Fears are increasing in the Iraqi street with the arrival of the first anniversary of the assassination of the commander of the Iranian Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Authority in Iraq, in an American drone near Baghdad International Airport on January 3, 2020. Among the statements I spoke about a bleak scenario, And another believes that there is no choice but to calm down. All possibilities remain open, waiting for what happens.

Al-Amerli confirmed the presence of hidden hands that want to shuffle the cards in Iraq (communication sites)

Surprise and shock

The assassination of Soleimani and the engineer represented a surprise and shock to the local and international political circles, and even to the American circles, says Assistant Professor of Political Science at Baghdad University, Dr.

Abbas Hashem Aziz.

Aziz explains to Al-Jazeera Net that the rules of confrontation between the Americans and the Iranians were open to one line, which is the political line, but their transformation into direct military action by assassinating Soleimani and Al-Muhandis means deviating from the political conflict line to the military operational one.

He warned that this carries great dangers, not only to the warring parties, but to the entire region, and may lead the region to the brink of war that cannot be confined to its borders, but may extend beyond the Gulf to the entire Middle East.

A member of the Security and Defense Committee in the Iraqi Parliament, Mahdi Taqi Al-Amerli, believes that "the assassination was a systematic and accurate American operation to hit the leaders who achieved victory over the Islamic State." The American forces are from Iraq, and we are determined to do so, "as he put it.

Al-Amerli talked about an agreement not to target any diplomatic mission, but there are hidden hands - as he described it - that want to shuffle the cards and target the government and the people in an attempt to put pressure on Iraq.

Al-Shammari believes that the killing of Soleimani and the engineer marked a major turning point in the region (Al-Jazeera)

Shocking circumstances

The statements of former Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi about entering the assassination plane, with the approval of Adel Abdul-Mahdi, were shocking, especially since the killing of Soleimani and the engineer was not a natural accident, but rather constituted a major turning point at the level of Iraq and the countries of the region, according to the head of the Iraqi Political Thinking Center, Dr.

Ihssan Al-Shammari.


Al-Shammari adds to Al-Jazeera Net that these statements come within the framework of the leaks, in an attempt to uncover the circumstances of this incident.

It seems that Al-Abadi - according to Al-Shammari - wanted to hint at the involvement of Abdul Mahdi, who was the first official in accordance with the diwani order that he issued that the aircraft movement was entrusted to him, and it is a message that Al-Abadi wanted to direct to Iran specifically, according to which its ally Abdul Mahdi was the primary cause of Soleimani's death And an internal message to the armed factions that their ally and those who supported him were directly or indirectly responsible for what happened.

In the same context, the security and strategic expert, Fadel Abu Ragheef, says that the Abdul-Mahdi government granted a general permission, not a detailed one, meaning that it gave approval for an unarmed mission, and later it became clear that it was armed, and this constitutes a violation of the international coalition at its time.

Abu Ragheef explains - during his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that there is a system called "ITO", and this system is an umbrella for the international coalition, so all types of aircraft do not fly in the skies of Iraq except with the approval of the joint operations leaders at the time and the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces.

Abu Ragheef believes that the Iraqi factions' preparations to respond are something of intimidation (Al-Jazeera)

Between escalation and de-escalation

Former Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari warned earlier of a bleak scenario on the first anniversary of the assassination of Soleimani and al-Muhandis in early 2021, and Al-Shammari believes that this scenario comes within the framework of a comprehensive response, but this was before the announcement of the results of the US elections, pointing out that the situation changed after Joe's victory. Biden.

Al-Shammari believes that Biden’s coming to the US administration greatly reduced the Iranian statements regarding the issue of the response, and if Trump continued, Iran would not have taken a decision to confront, or raise the level of escalation and take revenge, and certainly Iraq will be the arena of conflict, but the subject of the response remains postponed until the nature and positions are clarified. Biden towards the Iranian nuclear file and the sanctions, according to Al-Shammari.

Abu Ragheef points out that the factions' preparations to respond to the occasion of the anniversary of the assassination, contain some intimidation, and the response is not expected to be of a high level.

And he warned that any process that the factions undertake will be met by an American response, and this response will generate another response, and thus we will enter into a spiral of violence in which Iraq will not accept, expressing his belief that there are intra-and invisible agreements between the Iranian side and the American side, with mediators in the region, to defuse this crisis. .

Neutralizing Iraq

Al-Shammari reveals the relentless efforts made by Mustafa Al-Kazemi since he became prime minister, with the aim of neutralizing Iraq in the American-Iranian conflict, which is a very difficult task, but it is not impossible.

Al-Kazemi launched dialogues for the purpose of this neutralization, internally with the political and even military wings, according to Al-Shammari, in order to go towards calm and spare Iraq from further repercussions of the US-Iranian conflict.

It is likely that Al-Kazemi's recent visit to Tehran comes within the framework of a policy of neutralizing Iraq from any moment of friction, despite the presence of new rebel factions that are working to target the embassy and US interests, regardless of the Iranian vision pushing towards calm.

Iraq enters its new year while it is busy with its political and economic crises, and it will try to draw the features of a new phase away from external interference, and it will strive to restore the prestige of the state, according to Aziz.

Aziz expresses his hope that the upcoming early elections in June will be in accordance with a new vision that carries the aspirations of getting rid of Iraq's political and economic crises.