When encouraging childbirth meets delayed retirement, how should the older generation choose?
The aging population structure and declining birthrate are the main characteristics of an aging society. Increasing the labor participation rate of the elderly by delaying retirement and optimizing the birth policy to increase the fertility rate are two "magic weapons" to deal with the impact of aging.
However, under the background that (foreign) grandparents have become an important force in the care of infants and young children in our country, how to resolve the contradiction between the encouragement of childbirth and the delayed retirement?
A paper published in the ninth issue of "Economic Research" this year gave timely attention to this contradiction.
The article titled "Intergenerational Impact of the Retirement Age System-A Study Based on Childbearing Time Choices" stated that delaying the retirement age will not only affect the labor participation of the generation nearing retirement, but also affect their next generation (children) As a result, the transfer of family time between generations can alleviate the dilemma of childbirth and work for married women to a certain extent.
One of the authors of this paper, Feng Jin, a professor at the School of Economics of Fudan University, said in an interview with China Business News that delaying retirement is the general trend, and relevant departments should also consider the coordination and balance with infant care policies when formulating delayed retirement policies. .
In an environment where the opportunity cost of female childbearing is high and social childcare services are lacking, delays in retirement may further delay the childbearing age and offset the effects of childbirth policies.
Therefore, Feng Jin believes that “flexible retirement is a better policy option. Workers are allowed to choose the time to retire within a certain age range. If there is a third generation in the family to take care of, they can weigh whether to work or retire by themselves. Let the children work and see which decision is the best arrangement for the family."
Intergenerational care affects fertility time
The "Proposals of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and Long-Term Goals for 2035" proposes to formulate a long-term population development strategy, optimize the birth policy, and enhance the inclusiveness of the birth policy.
"Hundred Questions on Learning and Guidance" at the Fifth Plenary Session of the Nineteenth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (Recommendations) mentioned that maintaining the balanced development of the population between generations is a long-term solution to the aging of the population.
The population of our country is undergoing a historical change from quantitative pressure to structural challenges. The large number of elderly people and the small number of young people will become a prominent structural contradiction. This is not conducive to maintaining intergenerational harmony and social vitality, and is not conducive to maintaining the country. Population security and a long-term development strategy for population enhancement.
The data in the above-mentioned Hundred Questions shows that since the beginning of the 21st century, my country's total fertility rate has remained at around 1.6, and the number of births per year is around 16 million.
After the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, small childbirth peaks were formed in 2016 and 2017, with 17.86 million and 17.23 million births respectively, but it fell to 15.23 million in 2018 and 14.65 million in 2019.
Cai Fang, vice-president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, recently called for the "14th Five-Year Plan" to steadily advance the reform of the birth policy and realize independent family birth as soon as possible.
The consensus of the demographic community is that the later the first childbearing age, the lower the total fertility rate.
The childbearing age of contemporary Chinese women has been gradually delayed, and the actual age at first childbirth rose from 24.36 in 1995 to 26.60 in 2012.
The above-mentioned paper stated that compared with before the parents passed the retirement age, the fertility rate of the offspring after the parents exceeded the retirement age has increased significantly, indicating that the offspring will plan their childbearing time according to the retirement time of the parents.
Judging from the reality of our country, when families (especially women of childbearing age) face conflicts between childbirth and work, whether their parents have time to provide intergenerational care may change the choice of birth time.
The above paper uses the data of the Chinese Family Tracking Survey (CFPS) and found that the retirement of the parent has a positive impact on the fertility of the offspring. The basic results show that the probability of giving birth to the offspring will increase by about 6-9%, an increase of about 44%~ 61%.
Compared with Western countries, the complexity of delaying retirement in our country is reflected in the generation of our country’s approaching retirement, who need to take care of the elderly and the third generation of the family.
Data from the Chinese Family Tracking Survey shows that approximately 33.6% of the elderly have helped their children look after their children in the last 6 months at the time of the survey.
The data of the China Health and Pension Tracking Survey (CHARLS) in 2011 and 2013 also show that women and men covered by the urban employee pension insurance system have increased the probability of taking care of their grandchildren after retirement by 30% and 16% respectively. Percentage points.
