ANALYSIS: The government is run over by SD's surprising NATO line

The four bourgeois parties the Moderates, the Christian Democrats, the Center Party and the Liberals have long argued for a Swedish membership in the defense alliance NATO.

But other parties in the Riksdag have been opposed.

There has thus been no majority for a Swedish NATO membership.

The crucial question after today's decision is whether the parliamentary majority in the NATO issue is now about to change.

The Sweden Democrats also support the announcement of a so-called NATO option, ie that Sweden already points out in advance that NATO membership can quickly become relevant if the security policy situation deteriorates.

Two contradictory messages

The Sweden Democrats' announcement today is surprising, given that the party has always been strongly critical of Swedish NATO membership.

However, the Sweden Democrats claim that the decision on a NATO option should not be interpreted as meaning that the party has changed its position regarding Swedish membership.

SD is still against this, say representatives of the party.

However, both messages are contradictory and do not appear to be logical.

Why have a NATO option if you still clearly say no to a membership?

The Sweden Democrats believe that it is about facilitating deeper defense co-operation with Finland, which already has a so-called NATO option.

Several parties in Finland, for example, are in favor of a NATO option without advocating NATO membership for that purpose.

For the Sweden Democrats, it is also important to show in the Riksdag that they can cooperate with other parties in a politically difficult issue.

The party makes no secret of wanting to cooperate with mainly the Moderates and the Christian Democrats after the next election.

Conversely, it is important, not least for the Moderates, to gather a majority in the Riksdag against the government.

Then it can be argued that the government lacks control over security policy.

In addition, there is irritation within, among others, the Moderates over the Social Democrats' security policy line in government.

Problematic for the government

Regardless of motives, today's message from the Riksdag will have consequences for Swedish foreign and security policy.

This may prove to be the first step towards a parliamentary majority that advocates Swedish NATO membership.

At the same time, it would be unlikely that Sweden would apply for membership if the Social Democrats did not support this.

But even if today's message stops at a NATO option, it still means a clear shift in the security policy line.

When new formulations are introduced about a possible fast track into NATO, it will have direct repercussions on Swedish foreign policy.

For the government, therefore, today's message is problematic.

Not unexpectedly, the Social Democrats believe that the decision harms Swedish security policy.

It is thus ready for political battle in a central issue for Swedish security.

Such disagreement also creates uncertainty in the outside world about Sweden's security policy line.

Today's decision also forces the government to respond to the new message.

However, given that the decision is a so-called announcement, it has no immediate effect.

And whether the government will follow the Riksdag's call is unclear.