The following article from the American "Foreign Affairs" deals with the Chinese progress in the field of armed drones, and we chose to refer to it as "drones" instead of "drones."

At a time when China was working increasingly to expand its customer network in this market, the United States was behind in the race due to regulations and regulations that hindered the sale of this lethal weapon to democratic and non-democratic countries alike.

It remained that way until Trump came and reinterpreted the law in a way that would lift the restrictions on the American manufacturer and give it greater freedom to sell.

This race over customers heralds a new form of war that the authors say will mitigate the losses in wars and conflicts.

But is it really possible?

The drone war is one of the most prominent developments in international security of the twenty-first century, and the United States has launched thousands of strikes by these aircraft, ranging from the attack against non-state actors such as Al-Qaeda to the operation that took place last January with the killing of the commander in chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Qassem Soleimani .

Turkey has also deployed its armed marches internally against the PKK, Nigeria against Boko Haram, and Iraq against the Islamic State (ISIS), and Saudi Arabia and the UAE have carried out brutal attacks in Libya and Yemen by using them, and only during the past weeks, Azerbaijan has used armed drones with effective effect to a large extent. There is no war against Armenia, especially against armored vehicles and artillery.

Armed drones are increasingly common, and consequently, these aircraft battles are likely to become more common in the coming years.

Our research shows that 18 countries acquired armed unarmed vehicles between 2011-2019.

In contrast, before 2011, there were only 3 countries that had armed vehicles, which were the United States, Britain and Israel.

Scaled model of the MQ-9 Reaper Variant drone

The rapid rise in the deployment of carriers coincided with the rise of China as a major provider.

From 2011 to 2019, 11 of the 18 countries we've tracked supplied combat aircraft from China.

Conversely, during the same period, the United States exported its combat drones to only one country, France.

With the proliferation of armed marches and the advent of a new administration in Washington, the United States will have to answer difficult questions regarding whether it is willing to sell its advanced drone technology, and to whom.

The United States of America has the most advanced drones in the world and many interested buyers, but an export control system established in 1987 severely limits its ability to sell its armed drones.

The Missile Technology Control System was established during the Cold War with the aim of limiting the proliferation of missiles that could carry weapons of mass destruction.

Under this system, the United States is obligated in most cases to avoid selling Category 1 systems, which are missiles that have a range of more than 300 kilometers and are loaded with more than 500 kilograms of ammunition.

The system was supposed to regulate the work of one-way missiles, not aircraft, but in 1987 the marches were considered close to missiles because they were designed for one-way tasks either to test the missile's accuracy or to closely monitor missions.

However, modern marches are closer to aircraft since they fly in the air for hours or days at a time and then return to the base, but nonetheless remain tied to the 1987 regime. Consequently, and for a long period of the last decade, the United States has been slower to enter the market at a time. China and others began exporting their combat UAVs.

Military vehicle carrying unmanned aerial vehicle

The US restrictions forcefully and unintentionally affected which countries could supply armed marches.

China claims that its exportable systems fall below the standard of the first category of the 1987. In addition, although China says it follows these standards, it is not an official member of the system, and it is consequently more free to choose the markets to which it exports its drivers.

Few of these countries are democratic, and out of the 11 countries that provided armed vehicles from China, such as Egypt and Uzbekistan, nine countries were undemocratic during the first year of the procurement process.

More broadly, non-democratic countries supplied armed vehicles eight times more frequently than non-democratic countries between 2011-2019, according to our research.

One of the reasons that raised the likelihood that non-democratic countries would be armed with weapons during this period compared to the United States is that China imposes relatively fewer restrictions on how those supplied with the weapons they import, and therefore those with it have the freedom to use weapons according to their convenience, even if doing the matter violates the law. International and human rights.

As Guo Guangyu, a retired commander-in-chief of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, said, one of the major advantages that China uses in arms sales is that it “does not impose demands that affect other governments’ conditions or domestic policies, ”compared to the 2015 US policy of exporting marches in 2015. It stipulates that the suppliers should "use these systems in a manner consistent with international law, including international humanitarian law and international human rights law", and not "use unmanned aerial combatants to carry out extrajudicial surveillance or as an illegal force against their local population," and even a close American ally Like France, it needed US permission to operate the MQ-9 at one point.

The United States reserves the preference for stopping the supply of replacement parts and ammunition in the event those countries fail to comply with these rules.

MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aircraft

For these reasons, the drones have spread in much greater numbers from China than in the United States, and the variation in this pattern has had serious consequences, as the US restrictions on drone exports have not prevented the spread of weapons.

Instead, it has placed the coalition of democratic states with the United States in an unenviable position compared to the non-democratic regimes in terms of armed maneuvering.

Meanwhile, China has used truck exports to build defense relationships with countries around the world, including with US partners.

For example, the United States refused requests to acquire unmanned vehicles from Jordan, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, and supplied these countries with Chinese armed drones instead.

In response to these unfavorable dynamics, the administration of US President Donald Trump decided in July 2020 to "reinterpret" the 1987. It will classify aircraft traveling at speeds less than 800 km / h such as the "Predator" and "Reaper" aircraft of the company " General Atomics "within the second category systems, making it easy to export.

Since the policy change, the Trump administration has notified Congress that it has agreed to sell armed drones to Taiwan and the United Arab Emirates, along with pressure from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and then Secretary of Defense Mark Esper on India to purchase armed drones from the United States.

MQ-1 Predator unmanned aircraft

The US willingness to export armed vehicles is likely to diminish the advantage that non-democratic regimes have over democracies in the car market.

Its overall prevalence is likely to increase.

Other potential suppliers such as Turkey have also increased their sales in recent years, and will contribute to the spread of carriages more widely.

For example, Azerbaijan used Turkish-made drones to launch air strikes in its war with Armenia.

Although the frequency of march attacks may increase in the near future as more countries and non-state actors gain access to armed marches, the overall risk of the threat they pose remains relatively low, at least for the time being.

If spotted, it is relatively easy to shoot down current-generation drones compared to manned aircraft, as they are slower, less maneuverable, and usually unable to defend themselves.

Iran, Syria and the Houthis shot down American drones, so the current generation drones have a limited benefit in the disputed airspace, and they may not be of value in a conflict between the advanced military forces.

However, many armies are vulnerable to the strikes of these aircraft as Armenia learned from Azerbaijani attacks on Soviet-era air defense systems.

Technology that enables drones to defend themselves or to overwhelm and defeat enemy defenses could make these weapons more effective in the future.

Some research indicates that the use of drones can lead to stability in some cases, and experimental war games have shown that military decision-makers are more likely to prefer aggressive military responses to shooting down a manned aircraft than in the case of a drone.

For a concrete example, consider President Trump's decision on June 19 to backtrack on air strikes against Iran after it shot down the $ 130 million RQ-4 Global Hawk reconnaissance drone.

To justify his decision, Trump tweeted that the response with air strikes was "not proportionate to the downing of a drone."

Although the long-term impact of this military technology is not yet known, it is clear that the genie is out of the bottle, and that the armed drones are spreading rapidly, and thus looming large questions about the proliferation of the drones for the incoming Biden administration.

President Joe Biden could bring back the Obama-era restrictions on US vehicle exports and once again cede the market to China.

On the other hand, the Biden administration may decide not to go backwards, as drones have become a more regular feature of warfare.

The new administration could also bring about a compromise, and restore a somewhat higher level of scrutiny in exports of vehicles, while making them accessible to close allies, especially democratic countries.

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This article is translated from Foreign Affairs and does not necessarily feature Maidan.