A Russian military presence in Syria is essential.
This was stated by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic Faisal Mikdad.
The Foreign Minister of the SAR noted that Russia and Syria have achieved common victories in the fight against terrorism.
However, this does not mean that it is over, as the United States continues to encourage the activity of terrorist organizations in order to justify its military presence in the country, Mikdad said.
"The fight against terrorism continues in various ways and means," Mikdad said in an interview with RIA Novosti.
Speaking about the military presence of Russia in Syria, the minister stressed that it is not just useful, but "necessary."
The threat of destabilization
A similar point of view was previously expressed by the President of the SAR Bashar al-Assad.
Answering the question in October whether the war in Syria is over, Assad noted that terrorists still occupy some parts of the country.
“And I think that their leaders intend to make it (the war. -
RT
) continue for a long time.
This is what we think, ”added the Syrian leader.
At the same time, the hotbed of international terrorism in Syria has been virtually eliminated.
This was announced in November by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting with his Syrian counterpart in a conference format.
Putin noted the effective work being carried out with the participation of Iran and Turkey in the Astana format.
“Through joint efforts we have managed to achieve a lot.
The hotbed of international terrorism in Syria has been virtually eliminated, ”the head of state added.
A Su-34 bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces during air strikes against IS targets in Syria
RIA News
© Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
According to the expert of the Russian Council on International Affairs Grigory Lukyanov, Russian military participation is connected, first of all, with the fight against IS * and international terrorism.
According to Lukyanov, difficulties remain even in the territory that has returned to the control of the Syrian government.
“There are a lot of disagreements both with those groups that entered into dialogue with Damascus and with the Kurds, who demand autonomy.
And this does not suit the SAR authorities, who believe that the resources located on the Kurdish lands belong to the entire Syrian people.
In addition, some of the territories are not controlled by the central government, but are ruled by groups.
The situation can be destabilized, ”the expert added.
A similar point of view is shared by Alexander Krylov, a leading researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at MGIMO.
“The international terrorist organization has been suppressed, but the conflict in Syria has not yet ended.
The country is highly fragmented, there is an armed opposition of various kinds, ”the expert noted in a commentary on RT.
One of the points on the map of Syria, where a tense situation persists, remains the province of Idlib.
In early November, Rear Admiral Alexander Grinkevich, deputy head of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of Warring Parties in Syria, told the media that militants associated with the Jebhat al-Nusra ** group had increased their shelling from the Idlib de-escalation zone.
Faisal Mikdad
RIA News
© Press Service of the Russian Foreign Ministry
The situation remains difficult in the northeast of the SAR, where US-controlled areas are located.
In May 2020, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova reported that the situation in northeastern Syria was deteriorating.
IS militants have stepped up attacks amid the coronavirus pandemic, while the United States does not care about the region's civilian population, Zakharova explained.
As Alexander Krylov noted, now there are many terrorist organizations associated with other countries in Syria.
“For example, in the Aleppo and Idlib regions, the Tahrir al-Sham grouping (the same as Jabhat al-Nusra -
RT
)
operates
, it even included the remnants of IS.
This group advocates the creation of a caliphate only on the territory of Syria.
Now the terrorists are not conducting an active offensive, but the group can seriously destabilize the country, ”the expert noted.
Syrian foothold
Let us recall that the civil conflict of 2011 brought Syria to the current situation.
Against the background of the "Arab Spring", which engulfed almost the entire region, protests began in the SAR.
The peaceful confrontation quickly escalated into armed clashes.
The opposition formed into armed units, the largest of which was the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
In addition, amid the military chaos in the country, many radical groups have emerged.
The most notable of these was Jabhat al-Nusra - at first it was associated with al-Qaeda ***.
By 2014, an even more formidable and dangerous force was entrenched in the Syrian military arena - the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), the group eventually shortened its name to the Islamic State.
Like Jabhat al-Nusra, ISIS was also initially associated with al-Qaeda.
