Towards a post-Brexit agreement?

In any case, the horizon seemed to emerge on Wednesday December 16, two weeks before the cutoff date of December 31, with real progress in the negotiations, except on fishing.  

"There is a path to an agreement. It may be very narrow, but it is there," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told MEPs.

"The next few days will be decisive", she added, noting progress on two of the three thorniest subjects in negotiation for months: the conditions of fair competition and the governance of the future agreement.

Facing the Bundestag, German Chancellor Angela Merkel also noted "progress", while British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there was "all chances, all hopes" to reach an agreement.

If a "no deal" cannot be ruled out, with its heavy consequences for economies already shaken by the pandemic, the declarations of the last few hours contrast with the pessimism of the past week.

Among the progress highlighted by Ursula von der Leyen, the British commitment to respect environmental, social and fiscal standards at their level at the time of the final divorce on December 31, through an agreement on a "mechanism muscular of non regression ".

But the Europeans, who refuse to see a deregulated economy emerge at their doorstep dumping to the detriment of their businesses, would also like to ensure in the agreement that the British do not deviate from these standards in the future.

Progress has also been made in the field of State aid with the definition of "common principles", intended to ensure that the British do not subsidize their companies at all costs, once they are no longer subject to the very strict European public aid regime.

"Divide the Europeans"

Maintaining these "conditions of fair competition" is considered essential by the EU to give London unprecedented access, without customs taxes or quotas, to its huge market.

Regarding another stumbling block, the governance of the agreement and the way to settle disputes, Ursula von der Leyen announced that it was "largely settled", without giving further details.

The Europeans' objective is to be able to take countermeasures in the event of a dispute with London, such as customs duties or a partial suspension of the agreement, without waiting for the intervention of a classic arbitration procedure.

These sanctions could be taken in the event of a breach of the conditions of competition and concern any part of the agreement.

The EU could, for example, apply taxes on British cars if London no longer complied with environmental rules on another product.

There remains the question of fishing, which is hypersensitive for some Member States (France, the Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, Belgium) and which the British have made the symbol of their regained sovereignty.

>> To see: Brexit, an ocean of uncertainties for fishermen

"Sometimes we have the feeling that we will not be able to find a solution," conceded Ursula von der Leyen.

This is the "most difficult" question, believes a European diplomat, in particular because Brussels will have to "ensure that the Member States suffer equally the consequences" of more restricted access to British waters.

"There are tensions between Member States because the English play on the specific fishing characteristics of the Member States to divide the Europeans", according to a European source.

Amid this uncertainty, European states on Wednesday approved emergency measures to maintain air traffic and road transport on both sides of the Channel for six months, subject to reciprocity.

They must be put to the vote of the European Parliament on Friday.

After officially leaving the EU on January 31, 2020, the UK will abandon the single market and customs union for good on December 31.

Without a trade agreement, its trade with the EU will be carried out under the sole rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), synonymous with customs duties or quotas.

With AFP

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