2021: a flammable France?
Emmanuel Macron during his speech on March 16, 2020. The president calls for “general mobilization” against an “invisible, elusive enemy […]” REUTERS / Eric Gaillard
Text by: Anne Soetemondt Follow
4 min
After the "yellow vests" in 2018, the demonstrations against the pension reform in 2019, the year 2020 was marked by the Covid-19 pandemic and in 2021, it is an extraordinary economic and social crisis that s 'ad.
Many politicians are warning the executive against a social explosion, which 85% of French people consider possible, according to a survey by the IFOP for La Croix.
Can we speak of a flammable France within a year and a half of the presidential election?
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In any case, several parties are campaigning on a France presented as on the verge of chaos.
At the National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen, we add to the table a security crisis and we evoke a France "
already inflamed
" when Jean-Luc Mélenchon is worried on his blog of a "
social and economic wave
".
Policies in tune with public opinion?
Well not really, it's even the opposite, according to Benjamin Morel, lecturer in public law at the University of Paris 2 Panthéon Sorbonne: “
Today, we are witnessing a form of apathy in public opinion.
Far from what is expressed in the media or on social networks, opinion surveys show on the contrary that if there is anger or concern, it is done in a rather traditional way with a request for return from the 'State and public power.
"
No company on the verge of a nervous breakdown, but a company worried about what awaits it in 2021: unemployment, decline in purchasing power ... And who could wake up.
Christian Le Bart has published
Little sociology of yellow vests
: the dispute in post-institutional mode
.
For him, the ingredients for a return to roundabouts are there: “
It is not at all impossible that other social movements which recognize themselves in
yellow vests
resume their symbolism and their costume.
The yellow vests would then become a label.
(...) This could arise everywhere in the social space, because with the crisis, there will be many weakened social groups.
"
Who could benefit politically from this social excitement?
Marine Le Pen ?
Jean-Luc Mélenchon?
Xavier Bertrand?
Yannick Jadot?
In each camp, we want to read in the period a desire for change, but for Benjamin Morel, it is still too early: “
It infuses
.
There is a real interest in public opinion, but not in traditional political struggles.
A voter who answers today that he will vote for Le Pen, Macron or Mélenchon can quickly change his mind.
The awakening of political consciousness has not been done, not yet, for the benefit or to the detriment of a political force.
"
It is true that in the polls the political balance of power has changed little or not for three years.
No winner, and yet there have been many crises.
A duo is in the lead: Emmanuel Macron with Marine Le Pen opposite.
Behind them, almost 10 points behind: Xavier Bertrand, Yannick Jadot or Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The sign that the "yellow vests", the pension reform and now the pandemic are far from having eliminated the president, according to Christian le Bart.
“
The protest against the executive is very strong.
It is true.
He has been criticized a lot for his hesitations, his flashbacks for example on the masks.
But at the same time, we know that a context of crisis can benefit the executive.
It is not at all impossible that there is a tightening effect around Emmanuel Macron.
“
With a year and a half of the presidential election
and at the dawn of an unprecedented economic and social crisis, the political game is therefore more than open.
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French politics
Emmanuel Macron
Marine Le Pen
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Yannick Jadot