Brisket .. The series of suspense continues in the most difficult negotiations in European history

The suspense continues in the Brexit negotiations after the decision of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to extend the negotiations to the end of this month, after they had previously agreed to announce the final decision from the negotiations by the end of the day.

The decision to extend the negotiations, which are the most difficult in European history since World War II, comes in light of many indications from both sides of the possibility of Britain leaving the European Union without an agreement, to the point that Britain has put 4 warships on standby to monitor British waters and prevent European ships from Hunting in the event of exit without an agreement.

Apart from the confident language that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks about his country’s ability to accommodate the exit without an agreement, and that this option would be a "huge" option for the United Kingdom, however, the numbers and estimates indicate that the results of exit without an agreement will be more dangerous than the results of World War II. According to the Bank of England.

According to parliamentary sources who spoke with Al Jazeera Net, the decision to extend the negotiations to the end of this month comes to the parties ’conviction that what has been agreed upon so far constitutes 98% of the outstanding issues, and only 3 main points remain, which are the subject of disagreement.

Lack of food

The statements issued in London or the European Union regarding the ease with which the option to exit without an agreement does not reveal the reality of the reality that confirms that this option will constitute a painful blow to the economies of the two parties, and German estimates indicate that in the event of failure to reach an agreement, 750,000 will lose their jobs in the countries. European.

The British citizen’s pocket will be the first to sense the results of the exit without an agreement, as customs duties will be imposed on foodstuffs coming from the European Union, which means that their prices will rise in the British market, noting that Britain’s food imports from the European market amount to 26% of total British imports.

For its part, the European Union will impose a tax of 2.8% on non-agricultural products, 10% on automobile exports, and 35% on dairy products and derivatives, which will raise their prices in the European market and take them out of competition.

And supermarkets in Britain warn of the possibility of a shortage of foodstuff, first because of the imposition of taxes, and secondly with the long queues of trucks, which will have to wait long days for inspections before entering British territory, as 10 thousand trucks cross a day from the Dover crossing.

The installment store pool also warned that a no-deal exit would cost every British family 600 pounds a year on their food bill.

Income decline

The Budget Office, an independent body, expected that Britain's gross domestic product would decline by 2% in the event of exit without an agreement, which is equivalent to 40 billion pounds sterling, which means that everyone in Britain will have an income of 1500 pounds.

The document issued by the same source expects 300 thousand people to lose their jobs during the next year, especially in the industrial sectors linked to the European Union, for example, the United Kingdom exports 50% of its industrial products to the European Union, and the largest affected will be the auto sector, which will be taxed at 10 percent. %.

Fearing the Brexit chaos, more than 330 British companies moved their headquarters and business from the United Kingdom to the European Union, including 72 financial services companies, and withdrew 722 billion pounds with them from the financial center in London towards the Luxembourg Stock Exchange.

Also, 7,500 workers in the financial sector moved from work in the financial center in London to other centers such as Paris, Dublin and Frankfurt, which would constitute a blow to the financial center in London, which is expected to lose its lead in favor of Wall Street in New York if the exit option is achieved without an agreement.

Hope for an agreement

And expresses both London and Brussels clinging to negotiations until the last breath of the negotiators' conviction that what has been achieved so far can be built on to reach an agreement, in the event of exceeding 3 main points.

In the event that a trade agreement is concluded, British and European goods will benefit from a tax exemption, and the movement of goods will remain smooth between the two parties, because the United Kingdom will ensure that it remains in the European Common Market, which means price stability and the preservation of hundreds of thousands of jobs, as European companies will not be. Located in Britain, it is forced to transfer its business to one of the European countries.

According to parliamentary sources who spoke to Al-Jazeera Net, the 600-page agreement succeeded in resolving most of the controversial points related to immigration and security cooperation. As for the sticking points, they need trust only and can be resolved with time.

The British-European negotiations are currently stalled in 3 points that have not been crossed. The first is the agreement on the "quota" for marine fishing, where the Europeans demand that their ships be allowed to fish in British waters by 80% compared to the current situation, without imposing any fees, while London believes that this condition is He challenged the country's sovereignty over its waters, offering to allow only 20% to European ships.

Fishing in British waters is very important to European ships, which bring them annual revenues of up to 600 million pounds.

The second point is food and agricultural standards, where the Europeans insist that Britain adhere to the same European standards, and in the event that Britain changes its standards, the European Union will impose taxes on these products, while Britain proposes the appointment of a joint committee with the competence to judge the respect of British goods to European standards. .

As for the third dispute, it concerns the Europeans' insistence on returning to the European Court of Justice in the event of any commercial dispute, while Britain says that this is a blow to the legal sovereignty of the country.