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Hanover (dpa) - The fastest possible switch to electric vehicles for manufacturers and suppliers will, in the opinion of Lower Saxony's Prime Minister Stephan Weil, become a question of fate for the German auto industry by 2030.
"The pressure to convert between 60 and 65 percent of sales to electric vehicles within ten years is huge," said the SPD politician and VW supervisory board of the German press agency.
Because of the recently refined investment plans at Volkswagen, he is confident that the world's largest car company will succeed.
But it won't be easy either.
«In 2021 there will be one electric model after the next from the group.
This transformation is of course difficult for Volkswagen, but it is also a great opportunity. "
The control committee of the VW group, in which Weil sits as a representative of the second largest shareholder Lower Saxony, had approved the corresponding plans of the board in November.
Over the next five years, almost half of the total of 150 billion euros will go into new technologies such as alternative drives and networking.
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At the same time, the group is cutting jobs in traditional areas.
The overall program bears the signature of CEO Herbert Diess, who wants to convert VW even more quickly and make it more profitable.
However, there had recently been a dispute in the supervisory board about Diess' request for an early contract extension - he was unable to assert his demand.
"There has been a lot of progress at VW," said Weil.
"The e-strategy is right more than ever, especially when you take into account that the EU climate targets are being tightened again."
Whether the many small and medium-sized suppliers will manage the structural change is often still open: “My concerns do not concern the manufacturer level, but the supplier level.
A lion's share of sales and employment is based on internal combustion engines.
This phase is coming to an end, the combustion engine is on the home stretch. "
The EU wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
Because car manufacturers also have to adjust their own targets again, Volkswagen is preparing a “Strategy 2030”.
The Group's vehicles are currently responsible for around one percent of all global CO2 emissions.
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Volkswagen recently calculated that it would have to significantly increase the proportion of battery-electric vehicles sold by 2030.
According to corporate planning, around 300,000 more electric cars from the core brand could be needed annually for the home market of Europe alone - the proportion of purely electric cars is likely to grow from 35 to up to 55 percent.
Where the necessary production and battery capacities should come from is now being discussed.
"The remaining period will be shortened by the EU CO2 targets," said Weil with a view to the necessary adjustments to the auto industry.
“And if a Euro 7 emissions standard were to be introduced, the remaining time would be significantly shorter.
One can only warn against this.
Then the structural change turns into a structural break. "
The three German "car countries" Lower Saxony, Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg with the headquarters of Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler had urged the EU Commission not to decide on further tightening up too quickly.
You have to take into account the jobs and the technical feasibility.
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In the medium to long term, there is no alternative to changing course, emphasized Weil.
“That means that many suppliers have to change their business model.
A combustion engine is more labor intensive than an electric motor.
It is therefore important that we secure new added value in Germany and Lower Saxony. "
In-house battery cell production plays a central role here.
VW, for example, is building one at its Salzgitter location - for the time being, however, a large number of cells are likely to have to be purchased externally, especially from Asia.
“There are reasons why many electric vehicles currently have long delivery times,” says Weil.
"There is currently only a limited potential for battery cells."
Politicians have to steer the issue better - beyond ongoing European initiatives.
"If we want to remain the number one automotive country and fully maintain value chains, we need German battery cell production."
The high energy prices made corresponding investments less attractive.
“That's why I would like battery cell production on the coast with self-generated wind power to be exempted from grid fees,” said Weil.
"We have to use our location advantages from time to time and not always just look after the others."
Weil does not consider a binding date for a ban on the sale of combustion cars in Norway, France and other countries to be necessary in this country.
"That actually happens through political decisions on climate protection and air pollution control," he said.
"If the Euro 7 standard is to be introduced now, possibly for a short period of time, with limited benefits for the environment, but billions of dollars for industry, I think that's wrong."
This could lead to the premature end for many combustion models, “without even the slightest amount of electric cars being available by then”.
© dpa-infocom, dpa: 201221-99-768841 / 2