In light of internal differences and external influences, what will happen to the Iraqi elections scheduled for mid-2021?

Iraqis realize that 2021 may be the most important year since the US invasion of the country in 2003, as according to government pledges, early legislative elections will be held on June 6, after the popular demonstrations that began in October 2019 led to the resignation of the government of Adel Abd. Al-Mahdi and the advent of Mustafa Al-Kazemi's government, which made elections its top priority.

Although the government is continuing to prepare for the elections;

However, many obstacles are still encountered, amid government confirmation of its conduct and expectations that it may be postponed.

Al-Azzawi believes that the new election law does not limit fraud (Al-Jazeera)

Elections or postponement?

Many expectations monitored by Al-Jazeera Net through many members of the Iraqi Parliament;

The deputy of the Iraqi Forces Alliance, Rashid Al-Azzawi, believes that everyone wants to hold the elections on time, but there are great dilemmas facing this, indicating that the new election law does not limit the fraud that occurred in the 2018 elections.

In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Azzawi confirms , Who is the Secretary General of the Iraqi Islamic Party, that the elections will be postponed until October 2021;

Because of the obstacles and ambiguities, which obstruct it in its scheduled time.

As for the government opinion, it came from the advisor to the prime minister for election affairs, Abdul-Hussein Al-Hindawi, who believes that there are no obstacles to holding it on the announced date, and that the election law has become ready and enforceable after it was published in the Official Gazette, in addition to the recent approval by Parliament of the law on financing it.

According to Al-Hindawi's interview with Al-Jazeera Net, the Electoral Commission is continuing to complete its requirements regarding logistical preparations, issuing national cards to identify the voter known as the biometric card (based on the fingerprint and fingerprint) and scheduling the rest of the procedures, revealing the increase in the number of members of the international electoral team day after day.

Going to the Kurdish bloc, the deputy of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Sherwan Al-Dubardani, reveals many obstacles that may stand in the way of holding the elections on time, especially with regard to the commission, the security situation, the repeated targeting of the US embassy in Baghdad, the logistical support convoys of the international coalition led by the United States and the assassination of activists.

My request favored postponing the elections to several months after their announced date (Al-Jazeera)

Not only that, as Al-Dubardani pointed out in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net that there is a parliamentary tendency to postpone the elections until next October in order to initiate the amendment of the dissolved provincial councils law in 2019, and thus the legislative elections and the provincial councils (local government councils) at one time to ease Economic burdens.

Based on the above, it appears that there is a parliamentary conviction that the elections will inevitably be postponed, as the Sadrist movement's "Sairoun" bloc also expresses the likelihood that the elections will be postponed until October or next December, according to MP Sabah Taloubi.

Regarding the government's insistence on holding it on time, Parliament fulfilled its obligations by enacting the new election and financing laws.

However, the current financial crisis, which has begun to worsen, may push it to be postponed from the announced date, according to what my request told Al-Jazeera Net.

Al-Tamimi said that Parliament has not yet completed the conditions for holding elections (Al-Jazeera)

What are the influencing factors?

There are many factors affecting the holding of the Iraqi elections on time, according to the legal expert Ali Al-Tamimi, who believes that the parliament did not complete the conditions for holding the elections, as the Federal Court authorized to certify the election results is still suspended.

Because of losing its legal quorum after the death of one of its members and the retirement of two others.

Consequently, parliament must legislate a new law for the Federal Court or amend its enforceable Law No. 30 of 2005, indicating that the easiest way is to amend the law in force to get out of this dilemma, according to Al-Tamimi.

He adds to Al-Jazeera Net that early elections cannot be held unless parliament dissolves itself two months before its scheduled date, according to Article 64 of the Iraqi constitution, commenting that the political blocs do not guarantee that parliament will be dissolved for fear of the unknown, and thus the Federal Court paper remains the political argument Inside Parliament to avoid reaching the stage of its dissolution.

For his part, Al-Hindawi responds to the dilemma of the Federal Court, commenting that it is not that complicated, and that the House of Representatives can solve it within a short period, especially since the remaining period for elections is relatively long, and exceeds 6 months, which is sufficient if taking into account previous electoral experiences.