Feng Jin said that many elderly people who have gone through retirement procedures have begun to take care of their grandchildren. On the one hand, taking care of grandchildren is a long-standing family tradition in my country, and on the other hand, it is related to the serious lack of socialized care system in my country.
Zhang Yi, a researcher at the School of Public Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told a reporter from China Business News that there is a certain conflict between delaying retirement policies and increasing fertility, mainly because many elderly people delay working after retirement and caring for the third generation. .
But the goals of the two reforms are not the same. Both reforms are needed.
How to delay retirement and increase fertility rate in parallel
With the deepening of women's labor participation, the conflict between the mother's time value and childbirth has become more prominent. There is a "fertility penalty" in women's wages, that is, childbirth leads to a decrease in women's working hours and wages.
my country’s female labor force participation rate is relatively high. According to data released by the World Bank, China’s female labor force participation rate was 61.49% in 2017, compared with 55.74% in the United States and 50.50% in Japan in the same year.
Therefore, the opportunity cost for Chinese women to raise children is very high, and they face the dilemma of childbirth and work.
The above paper mentioned that childbearing has a significant negative impact on women’s wage rate. According to China Health and Nutrition Survey Tracking Data (CHNS), it is found that every child born will cause the female wage rate to drop by about 7%, and this effect is in the level of education. It is more prominent among women working in high-level and state-owned sectors.
Feng Jin stated that there is a conflict between women’s time value in the labor market and childbirth. The provision of intergenerational care by parents can help women with higher wages reduce possible childbirth penalties, and cope with insufficient and costly provision of social infant care Status.
In terms of social childcare services, with the market-oriented reforms, the overall proportion of the education sector and collective kindergartens dropped from 77% in 1997 to 33% in 2016.
Moreover, for many years, childcare services for children under 3 years of age are still very lacking. According to data from the Health Commission, the enrollment rate of infants and young children in various care service institutions in my country in 2017 was only 4.1%.
Not only is there a serious shortage of public childcare services, but the supply of childcare institutions established by social forces is also very insufficient and expensive.
How does delaying retirement go hand in hand with increasing fertility?
Feng Jin believes that the postponement of the retirement age policy needs to take into account its impact on the effect of liberalizing the birth policy.
Compared with the mandatory delayed retirement age, the flexible retirement policy has less negative impact on the fertility rate and the probability of women working full-time.
The current need to reform the rigid retirement age system, separate the “age for receiving pensions” and “age for exiting employment”, and stipulate a minimum age for receiving pensions, but it does not require people to withdraw from the labor market.
Zhang Yi said that after the delay in retirement, my country will implement a more flexible retirement system.
There are great differences among the elderly, and the delay in retirement aims to promote the elderly with higher human capital, better physical condition, and urgent needs of enterprises to continue to engage in formal work.
The elderly who are still very productive in family production can still retire early and support them to take care of the third generation through family policies.
"Don't just see the contradiction between the two, but also see the difference in their goals, as well as our more flexible retirement system and family support policies to make these two reforms coordinated with each other." Zhang Yi said .
The above-mentioned papers suggest that by improving the construction of social infant care institutions, reducing the cost of female childbirth.
For 0~3 year old infant care services, the current social care is basically blank.
However, in some countries, such as South Korea, Japan, Germany, France, etc., infant and child services have been included in the government's basic public services.
Yao Kai, director of the Global Science and Innovation Talent Development Research Center of Fudan University, told a reporter from China Business News that under the principle of "small steps, flexible implementation, and focus on incentives", on the one hand, the gradual implementation of delayed retirement will affect the existing labor market. The impact is relatively small, and there is buffer space for the elderly labor force and their families to adapt; on the other hand, in the implementation process, the construction of household services, reproductive services and childcare markets should be increased, and the construction of service-oriented institutions and healthy competition should be encouraged to provide families with Professional services at reasonable prices.
In addition, Yao Kai also suggested that by rationalizing the delayed employment income of the elderly to increase the purchasing power of purchasing market services, the government can also support the development of the housekeeping and childcare market services through tax subsidies and job creation incentives.