The automobile industry suddenly lacks "core"

New cars are out of stock and price increases next year?

China Automobile Association: Don't panic

  Today the automotive industry has encountered a storm of lack of "core".

In early December, the news that Volkswagen’s two joint ventures in China, FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen, were forced to suspend production due to chip shortages broke out, instantly exposing the chip supply dilemma of the automotive industry to the forefront.

A recent investigation by reporters from all media found that due to the impact of the global epidemic and the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry, the global shortage of semiconductor chips has caused a certain price increase of automotive chips, which may affect some domestic intelligent new cars in the first half of next year. Market supply.

At the moment, market worries and thoughts spread, and many consumers are worried: Will the shortage of parts and the price increase chain affect the price of new cars next year?

Undoubtedly, China's automobile manufacturing industry, which relies heavily on imported "chips," this time has also sounded the alarm.

  Text/Picture Deng Li, All Media Reporter, Guangzhou Daily

OEM survey

"Enough stock of chips during the year" next year "no more news"

  Xiao Guo is a marketing public relations officer for a large domestic car company. In the past half month, he has received dozens of media inquiries about "chip impact". He replied in accordance with the company's unified instructions: "Currently production is business as usual. , There is no more information to share." But he told reporters privately that because the chip supply situation is not clear, the company is also waiting and watching, so it is impossible to make accurate predictions.

The reporter recently interviewed domestic mainstream automakers and found that local automakers responded basically uniformly: chip shortages did not affect production.

A person from Geely Automobile said: "Compared with high-end brands such as BBA (BMW Audi) and Volkswagen brands, our models still use relatively little chips."

  What about joint ventures or imported brand car companies?

Regarding the Volkswagen brand that was exposed and stopped production, Xu Ying, the relevant person in charge of the public relations department of Volkswagen China, responded that the chip supply was indeed partially affected, but it was not as serious as the rumors. At present, coordination work has been carried out with suppliers related to the German headquarters. Seeking a solution, and denied the news that the two joint venture factories have completely stopped production.

"There are not many models affected by the chip shortage, and the current impact on the whole is very small." A source in the procurement department of FAW-Volkswagen told reporters that only some high-end models will be involved, but the situation is not serious.

In addition, joint venture car companies such as Dongfeng Honda and Guangqi Honda have also confirmed that there is a shortage of chips, but it is said that only about 10% to 15% of the model production is affected.

  As for Beijing Benz, BMW Brilliance, SAIC GM, FAW Toyota and other new car manufacturers, as well as new car manufacturers such as Xiaopeng, Weilai, and Ideal that produce “smart new energy vehicles”, they all claim that their own enterprises are in normal production and operation, and related vehicles Customer deliveries were not affected.

  However, when asked "how to predict the situation next year", most of the car companies, including the BBA, were very secretive and concluded with "no more information".

The reporter noticed that behind the fairly "unified" answers of most manufacturers, a phenomenon was concentratedly reflected: chip inventory can guarantee the needs of the year, but there are many uncertainties in the new year that is about to start.

Geely said frankly: "The news currently heard is that this problem will be alleviated in the first quarter of next year, but we do not confirm it either."

  The reporter's survey found that in recent years, the domestic automobile manufacturing industry's "dependence" on chips, especially imported chips (pre-installation market accounts for nearly 90%) has increased.

With the increase in the electrification and intelligence of automobiles, the importance of semiconductor chips in the automobile manufacturing industry has been highlighted, and they have been widely used in all parts of automobiles.

An industry insider who has been engaged in auto parts manufacturing for many years told reporters: The current shortage of automotive chips mainly involves two types, which are used in ESP (Electronic Stability Program System) MCU (Micro Control Unit) and ECU (Electronic Control Unit) that affects on-board computers. MCU directly affects vehicle manufacturing.

Upstream and downstream investigation

The stocking cycle is long, and the supply of automotive chips appears to be contradictory

  At present, the purchasing departments of many auto companies have already encountered "barriers" in their chip purchasing plans for next year.

"The shortage of semiconductor components has caused a bottleneck in the entire supply chain of parts and components." The relevant person in charge of Bosch China told reporters.

The two German companies, Bosch and Continental, are currently major automotive electronics component suppliers for domestic automakers.

In the chip field, Bosch and Continental only purchase chips and then assemble them into related modules to supply automakers. The "upstream" chip manufacturers such as NXP and Infineon have insufficient supply, which has led to the fact that mainland and Bosch are caught in the middle. "It's hard to cook without rice."