Returning to Al-Azzawi, where he refers to the problem of electronic voter cards, and the Iraqis ’fear of repeating the experience of the 2018 elections, which he described as" fraudulent ", believing that unless the biometric cards are relied on, the elections will witness great fraud, especially since the commission had announced 1.5 million electronic voter cards lost.

Al-Hindawi believes that the Federal Court is not a problem, and Parliament can solve it within a short period (Iraqi Press)

What is the Iraqi position?

Iraqis are divided in their view of early elections, some of them see the necessity of holding them to consolidate some of the gains that the demonstrations of October 2019 brought, and others see them as a dust in the eyes, and that they will not differ from their predecessors.

In this regard, the activist from the protest squares in Baghdad, Hamid Majeed, says that early elections will not achieve much, and that the promises made by the Al-Kazemi government were not implemented, the protesters ’killers were not held accountable, and the state did not control or seize the fugitive weapon.

According to Majeed, who spoke to Al-Jazeera Net, all the current political blocs fear the elections and are working to postpone them, as well as that the new election law will not meet the aspirations of the Iraqis, as he put it.

On the other hand, activist Haider Hussain contradicts the first approach, indicating that the elections are an opportunity for the Iraqis to express their vision more than all the previous ones, and that the multi-district election law will determine the candidates for each district, and he does not hide in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net his desire to participate in it, saying "Even if it does not fulfill all the aspirations of the Iraqis, it will change political faces by at least 50%."

For his part, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the American Gallup Foundation, Munqith Dagher, says, "In practice, there will be no elections on time, nor in 2021 in general, and all political blocs are convinced and are working on that." ".

In his comment to Al-Jazeera Net, Dagher believes that there are objective reasons related to the logistical preparations, the Federal Court, the angry Iraqi street and the possibility of his reluctance to participate, all of which make the parties convinced of the need to postpone them.

Dagher believes that there are objective reasons why political parties are convinced of the need to postpone the elections (communication sites)

What are the limits of Iranian and American influence?

With the new US administration approaching the White House, Dagher believes that the American influence is not yet clear and unpredictable, as it depends on many factors, including the new US administration’s handling of the Iraqi file, and what might happen inside Iran.

Regarding these factors, Dagher explains that the health status of the Iranian guide, Ali Khamenei, and the possibility of his absence from the scene will affect the entire Iraqi and regional file, and therefore all possibilities are contained, alerting to the escalation of tension between Washington and Tehran following the targeting of the American embassy in Baghdad with the approaching first anniversary of the assassination of a leader Iran's Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, about a year ago.

This extrapolation contradicts political researcher, Ghanem Al-Abed, pointing out that the Iranian influence in the upcoming elections will be less severe thanks to the recent popular demonstrations, and therefore Iran will seek to preserve some of its influence without any possibility of strengthening it.

Returning to Sabah Taloubi, he asserts that foreign parties have been manipulating the country since 2003, and keeping foreign interference away from the elections and not moving figures affiliated with foreign parties will lead to more transparent elections, and otherwise Iraq will remain an arena for conflicts, as he put it.

Al-Hamdani: The coming months may be pregnant with surprises in various fields (Al-Jazeera)

What is the status of the political blocs?

The upcoming elections are the most ambiguous in the possibility of extrapolating their results, as they are contrary to all previous electoral rounds, and the new election law differs radically from its predecessor, in addition to that there is a widespread belief among the political blocs that the Iraqi public is no longer that audience, which the political blocs were running according what you want.

This proposal is confirmed by MP Sabah Taloubi, who believes that many political faces will disappear in the next parliamentary session, as well as that the new parliament will witness the replacement of 90% of its members, attributing this to the new law and its impact on the parties' areas of influence.

For his part, journalist Riyad Al-Hamdani believes that the political situation in Iraq is extremely complex, and that the country is now in hard labor, and that the coming months may be pregnant with surprises in various fields.

In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Hamdani does not exclude the emergence of large popular demonstrations similar to what happened in October 2019 with broader and comprehensive demands, referring to the current economic crisis, which has become more severe than before.

Al-Hamdani concludes that the upcoming elections, whether held on time or postponed;

However, it is characterized by the difficulty of extrapolating the status of the political blocs in it, in light of the internal and regional complications, as well as the new multi-district election law, which these blocs have not tried their influence on with.