New energy vehicle sales are expected to increase significantly, and batteries are the key to enhancing competitiveness
Although affected by factors such as the epidemic and weakening of subsidies this year, sales of new energy vehicles have not fallen sharply. The industry expects there may be "surprises" next year.
With the release of the "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", the roadmap for industrial development has become increasingly clear.
What is the prospect of new energy vehicles, how will the charging and swapping models develop in the future, and how to rely more on market forces to solve industrial development problems?
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently hosted the "Industry and Information Salon" to discuss the above issues.
The proportion of personal consumption has increased significantly
Ma Chunsheng, deputy director of the Automobile Development Division of the Equipment First Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that although affected by multiple factors such as the epidemic, weakening subsidies, and falling oil prices, compared with last year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2020 are expected to be the same or even slightly higher last year.
Ma Chunsheng specifically mentioned that from the perspective of market structure, the proportion of personal consumption of new energy vehicles has increased significantly this year, close to 70%, compared with 20% two years ago.
In unrestricted cities, the proportion of purchases reached 60%.
"From the perspective of market drivers, this shows that consumers are increasingly accepting new energy vehicles."
According to Ye Shengji, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, according to estimates, the sales of new energy vehicles this year are expected to be 1.3 million. It is preliminary estimated that the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales next year will exceed 30%, which means that sales in 2021 will reach 1.8 million. Vehicles.
Ye Shengji believes that there are four reasons for the increase in sales of new energy vehicles in 2021: one is the cultivation of the entire industrial chain of new energy vehicles over the years, so that the cultivation of the supply chain of all links has gradually matured; the other is that the relevant policies of government departments can be expected Under the circumstances, consumers are gradually moving from knowledge, cognition to understanding of new energy vehicles, and the entire new energy vehicle products are gradually maturing; thirdly, relevant enterprises can gradually provide abundant and diversified new energy vehicles through innovative R&D and production preparations. Products to meet market demand; fourth, the use environment of new energy vehicles is gradually optimized and improved.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Travel Federation, previously told a reporter from China Business News that the new kinetic energy of new energy vehicles in 2020 has been reflected, and the high-end Tesla and the micro electric vehicle Hongguang MINI have become the core force driving market growth.
The core is to accelerate cost reduction and meet more consumer demands, which is a key factor for the sustainable development of the industry.
Cui Dongshu believes that looking forward to 2021, cost reduction is still the key to narrowing the gap between new energy vehicles and traditional vehicles in the near future.
In addition, with the in-depth advancement of the double-point policy, there is still huge room for new energy vehicles in 2021 at both high and low ends.
Batteries are the key to improving competitiveness
The issue of new energy vehicle batteries has always been the focus of attention of all parties. Since 2009, there has been a dispute over charging and replacing batteries.
Ye Shengji said that there are already many application cases for the separation and swapping of new energy vehicles. In the future, the sales model of separation of vehicles and electricity will be widely recognized in the market. More than 90% of car buyers will choose battery leasing solutions and realize The entire process of battery replacement, maintenance and insurance is guaranteed, eliminating consumers' concerns about difficulty in charging, expensive car purchase, and difficulty in battery maintenance.
At present, our country has the basic conditions to carry out the pilot program for the separation and swapping of electric vehicles.
Ye Shengji predicts that by 2025, the application of car-electric separation and split-point mode will be promoted from the public domain to the private application domain for major models. For models with integrated charging and replacement, they will mainly serve customers who have difficulty in installing charging facilities and inconvenient charging.
The battery factor is a key factor affecting the residual value of new energy second-hand cars, and the low residual value of second-hand cars is the pain point of consumer consumption.
Ye Shengji said that the residual value of second-hand cars is a hot issue. It involves the cost of purchasing new energy vehicles. The cost of purchasing a car is very high. After a few years, the residual value is gone. This is a difficulty in market promotion.
Reducing the cost of car purchase and solving the problem of low residual value of second-hand vehicles is mainly to improve the performance of electric batteries. In the future, new energy vehicles need to strengthen their research on the improvement of power energy performance.
At present, power battery companies have begun to enhance their competitiveness through the innovation of power battery technology.
Tesla said that it will use cobalt-free high-nickel batteries in truck models in the future. BYD has previously introduced blade batteries, and GAC New Energy announced a breakthrough in the field of graphene batteries.
A report recently released by Gaogong Lithium shows that in 2020, there will be a number of innovative changes in the field of power battery technology at home and abroad, mainly around the two major goals of reducing battery costs and improving product performance.
In 2020, the power battery industry will be one after another, full of opportunities and challenges, and global competition will be further upgraded.
Products, technology, capacity, capital, supply chain, etc. will become the key for power battery companies to compete in the future market.
Build a key technology supply system
At the end of October this year, the "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" was officially released. This is a programmatic document on the new energy automobile industry and has important guiding significance for the future development of the industry.
A number of strategic tasks were deployed, and "improving technological innovation capabilities" were put in the first place.
The plan proposes to use pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended range) vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles as the "three verticals" to lay out the entire vehicle technology innovation chain.
Take power battery and management system, drive motor and power electronics, network connection and intelligent technology as the "three horizontals" to build a key component technology supply system.
Hou Fushen, deputy secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineering, believes that the “three verticals and three horizontals” embodies the key core technical fields corresponding to new energy vehicles." At present, my country’s main new energy vehicle "stuck neck" problems are concentrated in the basic part. Including basic materials, basic processes, basic components and so on.
Among them, it also includes some tools for basic development, such as design software, simulation test software, and so on.
Regarding how to solve these "stuck neck" problems, Hou Fushen said that on the one hand, the government needs to increase its support, through special and innovative projects, to organize various forces to jointly tackle key problems; on the other hand, it also needs to rely on demand and the market to pull it.
At the same time, it is also necessary to further improve the protection of intellectual property rights and continue to create a good business environment; relying on key leading companies and unicorn companies in emerging fields to make them truly innovative subjects; finally, it is necessary to strengthen industrial alliances and aim at future forward-looking technology fields. Competitive cooperation.
Hou Fushen also said that industrial alliance is not only the uniting of technological innovation suppliers, but also the uniting of users, so as to form a virtuous circle between users and supply and demand.
Author: sweet wish