively respond to aging
In the process of dealing with the declining birthrate and aging population, topics such as whether to delay the statutory retirement age and how to care for the elderly have always been hot topics of concern from all walks of life.
At present, my country’s retirement system stipulates that the retirement age for men is 60, and that for women cadres and workers is 55 and 50, respectively.
As early as 2008, the Social Security Research Department of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security proposed to postpone retirement. It planned to postpone the retirement age for women by one year every three years and for men by one year every six years, and eventually raise it to 65 simultaneously.
In fact, in order to solve the problem of long-term pension in an aging society with a low birthrate, many developed countries have postponed the retirement age to 65 and above.
In November of this year: The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal clearly stated that the statutory retirement age will be gradually delayed and a multi-level and multi-pillar pension insurance system will be developed.
This move shows to a large extent the grim situation of my country's response to aging.
Zuo Xuejin said that from the actual situation, more and more elderly people have taken the initiative to delay retirement, and enterprises can be appropriately encouraged to hire elderly people.
Huang Wenzheng believes that the long-term low fertility rate has led to a decline in the proportion of young people, and delaying retirement may be a last resort.
However, it is worth noting that due to the lack of early childcare services, many families now rely heavily on inter-generational care in the early stages of childcare. If retirement is delayed, inter-generational care will become more difficult, which will increase the burden of parenting for young people. Instead, the gain will outweigh the loss.
Therefore, he suggested that this factor should be taken into consideration in the design of the system. For example, the elderly who bear the responsibility of intergenerational support can retire early and enjoy corresponding benefits.
Yang Chenggang also gave a similar view.
He believes that to develop the human resources of the elderly does not necessarily require the elderly to return to the job market, because the job market itself is classified. After all, the elderly who can return to the job market are few, and the jobs available for the elderly in the job market are also It is a relatively scarce resource.
On the contrary, if the elderly assist young people in raising children as a kind of "shadow dividend"-it is precisely because of the intergenerational support provided by the elderly that it provides the possibility of maintaining a high labor force participation rate for fertile women, then the elderly Also contributing to economic development.
Therefore, he emphasized that delaying retirement requires careful study.
In Yang Chenggang's view, the object of delaying retirement is the elderly who are in good health. At best, it is only the pressure of social support. The real challenge is the elderly and the elderly who are physically ill. They are inseparable from human care and more medical treatment. demand.
And this kind of challenge will be even more cruel for the only-child generation. "The pension problem is generally two things, one is money and the other is people."
In April 2019, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Development of Elderly Care Services", pointing out that the vitality of the elderly care service market has not been fully stimulated, and there are difficulties such as uneven development, insufficient effective supply, and low service quality, and proposed for the first time. Promote the integrated development of home, community, and institutional elderly care, such as supporting elderly care organizations to operate community elderly care service facilities, and providing services for the elderly at home.
Yang Chenggang pointed out that there have been a large number of newly built elderly care institutions in China, but the quality is not satisfactory, and most of them are difficult to provide standardized and diversified services.
He suggested that on the basis of drawing lessons from the facilities and management of elderly care institutions in Western countries, we should also use my country's traditional elderly care culture to accelerate the development of home- and community-based elderly care services.
After giving birth freely, how can you give birth with peace of mind?
In November of this year, the "14th Five-Year Plan" related to population policies mentioned for the first time "enhancing the inclusiveness of birth policies."
In response to the call for the full liberalization of three children in society, Zhai Zhenwu, president of the Chinese Society of Demography and professor of the Center for Population and Development Studies of Renmin University of China, said in an interview with Jiemian News that after the full liberalization of childbirth, the effect on the population situation is not obvious, so There is no need to add a link to it.
According to his estimation, independent childbirth will be released during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, but the specific time is still uncertain.
But the reality may be that even if the number restrictions are fully liberalized, families willing to have children are also worried about the birth environment.
Huang Wenzheng once combed the population policies of various countries and found that in countries where the fertility rate is below the replacement level, measures to encourage birth are extremely common.
These incentive policies include honor awards, economic assistance, birth and employment security, etc.
For example, the French government will issue the Republic Family Medal to families with 4 or more children. A certain Russian city government has set up a pregnancy day to hold a baby contest on this day, and participating families can get a day off.
Another example is Japan’s tax cuts for families with multiple children, and some companies even give economic incentives worth tens of thousands of yuan to employees who have children. Singapore provides supporting incentives worth hundreds of thousands of yuan to families with two children. Multi-child families can enjoy living concessions such as housing and car purchase.
In terms of childbirth and employment protection, Japanese women’s maternity leave and parental leave are as long as one year. Companies will also shorten the working hours for fathers of infants. After the women give birth, the government will assist them to return to work.
Companies must reserve positions for women in South Korea and Germany during childcare.
According to Huang Wenzheng’s observation, after the implementation of the encouragement policy, although no country other than Israel has been able to raise the fertility rate to a replacement level, those countries with strong encouragement, such as France and the Nordic countries, have relatively higher fertility rates. Fertility rates in Russia and Japan have also picked up slightly.
Zhai Zhenwu mentioned in the aforementioned interview that in order to further increase the fertility rate, my country has done a lot of research on the design of birth support policies and birth-friendly system.
Among them, the improvement of the childcare service system is being vigorously promoted.
In 2019, after the General Office of the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of Care Services for Infants and Children under 3 Years of Age", various localities have successively introduced implementation measures.
Recently, Ou Xiaoli, Director of the Department of Social Development of the National Development and Reform Commission, introduced that the National Development and Reform Commission is also promoting the inclusion of relevant content in the "14th Five-Year Plan" outline and formulating the "14th Five-Year Plan" childcare service system construction plan.
Many scholars have said that in addition to gradually loosening restrictions on the number of births, improving the supply of childcare services is only the first step in the country to encourage childbirth. If we want to slow the development of my country’s declining birthrate and aging population, we must increase encouragement as soon as possible. The intensity of childbirth, the implementation of economic subsidies for child-bearing families, and the improvement of women’s employment rights protection.
I hope that one day, individuals can choose not only their own reproductive choices, but also with peace of mind.
The Paper, News reporter Wen Xiaoxiao