Members of the ISIS organization banned in the Russian Federation
AFP
© AHRAR AL-SHAM
In 2014, ISIS launched an active offensive in Iraq and Syria, terrorists captured the large Iraqi city of Mosul and part of the Syrian territories.
According to experts, by the end of 2015, ISIS controlled about 40% of Iraq and a significant part of the SAR.
The terrorists professed the ideology of maximum intolerance - takfirism, and brutally killed not only Christians, but also Shiite Muslims in the occupied territories.
In August 2014, the United States, at the head of the anti-terrorist coalition, launched a military operation against ISIS.
At the same time, Washington, unlike Moscow, did not receive the consent of the republic's official authorities for a military presence in the country.
The situation in Syria worsened; in September 2015, official Damascus turned to Moscow for help.
The operation started on September 30th.
Aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces began to deliver pinpoint strikes against IS targets in Syria.
The base of the Russian aviation group was the Khmeimim airfield in the Latakia province.
A group of the Russian Navy participated in the operation from the sea.
In October, the missile ships Dagestan, Grad Sviyazhsk, Veliky Ustyug and Uglich struck cruise missiles at enemy targets from the Mediterranean Sea.
According to experts, Russia's participation in the fight against terrorists made it possible to turn the tide.
In 2017, almost the entire territory of the SAR was liberated from the militants, with the exception of four enclaves.
The largest of these was the province of Idlib, bordering Turkey.
In the same year, Russia, Iran and Turkey established a format for negotiations on the situation in Syria, the capital of Kazakhstan, Astana (now Nur-Sultan -
RT
),
became the place of regular meetings of the parties
.
Representatives of a number of Syrian armed organizations took part in the negotiations.
Already in January 2017, it was possible to agree on the creation of a tripartite mechanism that would allow monitoring the observance of the ceasefire regime in the SAR.
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Subsequently, within the framework of the Astana format, a memorandum was signed on the creation of de-escalation zones in Syria under the control of the armistice guarantors - Russia, Iran and Turkey.
In 2018, Moscow and Ankara agreed to create a demilitarized zone in the largest of them, Idlib.
Despite this, the situation in the province has not stabilized.
At the end of 2019, a new exacerbation began in Idlib.
In response to the actions of the militants, the Syrian army launched an offensive.
This provoked a protest from Turkey, but in March 2020 the conflict was settled and the parties agreed to a ceasefire.
Deterrent factor
According to experts, the Russian military presence in Syria is quite large.
The Syrian leadership sees many regional threats to national security.
Therefore, cooperation with Russia in the military, political and economic spheres is considered strategically important for the SAR.
“The Russian military presence and bases are viewed by Damascus as not a temporary phenomenon.
The agreement on the status of the Russian bases implies the presence of the Russian military in the country for 49 years, with the possibility of prolongation.
The Syrian authorities directly link the future of their country and the survival of the state with Russia, ”said Grigory Lukyanov.
Syrian civil war
Reuters
© Ahmed Jadallah
According to the expert, it is really early to talk about the curtailment of the Russian presence in Syria, since today a difficult situation remains in the country.
“It has stabilized, now there are no serious shocks.
However, a peaceful life has not yet been established.
The American sanctions, which hinder the reconstruction of the country, have become a serious factor.
Plus, this is hampered by the global recession, ”the expert noted.
In the context of economic problems, the political recovery of the country, which continues to balance on the brink of a new crisis, is also hampered.
The military presence of Russia is a deterrent to destructive tendencies, experts say.
“There are two Russian military bases in Syria.
This is quite enough to contain the situation, "explained Alexander Krylov.
According to the expert, the condition for reducing the Russian contingent in Syria could be political consolidation and complete normalization of the situation in the country.
For this to happen, all political forces in the SAR must take part in a complex constitutional process.
but not
* "Islamic State" (IS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.
** “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (“Jabhat Fath al-Sham”, “Front al-Nusra”, “Jabhat al-Nusra”) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated December 29, 2014.
*** "Al-Qaeda" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated 02.14.2003.