Biden's "ambition" of Asia policy

Biden's "ambition

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　　"China News Weekly" reporter / Cao Ran

　　Issued at 2020.12.7, Issue 975 of "China News Weekly"

　　Although outraged at the assassination of Iran’s chief nuclear scientist Fahrizad in Iran, the Iranian journalist Pasha, who is engaged in international coverage, does not believe that Fahrizad’s death will lead to a full-scale conflict between Iran and the United States.

　　On the afternoon of November 27, local time, Fahrizad, escorted by three bodyguard vehicles, was attacked on a main road outside the capital Tehran and died due to serious injuries.

Both Iranian officials and public opinion allege that the killer was an Israeli spy organization supported by the United States.

　　Different from the reaction of the senior Iranian general Soleimani after he was assassinated by the US army at the beginning of this year, the Iranian government’s response this time was relatively restrained. It targeted Israel instead of the United States in threats of retaliation, and sought more support from the EU and the international community. Public opinion support.

　　Pasha's analysis of China News Weekly believes that since the current US President Trump is destined to step down in two months, Iranian top officials are willing to leave room for reconciliation for the new US government.

President-elect Biden has announced that he will return to the Iran nuclear agreement abandoned by Trump. This means for Pasha and her colleagues "better material life, more opportunities to study abroad, and a safer place to sit." New passenger aircraft", and no longer worry about the frequent security crisis.

　　On the other side of Asia, after Harris, who has Indian descent, was elected as the Vice President of the United States, his Indian relatives and friends held a grand ceremony in New Delhi.

But the Indian government aides also warned Modi that the "Indo-Pacific Alliance" may go bankrupt with Trump's step down.

The Diplomat pointed out that Biden’s Asian policy “seems to replace the current tensions and conflicts with a series of new tensions and conflicts”.

　　In an interview with China News Weekly, Bao Daoge, vice president of the Carnegie Peace Foundation, believes that pulling power from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region is an important trend in Biden's foreign policy.

But whether it is an ally or an opponent, the anxiety of the countries in the Indo-Pacific region about the Biden era "far exceeds Washington's prediction."

"A safe and prosperous Indo-Pacific"

　　In the call to congratulate Biden on his election as President of the United States, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga suggested that Biden work together to promote a "free and open Indo-Pacific."

However, as with Australia, India, South Korea and other countries, Biden chose a different statement in response: "a safe and prosperous Indo-Pacific."

　　"Free and open Indo-Pacific" was the first concept proposed by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during the Obama era.

At that time, the policy of the White House was "Asia-Pacific rebalancing", that is, to strengthen partnerships with ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, and Australia as the fulcrum, promote regional trade integration, and counterbalance the rise of China.

Biden’s recently nominated candidate for US Secretary of State Blincol and National Security Assistant candidate Sullivan are both important executors of the strategy.

　　However, the governments of Japan, Australia and Indonesia believe that "Asia-Pacific rebalancing" lacks attention to India.

After 2012, the three countries successively proposed to transform the "Asia-Pacific" into the "Indo-Pacific" strategy, but the Obama administration did not bring India, which is outside the traditional circle of allies, into the alliance.

　　It wasn't until Trump, a business pragmatist who invested heavily in India, entered the White House that the U.S. State Department upgraded the "free and open Indo-Pacific" to a diplomatic strategy in 2017.

Since then, the U.S. Pacific Command was renamed the Indo-Pacific Command; a loose security alliance that regularly conducts joint military exercises was established between the United States, Japan, Australia, and India.

　　Against the background of India's growing national power and Sino-US competition, Trump's "Indo-Pacific" strategy is not a whim.

After 2018, Britain, France, and Germany, which were not in sync with him in diplomacy, also upgraded their Asia-Pacific strategies to Indo-Pacific strategies.

On the other hand, during the Trump era, ASEAN countries were obviously left out.

Obama attended the annual ASEAN summit seven times during his eight-year tenure, but Trump never attended the entire summit once; even if the meeting went online during the epidemic, only National Security Adviser O'Brien attended.

　　This has also become the focus of Biden's criticism of Trump's Indo-Pacific strategy.

From the signed long article published in the March/April issue of Foreign Affairs this year to the Democratic Party’s 2021 platform, Biden has been avoiding the term "Indo-Pacific" and trying to recapitulate a new version of "Asia-Pacific rebalancing."

Brinken constantly emphasized the significance of ASEAN to Biden, saying that “ASEAN is vital to addressing major challenges such as climate change and global health. President Biden will attend the ASEAN summit and discuss these issues with ASEAN countries.”

