"Decoupling" from China?

How far can the Australian Prime Minister’s “self-destructive road” go

  The Australian Federal Parliament passed the high-profile Foreign Relations Act "extremely fast" on December 8, giving the federal government the power to prevent or abolish the signing of agreements between state governments, local governments, and universities with foreign countries.

Public opinion in Australia has made no secret that the new bill refers directly to many China-related agreements, saying that the new bill will give Australian Prime Minister Morrison greater power to "against China."

  At the same time, the Australian industry is paying for the consequences of the Morrison government's continued deterioration of Sino-Australian relations.

Australian Labour Party MP Tim Watts warned on the 8th that the idea of ​​decoupling from the Chinese economy put forward by some hawkish politicians in Canberra is an "unprecedented national self-destruction."

The "Foreign Relations Act" targets China?

  "At present, the anti-China sentiment in Australia (the government) has reached a state of madness." When reporting the news that the "Foreign Relations Act" was officially passed by Parliament, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) international affairs reporter Grant commented on the 8th.

  In August this year, the Morrison government announced that it would introduce the "Foreign Relations Act." Although it was challenged by the Labor Party and blocked, the Morrison government still turned it into a law in less than four months.

According to the bill, the Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs will enjoy the "one-vote veto power", and can examine, block or abolish foreign-related agreements signed by state governments, local governments and universities that violate national interests in a wide range of areas, including infrastructure, trade cooperation, Tourism, cultural exchanges, technology, health and education (including university research cooperation), etc.

  Australian Foreign Minister Payne said in a statement welcoming the passage of the bill on the 8th that if a foreign-related agreement does not conform to Australia’s foreign policy or may adversely affect Australia’s foreign relations, the foreign minister will have the right to block the agreement. , Or cancel the original agreement.

Payne said that Australian states and territories have more frequent high-level exchanges with foreign governments and entities, which has had a tangible impact on Australia’s diplomatic relations and has also brought greater risks to the more complex international strategic landscape in the 21st century. Therefore, “it needs more More consultation and due diligence".

  Morrison also said that when it comes to dealing with foreign countries, Australian governments at all levels can only have one voice.

He said that at least 130 agreements between Australia and 30 countries may be affected by the new bill.

On the 8th, the Australian Federal Trade Minister Birmingham immediately targeted the “target” on the “Belt and Road” cooperation agreement signed between China and Victoria, Australia, saying that the Victorian government has at least three months to explain to the federal government. After the passage of the Foreign Relations Act, whether and how the foreign-related agreements they signed are in line with national interests.

  In October 2018, the Governor of Victoria and the Chinese Ambassador to Australia Cheng Jingye signed a memorandum of understanding on the “Belt and Road” initiative, becoming the first and only state in Australia to reach a “Belt and Road” cooperation agreement with China.

In October last year, the agreement was renewed.

The two parties were supposed to sign the third agreement this year, but it was delayed due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

Previously, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrew said that he still intends to continue signing this agreement if possible.

But now the situation has changed dramatically. Victorian Minister of Finance Tim Pallas admitted on December 8 that after the passage of the "Diplomatic Relations Act", the "Belt and Road" agreement signed between Victoria and China may be affected within a few months. abolition.

  In addition, Bloomberg News reported on December 8 that the "Foreign Relations Act" also allows the Australian Federal Government to review and overthrow the investment, technological cooperation, and Antarctic between China and Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. Signed memorandum of understanding.

The cooperation agreements between Australian universities and China may also be cancelled.

  "The federal government's veto power over the international cooperation arrangements between state governments and universities means that these institutions cannot help the country weather the diplomatic storm." Melissa Taylor, a researcher at the Institute of Asian Studies at the University of Melbourne, Australia, said on the 8th, The "Relationship Act" will encourage an atmosphere of suspicion, "When the political level encounters difficulties, it is precisely when the two countries need to maintain other levels of contact."

  "The new bill gives the Morrison government more power. Will it'pull the trigger'?" The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) analyzed on the 8th that the "Foreign Relations Act" is a policy of the Morrison government towards China. In the big test, whether Australia-China relations will continue to deteriorate or improve has already reached an important point for Australia to make a decision.

Australian agricultural products and other exports to China have been hit hard

  In stark contrast to the eager move to decouple from China, the Morrison administration has turned a blind eye to the continuous "calls for help" issued by the country's economic and industrial circles.

  The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reported on December 7 that in the past few years, China has purchased nearly 40% of Australia's wine exports. China is the largest export market for Australian wine. In 2019, Australian wine exports to China reached 1.28 billion Australian dollars ( (Approximately 6.4 billion yuan) new record, but right now, this market channel is closed.

