The time has passed for the veto for Poland and Hungary.
Polish President Andrzej Duda spoke on Wednesday December 9 of a "preliminary agreement", the result of "relentless efforts", on the subject of the European recovery plan.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban left Budapest visibly confident for "D-Day" at the European summit in Brussels on Thursday.
Its ministers on Wednesday evening shouted "victory", even if the compromise found has yet to be ratified by EU leaders.
Until then, Poland and Hungary were head-on opposing the European Union.
The object of their wrath: the establishment of a new mechanism, deemed arbitrary, which would deprive them of European funds in the event of violations of the rule of law (independent justice, anti-corruption policy, etc.).
According to the details that leaked from the preliminary agreement mentioned by the Polish president, in the event of an appeal, the financial sanctions would only be effective after a decision by the European Court of Justice.
In other words, not before the next legislative elections in 2022, deplored some in Budapest.
Poland and Hungary "can't afford" veto
"The EU bowed, capitulated to the Hungarian Prime Minister," said independent MP Akos Hadhazy.
For him, Viktor Orban would have achieved his ends by emptying the mechanism of its substance but others see progress all the same.
"He is now lagging behind not only the European Union, but also Hungarian voters who want to spend EU money on hospitals, schools and jobs, not on the Prime Minister's family," according to MEP Anna Donath, from the small liberal Momentum party.
An EU report in 2018 pointed to "serious irregularities" in several projects that received funding, including one linked to a company controlled by the leader's son-in-law.
Both Hungary and Poland have decided not to participate in the European Public Prosecutor's Office, the EU's new weapon against fraud and corruption, which is due to start in March 2021.
Until the end, Viktor Orban defended the veto position.
A sign of feverishness, he visited Warsaw twice in recent days, as the Polish-Hungarian alliance seemed to be faltering.
Because, when the EU hinted that it was ready to bypass the two refractories in order to be able to distribute the funds of the post-Covid-19 plan to the 25 other members, the Poles took a step towards Brussels.
"They cannot afford" a veto, said Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw.
"They may well claim" to be able to survive without European funds, "it is not true", she underlines.
Strong Polish and Hungarian support for the EU
It is also difficult to justify such a strategy to public opinion, which in both countries overwhelmingly favors the idea of linking the payment of funds to the rule of law according to recent surveys (66% in the case of the Poles, 77% of Hungarians).
The latest opinion polls also show strong public support for EU membership - 87% and 85% respectively - an "unprecedented level" according to the Budapest-based Median Institute.
The EU is therefore gaining points as the popularity of the Polish and Hungarian leaders falls.
In Poland, the coalition formed around Jaroslaw Kaczynski's Law and Justice (PiS) party, weakened by internal quarrels, saw its rating drop below the 30% threshold.
The government is criticized on the one hand for its management of the second wave of Covid-19 and on the other for the prospect of toughening the anti-abortion law, already among the most severe in Europe.
The project mobilizes against it thousands of demonstrators in many cities.
In Hungary, Viktor Orban, in power without stopping for ten years, "lives the most difficult period of his career", according to the editorialist Miklos Hargitai.
"Until now, he brandished imaginary enemies - George Soros, Brussels or the migrants - but there he faces a formidable adversary who does not bow to his desires: the pandemic."
The Hungarian Prime Minister has also lost one of his faithful, MEP Jozsef Szajer, forced to resign after being caught in a libertine gay party in Brussels in full confinement.
"The propaganda machine is starting to rust," said analyst Peter Kreko of the political capital think tank.
With AFP
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