"Geographical fatalism": why Poland announced Moscow's desire to include Warsaw "in its sphere of influence"

From a geopolitical point of view, Poland may fall under the influence of Russia.

This was stated by Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Labor and Development of Poland Yaroslav Govin.

In an interview with the Polish portal Gazeta, he noted that this conclusion can be reached by assessing the geographical position of these two states.

“Here I am looking at the map of Eurasia: a small promontory over which a huge bear hangs - Russia,” Govin said.

According to him, the competition between Warsaw and Moscow is predetermined by "geographical fatalism."

The politician stressed that Russia cannot be attacked either from the south - there is the Caucasus, nor from the east - there is Siberia, nor from the north - there is an ocean.

“This can be done only from the western direction - through the plains of Poland and Ukraine.

Any Russian tsar, general secretary or president will strive to include these two countries in his sphere of influence, ”the Polish official said.

Therefore, Poland's main state interest lies in EU membership, Yaroslav Govin is sure.

“The alternative is simple: if someone sees the future of Poland outside the EU, whether he wants it or not, he projects the transfer of Poland under the influence of the Kremlin,” the minister said.

Military preparations

This is not the first time that Polish politicians have declared about the "threat" allegedly emanating from Russia.

Moreover, it is under this pretext that Warsaw is actively building up the US military presence on its territory, and also purchases weapons from Washington.

In 2018, the European state entered into a deal with an overseas partner for the supply of Patriot air defense systems for $ 4.75 billion.Then, in January 2020, Warsaw signed a contract for the purchase of 32 F-35 fighters from the American side with a total value of $ 4.6 billion.

• NATO exercise in Poland Tumak 20

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In addition to purchasing American weapons, Poland constantly demonstrates to the United States its interest in expanding the American military contingent stationed on its territory.

Polish politicians even expressed their readiness to allocate $ 2 billion from the country's budget for the construction of a permanent American base, but this plan has not yet been implemented.

In addition, at the end of September 2019, US President Donald Trump and his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda, during a meeting on the sidelines of the 4th session of the UN General Assembly in New York, signed a declaration providing for an increase in the US troop contingent in Poland.

According to the document, another 1,000 soldiers will join the 4,500 American servicemen already deployed in Poland on a rotational basis.

After meeting with Trump and signing the declaration, Duda said such actions were an "adequate response" to Russian politics.

Against the background of such an increase in military cooperation, the United States views Poland as one of the main conductors of its interests in Europe.

In May this year, amid debates in Germany over the presence of American nuclear weapons in the country, the American ambassador to Poland, Georgette Mosbacher, announced that Warsaw would host it if necessary.

In addition, military maneuvers with the participation of the US and NATO armed forces are regularly held on the territory of the republic.

So, at the end of November, the Tumak 20 exercise was held in the country, in which more than 1.2 thousand military personnel from the United States, Great Britain, Romania, Poland and Croatia were involved.

The press service of the NATO Reinforced Forward Presence combat group in Poland said the exercise was intended to demonstrate that the group "is capable of giving a deadly rebuff to any potential aggressor in the region."

Political claims

In addition to active militarization with the participation of the United States and NATO, Poland has consistently come out with political demarches against Russia.

So, in mid-November, the press secretary of the Minister-Coordinator of the Polish special services Stanislav Zharin said that Moscow was allegedly making attempts to spoil Warsaw's reputation in the world.

“One of the tendencies that we constantly observe is an attempt to tarnish, spoil and damage the image of Poland in the international arena, especially within the EU and NATO.

Russia is constantly trying to present Poland as a problem country, which the allies should be treated with a certain degree of mistrust, ”Zharin said.

• Warsaw Poland

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The functionary stressed that it is Russia that poses the greatest threat to Poland.

“Russia conducts actions based on lies, manipulates the image of Poland, NATO, the West, deliberately and cynically lies in order to achieve its goals and, if necessary, harm us.

Russia has begun to use lies as a way by which it influences other countries today, ”he said.

In addition, according to Stanislav Zharin, the Russian side allegedly organizes military provocations against Poland, conducts aggressive diplomatic and intelligence activities, uses financial and energy levers, and carries out hacker attacks.

The Polish leadership has been exploiting the topic of a possible Russian expansion to the West for a long time, referring to the Baltic region, Dmitry Danilov, a professor at MGIMO, head of the European security department at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, recalled in a conversation with RT.

“One should not look for rational arguments behind such ideological, Russophobic statements, since they are irrational from the point of view of assessing Russian intentions,“ threats ”.

Today, the state policy of Poland is aimed at strengthening its position in the program of "containment" of Russia, increasing its rating, and its importance in American politics.

If Polish politicians do not support the flame of Russian "aggression" with all their might, then they will lose in all respects, "Danilov explained.

He believes that in the near future Poland will remain in the forefront of those who are interested in continuing the policy of strengthening the "containment" of Russia.

As political analyst Alexander Asafov noted in an interview with RT, the Polish leadership is actively promoting the so-called Jagiellonian idea - an alternative pseudo-historical project, according to which the most significant center of Slavic peoples over the past ten centuries is not Moscow, but the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.

“This absurd logic is dominated by the following thesis: Russia is in a more favorable geographical position due to allegedly unfair circumstances.

In addition, in this way the Polish leadership, which is now developing rather cool relations with the EU on a number of issues, is trying to prove to Brussels that it will not be able to resist Moscow without Warsaw and Kiev, to repel the “threat” emanating from it, the political scientist explained.

According to him, the position of the Polish ruling party, as well as the president of the republic, is completely subordinate to the US policy, which needs strong Russophobic sentiments near the borders of the Russian Federation from Poland, the Baltic countries, and Ukraine.

“All this has already become an element of domestic policy.

But such a position is ineffective, since Polish citizens, for the most part, have no complaints against Russia.

I admit that constructive relations are possible between the Russian Federation and Poland, but only after the government changes in the republic, the Law and Justice Party will lose the levers of government.

After all, Moscow and Warsaw are neighbors, they have a lot in common.

Of course, there are difficult moments in the history of interaction between the two countries, but one way or another disagreements on this issue can be overcome, ”Asafov said.