• October: The Andalusian CIS gives the PP 3.8 points of advantage over the PSOE in the regional elections

The Popular Party consolidates its

3-point advantage

over the PSOE and would win the Andalusian elections if held today, with 26.6% of the votes that would grant it 37 seats, ahead of the Socialists, who get 23.5% of the votes and 28 seats, according to the Barometer of the Andalusian Studies Center Foundation (

Centra

) released this Monday.

Comparing these estimates of the so-called Andalusian CIS with the results of the Andalusian elections of last December 2, 2018, the PP

rises by 5.8%

and would go from the current 26 deputies to 37;

and the PSOE

falls 4.4%

, in such a way that its current 33 deputies would be reduced to 28.

The latest survey also consolidates the 'sorpasso' of Vox to Citizens that was already detected in the survey released on October 7.

The party led by Santiago Abascal is ranked as the third political force in the Andalusian Parliament, with 15.7% of the votes, ahead of the 'orange' formation, which gets 12.2% of the votes, with which it would achieve 14 seats, seven less than it currently holds.

Vox, on the contrary, would go from 12 to 17 deputies, according to the survey.

The sum of votes of the PP and Vox would touch the

absolute majority

, located at 55 seats, remaining at 54. In this way, Juanma Moreno could once again have the parliamentary majority that allowed him to take the presidency of the Board from the socialist Susana Díaz, although the second force in that hypothetical coalition would have to be Vox.

If the elections were held today, therefore, there would be a double turnaround that the barometer of last October already detected: the PP would overtake the PSOE, which was the party that won the 2018 elections;

and Vox would be the third political force, taking the position from Cs.

The poll predicts that the electorate would punish the division within Adelante Andalucía, which would go from the 17 deputies that it currently has to only 2, after falling 11.4% in voting intention.

The possible confluence of Podemos and Izquierda Unida would achieve 11 deputies.

Valuation of leaders

Regarding the assessment of political leaders, the only one who approves is the president of the Board, Juanma Moreno, with a 5.32.

They are followed by the vice president of the Andalusian Government and Andalusian leader of Cs, Juan Marín, with 4.73;

the spokesman for the Vox parliamentary group,

Alejandro Hernández

, with a 4;

the general secretary of the Andalusian PSOE, Susana Díaz, with a 3.98;

the general coordinator of Podemos Andalucía,

Martina Velarde

;

and the former leader of Adelante Andalucía and non-attached deputy Teresa Rodríguez, with 3.71.

Regarding the Andalusian Government councilors, none exceeds 5, although the Minister of the Presidency,

Elías Bendodo

(PP), is bordering on the approved one, with 4.91.

They are followed by

Marifrán Carazo

(PP), with 4.86;

Carmen Crepo

(PP), with 4.82;

Javier Imbroda

(Cs), with 4.79;

Juan Bravo

(PP), with 4.75;

Jesús Aguirre

(PP), with 4.73;

Patricia del Pozo

(PP), with a 4.49;

Rocío Blanco

(Cs), with a 4.48;

Rocío Ruiz

(Cs), with a 4.42;

and

Rogelio Velasco

(Cs), with a 4.29.

The survey reveals that the main problem in Andalusia for 57.3% of those surveyed is

unemployment

, followed at a long distance by the coronavirus, which mentions 8% of Andalusians;

the Covid crisis, for 3.6%;

and the health and management crisis referred to by 2.4%.

The Barometer survey of the Andalusian Studies Center Foundation is prepared with a sample designed by the Andalusian Institute of Statistics and Cartography (IECA) of

3,600 interviews

conducted between November 23 and December 3, 2020.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

Know more

  • Vox

  • Citizens

  • PSOE

  • PP

  • UI

  • Forward Andalusia

  • Susana diaz

  • Teresa Rodriguez

  • Juan Marin

  • Andalusia Elections

  • Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla

  • Javier Imbroda

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Politics Teresa Rodríguez considers the latest agreements of the Anti-Transfuguism Pact unconstitutional

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