Xinhua News Agency, Cairo, December 19
(International Watch) The establishment of a coalition government: how far is Yemen from ending the civil war
Xinhua News Agency reporter Wang Shang
Yemeni President Hadi signed a presidential decree on the 18th announcing the formation of a coalition government with the Southern Transitional Council.
The two sides agreed to place their respective combat forces under the unified command of the Ministry of National Defense of the coalition government.
So far, most areas in southern Yemen have achieved nominal unity after more than three years.
Analysts believe that the formation of the coalition government is the result of a game of external forces, reflecting the further consolidation of Saudi Arabia's dominance in southern Yemen. However, it remains to be seen whether the new government can completely end the civil war and change Yemen's current state of north-south separatism.
Twists and turns
According to the presidential decree signed by Hadi, the coalition government consists of 24 ministers, and the current prime minister of Yemen, Muin Abdul-Malik Said, will serve as the prime minister of the coalition government.
Five officials from the Southern Transitional Council will serve in the coalition government.
Separation forces have existed in southern Yemen for a long time, and the establishment of the coalition government can be described as twists and turns.
In 2014, the Houthi armed forces occupied the northern provinces and captured the capital Sana’a. The Hadi government was forced to move to the southern port city of Aden, but many southern factions were dissatisfied with the central government who had been in exile.
In 2017, Hadi ousted Zubedi, the governor of Aden Province; Zubedi, with the support of the United Arab Emirates, united with the southern tribes and some military and political leaders to form the Southern Transitional Committee to seek independence in the southern region.
The Southern Transitional Council army also occupied Aden for a time in August 2019.
In November 2019, under the mediation of Saudi Arabia, the Hadi government and the Southern Transitional Council signed a power distribution agreement in Riyadh and agreed to form a coalition government.
However, the agreement has not been implemented, and there have been bloodshed conflicts between the two sides.
In April this year, the Southern Transitional Council announced the implementation of autonomy in the southern provinces, which caused strong dissatisfaction with the Hadi government and the multinational coalition led by Saudi Arabia.
In July, the Hadi government and the Southern Transitional Council accepted the new mechanism proposed by Saudi Arabia aimed at accelerating the implementation of the Riyadh agreement, including the maintenance of the ceasefire and the abandonment of autonomy by the Southern Transitional Council, but there have been sporadic conflicts between the armed forces of the two sides.
On December 10, under the mediation of the multinational coalition forces led by Saudi Arabia, the Yemeni government reached an agreement with the Southern Transitional Council to agree to implement the military and security provisions of the Riyadh agreement, clearing the way for the establishment of a Yemeni coalition government.
Saudi Domination
Yemeni political analysts believe that the easing of the conflict between the Southern Transitional Council and the Hadi government is the result of the UAE's gradual withdrawal from Yemen. The formation of the coalition government mainly reflects the will of Saudi Arabia.
The chairman of the Arab Research and Development Forum in Aden, Nabil Bukiri, said that the UAE had previously hoped to ensure the safety of its coastal trade routes and routes in Yemen through the Southern Transitional Council. However, as the war in Yemen fell into a stalemate, the UAE began to seek to get rid of the war quagmire as soon as possible. .
After losing the "backer" of the UAE, the Southern Transitional Council can only choose to cooperate with Saudi Arabia.
The Riyadh agreement originally provided for the two parties to equally distribute the positions of ministers in the coalition government, but only five of the cabinet names announced this time are from the Southern Transitional Council, which shows that it has made concessions in the latest negotiations.
In addition, the Gulf severance crisis that began in 2017 is also considered to be closely related to the situation in Yemen.
Aden’s political analyst Yasser Yafi said that the various factions in Yemen were already competing to seek support from outside forces. The severance of diplomatic relations led to the division of the Gulf Arab countries, which gave the various factions in Yemen space to unite.
The current situation in the Gulf has eased, further consolidating Saudi Arabia’s dominant position in southern Yemen, thereby prompting the Hadi government and the Southern Transitional Council to achieve reconciliation.
Bukiri also stated that the easing of the Gulf situation has a positive impact on the stability of southern Yemen. If the Gulf countries can reach a consensus on the Yemen issue, the newly formed Yemen coalition government will also be more stable.
The outlook is unknown
Yemeni officials previously stated in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that the military actions after the establishment of the coalition government "will all target the Houthi armed forces."
But analysts believe that this does not mean that the coalition government will soon defeat the Houthis to end the civil war, and the future situation in Yemen is still uncertain.
Yafi pointed out that it takes time to observe whether the reunification of southern Yemen can be realized.
Previously, the Hadi government and the Southern Transitional Council had reconciled many times, but conflicts broke out again.
Although the two sides have formed a coalition government this time, whether the coalition government can run smoothly, how to distribute economic benefits, and how the military should be consolidated and integrated will test the sincerity of both sides.
In addition, Yafei also believes that even if the forces of the Hadi government and the Southern Transitional Committee are reorganized, their combat capabilities are still relatively limited, and it is difficult to form a greater advantage over the Houthi forces.
Burkiri believes that the final trend of Yemen's civil war will depend on the outcome of the game between Saudi Arabia and other countries and Iran, which is considered to support the Houthis.
For Yemeni people, although the unification of the south is good news, analysts pointed out that in addition to wars, Yemen has also experienced multiple blows such as floods, famines, locust plagues, and the new crown epidemic this year. In particular, the country's ability to respond to the epidemic is extremely lacking. , The epidemic situation is severe, and the difficulties of the Yemeni people will continue in the foreseeable future.