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Mainz (dpa / lrs) - Rising birth rates and immigration in recent years will make it necessary to hire more teachers than previously expected by the end of the decade.
The model calculations recently presented by the Standing Conference of the Ministers of Education and Cultural Affairs (KMK) show a higher number of schoolchildren and a higher need for teachers than had previously been forecast.
"All states, including Rhineland-Palatinate, must therefore devote themselves more to the next generation of teachers and train more teachers," said a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Education.
In Rhineland-Palatinate, however, the situation is less tense than in other countries.
According to the calculations, the number of schoolchildren in Rhineland-Palatinate will increase by 5.4 percent to 554,270 between 2018 and 2030.
Last year's forecast had expected 541 170 young people in general and vocational schools.
At the primary schools alone, an increase of 9.5 percent is now expected for Rhineland-Palatinate - from 139 504 in 2018 to 152 730 by 2030. The previous forecast was for 146 900 primary school children for 2030.
According to the model calculation, the demand for new primary school teachers in Rhineland-Palatinate will peak in 2022 and will decline significantly from 2024.
According to this, the annual need for the recruitment of primary school teachers will increase from 460 this year and next to 480 in 2022.
In 2024 it should be 380 and then 110 in 2026.
After that, based on demographic calculations, an increase to 180 is expected by 2030.
The expected supply of newly trained primary school teachers will increase from 362 to 439 in the coming year. To cover the demand, the primary school teaching course at Trier University will begin in the winter semester of 2020/21 with around 120 places.
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Less strong fluctuations are expected in lower secondary level - i.e. from the 5th grade onwards.
A recruitment requirement of between 280 this year and 400 in 2028 is expected in all school types.
The need fluctuates somewhat more in the upper secondary level, which begins with the 10th or 11th grade.
From 230 teachers this year, an increasing demand is expected to 490 teachers in 2030, before the numbers then decline again.
There are already high numbers of students for teaching at high schools, said the Ministry of Education.
The need for special educators is currently very high - with 210 this year.
A decrease to 110 is expected by 2030.
An additional study seminar was opened in Wallertheim (Alzey-Worms district) last year for teaching at special schools.
At the vocational schools, the Ministry of Education wants to increasingly offer lateral and side entry options.
The University and University of Koblenz work together with the Philosophical-Theological University of Vallendar to train teachers for metal technology, electrical engineering, construction and wood technology as well as for care.
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The teaching profession is very challenging, but also very fulfilling and of inestimable value for society, said Education Minister Stefanie Hubig (SPD).
"In Rhineland-Palatinate, teachers have good general conditions and they are usually civil servants."
Model calculation of teacher recruitment needs
Forecast student numbers until 2030