• Gimbe Foundation: Christmas lockout is inevitable

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    Gimbe Foundation: signs of improvement but continue with restrictions

  • Coronavirus, Gimbe Foundation: "Maintaining the penalty line to help hospitals"

  • Gimbe report: the epidemic slows down, but hospitals are under pressure

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23 December 2020 Anti-Covid restrictive measures fade in effect. The Gimbe Foundation monitoring in the week of December 16-22 detects a slight slowdown in the growth of new cases. The pressure on hospitals is reduced, but the medical area and intensive care units remain above the saturation threshold in 9 and 8 regions, respectively. There is a slight reduction in the number of deaths, which in any case nearly 4,000 in a week.



In detail, monitoring indicates a slight decrease in new cases (106,794 vs 113,182), compared to a substantial stability of the cases tested (465,534 vs 462,645) and in line with the reduction in the positive / cases tested ratio (22.9 % vs 24.5%).

Currently positive cases are reduced by 9.2% (605,955 vs 667,303) and, on the hospital front, hospitalizations with symptoms (24,948 vs 27,342) and intensive care (2,687 vs 3,003) are reduced;

deaths also decreased (3,985 vs 4,617).

In detail, compared to the previous week, the following changes were recorded: deaths: 3,985 (-13.7%);

intensive care: -316 (-10.5%);

hospitalized with symptoms: -2.394 (-8.8%);

new cases: 106,794 (-5.6%);

currently positive cases: -61,348 (-9.2%);

cases tested +2,889 (+ 0.6%);

total swabs: 28,289 (+ 2.6%).



"Braking of the contagion is less and less evident"

"This week's data - declares Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation - confirm that the slowdown of the contagion is less and less evident, as documented by the stabilization of positive / tested cases and positive / swab total, by the modest reduction in the percentage increase in total cases (57% vs 6.4%) and by the slight decrease in new weekly cases (-5.6%) ".

If the regional situations are rather heterogeneous, it is clear that in general the containment measures introduced with the Dpcm of November 3, 2020 are running out of effect.



"The percentage increase in cases - says Renata Gili, Head of Research on Health Services of the Gimbe Foundation - which last week was in decline throughout the country, this week has reversed the trend in 6 regions".

As for hospitalizations, the slow descent of the curves continues, but employment by Covid patients still exceeds the threshold of 40% in medical departments in 9 Regions and that of 30% in intensive care units in 8 Regions .

The death curve rises less steeply, but the number is still very high and is close to 4,000.



"Beyond the strengthening of the restrictive measures for the Christmas period - continues Cartabellotta - two factors will influence the evolution of the pandemic in our country in the coming months: the start of the vaccination campaign and the spread of the recently isolated Gb variant".

Considering "that the answers to these questions will not all arrive in a short time - concludes Cartabellotta - it is necessary to reassess the pandemic management plan overall, further strengthening the measures to contain the epidemic, including the tracing of positive cases to the new variant".

In fact, "the World Health Organization and the ECD recommend strengthening efforts to control and prevent the spread of the virus both with the intensification of testing & tracing and viral sequencing activities, and by continuing to raise awareness of the population. the importance of social distancing measures and the use of masks. Also because, as confirmed yesterday by the AIFA, individual vaccination will not be able to confer any '' license of freedom ''.



Analyzing the approval status of vaccines, "certain doses there are only a little more than 10 million by March 2021 and 22.8 million by June 2021: those of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, approved by the EMA on December 21, and those of Moderna which should have the green light on January 6.

AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson's vaccines are under rolling review, meaning EMA evaluates the data as it becomes available, but neither company has yet submitted the full data for conditional approval. CureVac announced on December 14 the enrollment of the first patient in the phase 3 study. Sanofi-GSK has already announced the postponement of the delivery of doses to 2022.



"Few vaccines, new pandemic plan essential"

"Given that the answers to these questions they will not all arrive quickly - concludes Cartabellotta - it is necessary to reassess the pandemic management plan overall, further strengthening the measures to contain the epidemic, including the tracing of positive cases to the new variant ".

In fact, the World Health Organization and the ECDC recommend strengthening efforts to control and prevent the spread of the virus both with the intensification of testing & tracing and viral sequencing activities, and by continuing to raise awareness of the importance of the measures. social distancing and the use of masks.

Also because, as confirmed yesterday by AIFA, individual vaccination will not be able to confer any 'license of freedom ". 


A new pandemic plan is needed for Gimbehttps: //t.co/tc5XAOXCVv

- Agi Agenzia Italia (@Aenzia_Italia) December 23, 2020