  According to Tianyan, several traditional automotive chip manufacturers, including NXP, Renesas Electronics, Infineon, STMicroelectronics, and Texas Instruments, account for about 50% of the global automotive chip market.

Nowadays, large manufacturers such as Texas Instruments and Renesas Electronics, which can take priority from the "upstream", have also issued notices of insufficient chip production capacity and price increases. As for more small and medium-sized manufacturers, they are also lining up to upstream foundries. "Wait for the chip.

Continental said that although chip manufacturers are striving to expand production capacity to cope with the current surge in demand, the additional supply required by the market will take 6 to 9 months to achieve, so the potential supply bottleneck may continue until 2021.

  Zhu Jing, deputy secretary-general of the Beijing Semiconductor Industry Association, pointed out that it is difficult for chips originally used in automobiles to be out of stock, because the supply chain of automotive chips belongs to the type of chip industry with a longer cycle and a relatively stable system.

However, with the rapid increase in the degree of electrification, intelligence, and connectivity of automobiles, the demand for intelligent new energy vehicles for automotive electronics, especially on-board chips, has soared.

At the same time, many chip companies were reluctant to invest in automotive chips before, but transferred a large amount of chip production capacity to consumer electronics, which is also one of the fundamental reasons for the imbalance between the supply and demand of chips.

“It takes about a year to manufacture a chip for the Internet of Vehicles, not counting the previous development time.” Ziguang Guowei, a listed semiconductor company under the Ziguang Group, said that automotive electronic products require the use of automotive-grade electronic components, and the threshold is high. The industrial cycle is long and requires large-scale capital and technology investment, which is a high-end chip.

The long investment cycle of automotive chips also causes chip companies to be reluctant to invest in high production.

  Compared with other car companies that cannot predict the future of chip shortages, the more "easy" is BYD, which does not rely on "imported chips." Relevant insiders of the company revealed that BYD currently has new energy batteries and chips. The entire industrial chain can not only be fully self-sufficient, but also have a "external supply" with a margin.

market prediction

Chip price increase does not necessarily affect car prices next year

  Data show that the global automotive chip market in 2019 is about 47.5 billion U.S. dollars, but the scale of my country's independent brand car company chip industry is less than 15 billion yuan, accounting for about 4.5% of the global market, while the scale of my country's automotive industry accounts for 30% of the global market. %the above.

The direct result of the imbalance between supply and demand is price fluctuations.

NXP, the leading automotive chip maker, issued a price increase letter in November.

Renesas also stated that starting from January 1 next year, it will adjust the prices of products such as power management ICs.

Li Shaohua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association and Minister of Industry Development, also recently reminded vehicle manufacturers: companies in all links of the industry chain are currently lengthening the stocking cycle. In the short term, chip production capacity is still insufficient, and chip prices may rise. Inevitable.

  In the Chinese market, some high-end models of high-end brands will be equipped with ESP systems.

Chip prices have increased. Will some mid-to-high-end models go out of stock and increase prices next year?

The reporter recently interviewed a number of local auto brands authorized 4S shops in Guangzhou and noticed that the terminal market has not been affected by the chip for the time being, and the supply of new car production capacity is scheduled as usual.

  Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association of Passengers, believes that new cars will not form a panic buying trend because the Chinese car market is sufficiently competitive.

He pointed out that the price increase of chips will bring certain pressure on the supply of auto companies, but consumers can choose many models.

In addition, China is currently one of the few markets in the world where auto consumption has recovered vigorously. Foreign auto companies will also tilt their resources to China. It is expected that the market will not see significant price increases for new cars.

"Maybe some high-end models may be affected, and there will be a reduction in terminal discounts, but in the long run, the supply will not be affected."

  People in the chip industry also have optimistic views.

Zhu Jing believes that the trend of automobile intelligence and networking is becoming more and more obvious, and the demand for in-vehicle chips is increasing. At the same time, the recent increase in the price of automobile chips will attract related chip manufacturers to increase their revenue. The share of the chip market is more inclined to the automotive sector.

"At the same time, the emerging independent'China Chip' automotive chip companies usher in historical opportunities."

  The reporter noticed that in the face of this wave of auto manufacturing capacity crisis caused by the lack of "cores", the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers also came forward to urgently carry out "fire fighting" recently.

After a concentrated survey of more than 60 vehicle manufacturers, parts manufacturers and related technology companies, Li Shaohua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association and Minister of Industry Development, stated that the problem of chip supply shortages is real, but Not as serious as the rumors, the market need not panic too much.