Despite the recent high level of tension in the relationship between the two countries, the Somali government's decision to cut diplomatic relations with its Kenyan neighbor surprised observers and observers of political affairs in the Horn of Africa.

Prior to announcing the severance of relations, the Somali government had taken a series of escalating steps against Kenya, such as banning the import of khat from it, and imposing a visa from the Somali embassy and consulates in Kenya for holders of a Kenyan passport, while this was done in the past upon their arrival. To Somalia airports.

It also summoned its ambassador from Kenya and demanded his Kenyan counterpart to leave Somalia last month, all of which were measures aimed at pressuring Kenya to change its approach and stop what the Somali government describes as its anti-Somali practices.

Motives and justifications

Justifying the severing of relations with Kenya, Somali Deputy Prime Minister Mahdi Guled said that his country's government has exhausted all possible means to put an end to the discord and tension with its African neighbor.

He added that Somali President Muhammad Abdullah Farmajo discussed earlier with his Kenyan counterpart the dispute between the two countries and reached understandings that put an end to tension and return the water to its course, but the Kenyan government did not abide by these understandings and struck a wall with them, and even stepped up what he described as its fierce attack in order to destabilize The security and stability of the country, the harassment of Somali officials at its airports and the obstruction of the extraction of oil wealth in Somalia, in addition to its repeated requests to postpone the lawsuit related to the maritime dispute between the two countries before the International Court without a clear justification.

In an interview yesterday, Guled confirmed that the Somali government has filed a complaint with the "IGAD" organization, and that Somali President Farmajo will travel to Djibouti in the coming days regarding this matter.

For his part, Somali Minister of Information, Osman Dubi, said in a televised speech that the decision to cut ties came after what he called the blatant interference of the Kenyan government in the internal affairs of Somalia, and its recent breach of its sovereignty.

Three factors

The general editor of the "Mogadishu Press" news website, Abdul Qadir Osman "Program", believes that the current tension in the relationship between the two countries is due to 3 main factors: Kenya's control of the state of Jubaland, politically and in terms of security, even if the security aspect comes within a "legal" framework because its forces operate within African peacekeepers, and their embrace and support, state president Ahmed Madoubi, comes as a political card to implement its agenda according to "program".

General Editor of Mogadishu Press News website Abdelkader Othman "Program" (Al-Jazeera)

Program cited the recent visit of Madoubi to Kenya and how he changed his stance towards the elections scheduled to take place soon in Somalia, after his return from Kenya, and his disavowal of the agreement reached by the Somali government and state leaders at the behest of the Kenyan government.

A program indicates that the second reason - in his belief - for the tension in relations between the two countries, is what he described as "open" Kenyan interference in the electoral process in Somalia, and the provision of a platform in its land that brings together Somali personalities and countries unwilling to develop in Somalia at the political level, in which they are woven He describes it as plots against Somalia and against its government and its leaders, while seeking to undermine the political and security stability of the country, and thwart efforts to organize elections.

As for the third factor in his view, it is the official invitation sent by the Kenyan government to the president of Somaliland, who declared his secession from Somalia unilaterally in 1991, Musa Bihi Abdi, and his official reception by the Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, and the conclusion of agreements between the two parties, including the opening of an affiliated consulate. To Somaliland in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, without the consent of the Somali government.

He points out that the Somali government sees these steps as a dangerous escalation that affects the unity of Somalia and strengthens separatism, which is why it took the initiative to sever relations with Kenya.

Regardless of the emerging causes in the conflict between the two countries, it is important to recall the existence of a maritime dispute between them whose file is still open before the International Court to decide on it, and that this dispute also includes a wide area on the land border between the two countries, which extends over a length of 800 km, where it does not recognize Somalia, with parts of it subordinate to Kenya, specifically the Somali region in northeastern Kenya.

Hasty steps

But according to Farhan Ishaq Youssef, a researcher at the Public Agenda Center for Studies, the decision was hasty and ill-considered, and other alternatives were available to the Somali government before taking this step, including holding a meeting at the ministerial or presidential level to ease the tension and address controversial issues, even if These diplomatic steps did not succeed, so a complaint was supposed to be filed with the "IGAD" organization or the African Union.

Researcher from the Public Agenda Center for Studies, Farhan Ishaq Youssef (Al-Jazeera)

He believes that if all these efforts fail, then it is assumed that less severe steps will be taken, such as reducing diplomatic representation, and after exhausting all alternatives, the option of severing relations remains the most appropriate.

Regarding the expected response from Kenya, Yusuf believes that it may take at least two steps, namely strengthening its moral and political support for the state of Jubaland and its president, Ahmed Madoubi, whose relationship with the federal government has been in tension for more than two years, and throwing its political weight behind the opposition candidate to overthrow the Somali President Muhammad Abdullah Farmajo in The next election.

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Youssef expects that mutual escalation will be the master of the situation in the coming days, unless the neighboring countries or the IGAD organization take an initiative to mediate between the two sides and limit differences between them.

Kenya: We keep calm

However, the Kenyan government spokesman, Cyrus Oguna, confirmed that the government of his country is maintaining its calm and not carrying out revenge measures.

Oguna told reporters yesterday that they had formed a committee tasked with looking into matters that marred relations between the two countries, and that "there are efforts underway to restore relations between the two countries to normal."

He stressed that his country is not ready to take steps similar to those taken by the Somali government.

It is noteworthy that Kenya is hosting about 250 thousand Somali refugees who fled the war and the ongoing violence in Somalia since 1991, and in late 2011 Kenyan forces entered Somali territory under the pretext of preventing the operations and attacks carried out by Al-Shabaab inside its territory, but these forces were later integrated into a mission African peacekeepers were formally held in February 2012 by a decision of the UN Security Council.