Affected by the rapid deterioration of the political relations between the two countries, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the implementation of temporary anti-dumping measures from November 28: Australian wine importers must pay a deposit of 1-2 times the customs duty-paid value, and the deposit ratio is 107.1%-212.1%. Wait.

The BBC reported that red wine that used to sell for US$100 may now cost at least US$300, which almost means business shutdown.

This is a devastating blow for Australian winemakers.

  "It's very clear that what we need to work on is how to repair the relationship (with China)." South Australian brewer Osborne said at a recent winemakers meeting. "The word'sorry' is good, but I don't think it will Appear. But this is a very useful way to change the situation."

  The winemakers are not the only ones paying for the Morrison government's China policy.

Since May this year, exports of Australian barley, beef, copper, sugar, lobster, wood, coal, vitamin health products have all suffered heavy losses.

The latest report of the US market research organization IBIS World shows that due to the tension between China and Australia, Australia's agricultural exports such as honey and fruits may lose the Chinese market.

China is an important market for Australian honey, accounting for a quarter of Australia's total honey exports.

For China, there are many other products on the market that can replace Australian honey, such as New Zealand honey.

Harrison, a senior industry analyst at IBIS World, believes that the Australian fruit industry may also suffer a devastating blow if the Chinese market is lost.

At present, more than 45% of Australia's exports of citrus fruits, nuts and other fruits go to China.

  The Australian Department of Agriculture issued a report on the 6th that due to the impact of the deterioration of Sino-Australian relations and the continued impact of dry weather, Australian agricultural exports will fall by 7% from 2020 to 2021, reaching the lowest level in the past five years.

  Australian barley farmer Chris Kelly said he is like the "canary in the mine" in the proverb.

He said: "We have been anxious for years, and now it feels like the worst has come." Roger Katin, the rock lobster capital of Australia and the chairman of the Port MacDonnell Professional Fishermen Association, also fell into despair. He said bluntly: "This is the biggest industry crisis I have witnessed in 50 years." The Australian domestic market cannot support the domestic lobster industry. The Chinese market is very important to the Australian lobster industry. "Not only because of China's huge population, but also because of the Chinese Love it. There are nearly 1.4 billion people in India, but they don’t like lobster.”

According to statistics from the Australian government, China is the largest export market for Australian lobster. From 2018 to 2019, Australian lobster exports totaled 752 million Australian dollars, of which about 94% were sold to China.

Morrison's China policy exposes his strategic incompetence

  While rushing to the "front line" of anti-China in the West, while at the same time worrying about the gains and losses of the Chinese market, this is the reality that the Australian government is creating and must face.

  The Australian Business News website published an article on December 8 entitled "How should we deal with China?"

Ask our neighbors."

The article questioned that the Morrison government's China policy was too tough and unitary, which has caused the Australian country to face difficulties today.

The article stated that China announced that it would impose tariffs of up to 212% on Australian wine, "this effectively punishes the Australian government's open and hardline stance on China."

  Australian politics, business, and academia are also expressing more and more concerns about the Morrison government's China policy.

  Dave Sharma, a Liberal MP led by Morrison and a former Australian diplomat, said at an event organized by the Australian think tank "China Affairs" on December 8 that large-scale decoupling from the Chinese economy is not a serious proposition, because China has deeply integrated into the global economy, and Australia has always been a "huge beneficiary" of China's economic growth and industrialization.

Sharma stated that Australia should patiently seek to establish a constructive relationship with China on the basis of the new reality, and "not allow our relationship to be destroyed."

  Hugh White, a former Australian security and defense official and a professor at the National University, also warned last week: “To win short-term applause to ruin the most important relationship (with China) is bad politics and bad government.” He said The Morrison administration’s handling of this extremely complex issue was clumsy, exposing their strategic incompetence.

"It is precisely what we have provided Beijing with an opportunity to remind other countries in the region to pay attention to a Chinese idiom-to kill the chicken and the monkey. Today, Australia is the chicken that ended badly."

  Regarding the current tense Sino-Australian relations, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying has repeatedly stated that the current Sino-Australian relations have encountered problems. The root cause is that some people in Australia have taken extremely unfriendly measures towards China and have repeatedly violated China’s interest.

China hopes that Australia can reflect on some recent policies and practices, view China-Australia relations in a rational, objective and correct manner, and take practical measures to create conditions for the normal development of China-Australia relations.

  Our newspaper, Beijing, December 9th

  China Youth Daily·China Youth Daily reporter Chen Xiaoru Source: China Youth Daily