The three countries are allying in their favor
US sanctions are pushing Iran, Venezuela and North Korea to rapprochement
Iran has been cooperating closely with Venezuela for some time now.
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US sanctions have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in the countries concerned.
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Heavy sanctions on Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela appear to have imposed on these countries to strengthen their strategic partnership as the United States continues to put pressure on their finances.
In recent years, this fledgling alliance has sought to enhance military, intelligence, economic, and electronic cooperation, thus evading US sanctions.
Over time, these countries could become more adept at evading sanctions and expanding military capabilities that threaten the national security of the United States.
Moreover, the humanitarian repercussions resulting from sanctions have negative consequences for America's reputation, and can reinforce anti-American rhetoric that legitimizes regimes in front of their people.
U.S. policymakers should consider how to adapt the implementation of sanctions to undermine the hostile alliance of sanctioned states, and their growing ability to harm US security interests and threaten the safety of our allies.
The US policy toward Iran has not effectively prevented cooperation between Iran and North Korea in developing weapons.
The two countries have long shared a distrust of US foreign policy, and they rapprochement once the Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA and tightened sanctions.
North Korean diplomat Ri Young-ho, during a visit to Iran in 2018, indicated that the US policy towards Iran makes it “untrustworthy and unreliable”, and that Iran and North Korea “always have similar views” regarding many Issues.
This hostility toward the United States is manifested at the highest level in nearly every aspect of cooperation between North Korea and Iran.
First, Tehran and Pyongyang are cooperating to develop and sell weapons, which provides the basis for future partnerships.
Iran's nuclear program relies heavily on Korean knowledge, and arms sales to Iran support Pyongyang's foreign exchange reserves.
Second: North Korea is also buying energy from Iran, as the evidence points to the transfer of Iranian oil from China to North Korea.
Although the desire for self-sufficiency may ultimately undermine this relationship of interdependence, the two authoritarian colleagues must cooperate with each other to alleviate the pressure from severe US sanctions.
It is worth noting that the two countries may cooperate on cyber attack and defense capabilities, and they could share intelligence information that harms the interests of US allies.
On the other hand, the two countries can relate to each other because they face harsh US sanctions.
Hostile feelings
As the US government continues to impose economic sanctions and calls for regime change, Venezuela has strengthened its diplomatic relations with Iran and North Korea.
Although US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran have effectively reduced independent export earnings, they have inadvertently encouraged increased economic cooperation between the two countries, amid growing anti-American sentiment.
And earlier this year, Iran defied the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign with a fleet of fuel tankers bound for Venezuela, carrying 1.53 million barrels of gasoline and refining supplies.
In clear violation of US sanctions.
In addition, Iran continues to make good use of its status as an observer within the Bolivarian "ALBA" Alliance of the Americas in order to strengthen the existing trade ties with Venezuela and avoid US economic sanctions.
Iran recently opened its first store in Caracas, which the Acting US Secretary of State, Michael Cusack, considered as a "coalition of pariah states."
These bilateral commercial investments lay the foundation for future cooperative efforts to evade US sanctions and strengthen strategic partnerships that harm the national security of the United States.
Although North Korea cannot financially support Venezuela, due to its economic vulnerability, it can provide Venezuela with the advanced military technology and institutional knowledge necessary to further exploit US sanctions to its advantage.
In March 2020, UN experts warned that I would identify loyalists to President Nicolas Maduro, identified as Diosdad Capello, who may have brokered an illegal military and technology deal with North Korea, during his visit to Pyongyang, in September 2019, and a month later, Venezuela opened Its first embassy is in Pyongyang, and "colossal agreements" in agriculture, technology and finance have been reached with North Korea.
Moreover, the North Korean foreign minister committed himself to providing "comprehensive assistance and support to the government of Venezuela", during the embassy opening ceremony.
Prior to 2019, Caracas conducted diplomatic correspondence with Pyongyang through its embassy in Beijing.
Direct communication
Therefore, Maduro's decision to continue direct diplomatic contact with North Korea through his embassy indicates a re-prioritization of the relationship between Venezuela and North Korea, and a possible hedge against the United States.
Although the details of the deal are unknown, North Korea's history of supplying authoritarian regimes in Iran and Syria with nuclear, ballistic and chemical weapons technology indicates that Venezuela could also become a client in the future.
And President Joe Biden's administration will soon have the opportunity to deter this emerging threat by rebuilding the way the US economy is doing.
President Kim Jong Un remained calm in an unprecedented manner, after the results of the US presidential elections, while Maduro expressed interest in resuming dialogue with the US president-elect.
The Biden administration could benefit from food aid to improve relations with these countries without legitimizing their dictatorial regimes.
In addition, the easing of sanctions due to the pandemic and food aid will contribute to alleviating the health problems related to "Covid-19", which further destabilize North Korea, Venezuela and Iran, and this may also ultimately reduce their total dependence on China. And Russia, for its financial stability during the pandemic.
While the Biden administration should not seek to revitalize the economies of America's opponents, it should be aware that continuing to implement a campaign of maximum sanctions will only exacerbate the suffering of ordinary people and encourage more economic entanglement with powers such as China and Russia.
Ramifications
The humanitarian repercussions resulting from sanctions have negative consequences for America's reputation, and can reinforce the anti-American rhetoric that legitimizes regimes in front of their people.
• While the Biden administration should not seek to revitalize the economies of US opponents, it must be aware that continuing to implement the maximum sanctions campaign will only exacerbate the suffering of ordinary people.
• Bilateral commercial investments lay the foundation for future cooperative efforts to evade US sanctions and promote strategic partnerships that harm the national security of the United States.
Jason Bartlett and Emily Jane are researchers in the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security
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