The Swedish Public Health Agency's enormous forecast error in March - a maximum of 15,000 was estimated to receive corona in Sweden

When FHM at a press conference on March 2 was asked how seriously they expected Sweden to be affected by the coronavirus, the answer was 1-1.5 per mille at worst, ie 10,000-15,000 cases.

That message came from Director General Johan Carlson, who referred to official statistics on the situation in the Chinese province of Hubei. 

Today we know that the real figure was far greater.

FHM tells SVT that it was based on the figures that were then available, that they did not count on any dark numbers and that just over two weeks later they came up with a new, more pessimistic forecast.

"FHM did not respond"

But according to China expert Kristina Sandklef, FHM missed important tasks;

warning signals from, among others, doctors in Sweden with a Chinese background.

The doctors must have contacted FHM for a meeting, without any answer. 

- The public health authority should have seen it as a warning signal that the doctors may have information that we did not have, she says in tonight's section of the Foreign Office.

Lack of credibility in China's figures

Sandklef says he believes that this information could possibly have contributed to a better picture of the spread of infection.

While Swedish FHM talked about per mille falling ill, Sweden's neighboring countries were also preparing for far larger outbreaks. 

Relying on Chinese statistics may have been a huge mistake, according to Olle Häggström, professor of mathematical statistics at Chalmers University of Technology. 

- If China had been better at reporting the higher spread of infection that they probably still had, it could have led to a slightly more alert reaction, he says.

"The scenarios were reasonable"

The Public Health Agency says in a written comment that the figures in March were based on a conceivably worst case scenario based on data from Wuhan and referred to a first wave. 

"We think that these were good and reasonable scenarios for the regions to use as a starting point in their planning of care resources," writes FHM. 

FHM also writes that they constantly receive proposals from external actors, but that they do not comment on these.

This week's Foreign Office is about future forecasts and difficulties around them.

Watch the program in SVTPlay or 21.45 on Wednesday in SVT2.