China News Service, Beijing, December 21st, title:

(International Year-end Feature) Rehabilitation and Recovery—The "crisis" of the world economy under the epidemic contains "opportunities"

　　China News Agency reporter Ma Jiajia

　　The new crown pneumonia epidemic has swept the world. This is called "the most serious global crisis since the Second World War" by UN Secretary-General Guterres. Its economic impact has never been seen before.

With the progress of vaccine research and development, countries have introduced fiscal, monetary and regulatory measures to "cure" the economy, and China's economy has taken the lead in stabilizing and leading to good development.

Looking forward to 2021, the global economic recovery still shows a layer of optimism.

Data map: On December 19, local time, people in the Ginza shopping area in Tokyo, Japan, experienced a mobile phone washing called "WOSH".

Suffering from a heavy hit

　　In 2020, the global economy will experience a simultaneous and profound recession.

The continuous spread of the epidemic and the increasing prevention and control measures have affected the global economy beyond the 2008 global financial crisis.

According to the October forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy will decline by 4.4% in 2020, the most serious economic recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Among them, the US economy will decline by 4.3%, the Eurozone economy will decline by 8.3%, and the Indian economy will decline by 10.3%.

At the same time, the synchronicity of the economic recession has also led to a sharp decline in international trade and investment. The World Trade Organization predicts that global trade in goods will shrink by 9.2% this year.

　　In addition, the economic recession triggered by the epidemic has also led to a surge in poverty and low-income populations in many countries.

In June this year, the World Bank predicted that 70 million to 100 million people in the world would return to poverty due to the epidemic. A recent study by Oxford University indicated that the epidemic would cause 500 million people worldwide to return to below the poverty line. It will set back the pace of global poverty reduction by ten years.

The Ligatan Institute, an independent British think tank, pointed out that due to the impact of the new crown pandemic on employment, wages and profits, the country’s poor population has increased by nearly 700,000 this year to 15.2 million.

According to a study recently released by the University of Chicago and the University of Notre Dame, since June, due to the increase in new crown cases and the decrease in federal government funding, the national poverty rate has risen from 9.3% in June to 11.7% in November, which is nearly 800. Millions of Americans fall into poverty.

Data map: On December 18, local time, in Arlington, Virginia, USA, customers dine in an outdoor plastic house provided by the restaurant. This plastic house was named "Space Bubble House" to prevent the spread of the new crown virus .

The road to impact lasting recovery is obstructed and long

　　The development of the new crown vaccine has brought dawn to the control of the epidemic.

Many research institutions stated that the world economy is expected to enter repaired growth in 2021 and gradually make up for the losses caused by the epidemic.

According to the latest forecast of the IMF, the world is expected to usher in a low-base recession recovery in 2021, and the economic growth rate will rebound to 5.2%.

However, it is worth noting that the expected economic growth rate of 5.2% in 2020 is only less than 0.6% compared to the actual growth in 2019.

There are still many challenges to achieve a sustainable recovery in the global economy.

　　On the one hand, it is difficult for the pressure to rebound from the epidemic to be eliminated in the short term.

In the past few months, as countries gradually eased blockade measures, the global economy rebounded to a certain extent in the short term, but then experienced a difficult "climbing" process.

Globally, the epidemic is still raging. In particular, the number of new cases in major economies such as the United States, Brazil, and India remains high. The epidemic in Europe has rebounded sharply since the fall and winter, and the economic restart is facing major challenges.

In addition, the effectiveness and popularity of vaccines have added uncertainties to the economic recovery.

　　On the other hand, the negative impact of the epidemic on the global economy will continue in 2021. The impact of the epidemic on economic activities is serious, which limits the degree of recovery of economic activities in the short term.

It is worth noting that there is a need for structural adjustment in some economies, and this is a long-standing problem before the outbreak.

For these economies, while preventing and controlling the epidemic and stabilizing the economy, they must also seek to eradicate structural "sick diseases".

　　The British "Financial Times" reported that for 2021 global economic expectations, the consensus of Wall Street analysts in the United States is that even if the economy rebounds in 2021, employment and inflation in most parts of the world will still be under pressure.

All of these indicate that the future global economic recovery will be long and difficult.

Data map: On December 10, local time, due to the epidemic, one of the most popular ski resorts in France, Val DIsere, was temporarily closed.

Image source: Sipaphoto copyright works please do not reprint

Overcoming the difficulties and changing circumstances, there are "opportunities" in the "crisis"

　　In the context of the global economic recession, the optimistic expectations of China's economic growth have been widely recognized by all walks of life around the world.

The latest IMF forecast that China will be the only country in the world's major economies that will maintain positive growth this year.

According to the latest Global Economic Outlook report released in December by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the global economy is expected to grow by 4.2% in 2021, and China will contribute more than one-third of global economic growth.

The World Bank also pointed out in its latest research report that China will maintain faster growth in 2021, adding new momentum to the recovery of the world economy.

　　Faced with a global economic recession, no country can survive alone.

In the face of common challenges, China took the lead in containing the epidemic, restarting its economy against headwinds, and “turning positive” in the first three quarters of economic growth, which played a positive role in promoting the recovery of the world economy.

　　"We must make good use of the new business models and models spawned by the epidemic", "Restore the global industrial chain and the safe and smooth operation of the supply chain" "I hope everyone will be an explorer of innovative growth"... Chinese President Xi Jinping took "active response" to "turn crises into opportunities" "The dialectical thinking puts forward a Chinese plan to promote the recovery of the world economy.

　　China cannot develop without the world, and the prosperity of the world also needs China.

China's proposition of mutual benefit and win-win has released a strong signal for China to promote the construction of an open world economy. China's opening-up is based on its own development to bring benefits to the global economic governance system and the world economy.

The Chinese economy is showing its strong resilience and vitality as China's role in promoting global recovery, adding bright colors to the recession of the world economy.

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