　　During the Biden campaign, Brinken also explained that reshaping the Asia-Pacific strategy does not mean that US-India relations return to the original point.

However, some Indian analysts who hold a "hawkish stance" still expressed concern, believing that this means that the Indo-Pacific alliance mechanism that India is trying to promote will lose the support of the United States.

　　Fumiko Sasaki, an expert on Japanese and Asian issues at Columbia University, pointed out to China News Weekly that Biden often uses the expression "Asia-Pacific" instead of "Indo-Pacific", which inevitably makes the U.S. ruling and opposition parties and allied hawks that have "turned to the right" as a whole. Lenovo's core members of the team maintained a "good relationship" with China when they were responsible for the "Asia-Pacific Rebalancing" strategy.

　　However, Richard Haas, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who is close to Biden’s team, recently wrote that these Biden’s diplomatic advisers are well aware that the world has changed and they can no longer solve the current Indo-Pacific with the old solutions of the Obama era. Regional U.S. diplomatic issues.

　　"Biden and his team are liberals, but they are essentially liberal realists." Sasaki Fumiko analyzed to China News Weekly, saying that at present, American public opinion and Congress generally hold more negative views on China than they were four years ago. Attitude.

Therefore, even if some key figures in Biden’s diplomatic and security teams tend to cooperate with China, “they are likely to quickly turn into hawks in China’s eyes because of their realism.”

　　Sullivan said frankly that the election of Biden will not suddenly change his partners' views on Washington, and that "the United States must take its time."

The well-known American think tank RAND predicted in a report that this means that Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy is “probably only a formal rather than a substantial change” from Trump’s.

Biden's "America First"

　　As Biden's former nuclear affairs adviser, former Assistant Secretary of State De Thomas believes that Fahrizade-style tragedies are difficult to stage in the Biden era.

"On the Iranian nuclear issue, the new government will seek to restore Obama. What I mean is that the United States will cooperate with its European partners rather than confront them, and will no longer try to suppress the Iranian regime through unilateral actions." "China News Weekly" said.

　　During Biden's chairmanship of the Senate's Foreign Affairs Committee, De Thomas made many suggestions for Biden as an expert on the North Korean nuclear issue.

During Biden's Obama administration as Vice President, De Thomas served as the U.S. government's special adviser on North Korea and Iran nuclear issues.

　　De Thomas revealed that on the North Korean nuclear issue, the Biden administration would not choose to go back in time, "at least it is more ambitious than Obama."

Among the specific policies of Biden’s “secure Indo-Pacific” strategy, in addition to strengthening US-India-Australia-Japan military cooperation and intelligence cooperation with ASEAN, and promising to ease the pressure on South Korea’s defense cost sharing, the most important thing is to inherit Trump. The legacy of the dialogue between North Korea and the United States of the times has further promoted the settlement of the Peninsula nuclear issue.

　　"I am sure that the Biden administration will not give up summit-level talks with North Korea." De Thomas told China News Weekly. "However, the new government may promote more professional negotiations with North Korea and does not seek a way to go through the summit alone. To solve it."

　　On November 18, South Korean Unification Minister Lee In-young had a video meeting with William Perry, the diplomatic adviser of the Biden team.

As the Secretary of Defense who played a key role in breaking the ice in North Korea-U.S. relations during the Clinton administration, Perry once proposed the three phases of the "Perry Process" to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue: North Korea stopped launching missiles and the United States lifted economic sanctions at the same time; North Korea; Stop research and development of nuclear weapons; normalize relations between North Korea and the United States and establish a peace mechanism on the peninsula.

　　This is more "tolerant" than the North Korean policy proposed by the Trump administration, and it is also closer to the main demand made by the North Korean side during the second Kim special meeting held in Hanoi, that is, to dismantle all Ningxia under the joint supervision of experts from North Korea and the United States. Border nuclear facilities in exchange for the partial removal of sanctions against North Korea.

South Korea and the United States have reached a consensus and will send a positive signal to North Korea as soon as possible to realize the Korean President Moon Jae-in's promise that "the peace mechanism on the peninsula will not be interrupted by the replacement of the US president."

　　However, De Thomas said that the progress of North Korea-US relations in the Biden era will largely depend on North Korea.

As of December 1, North Korea has still not spoken out on the results of this US presidential election.

According to Yonhap News Agency statistics, in 2008, 2012 and 2016, North Korean official media mentioned the "new government" or "newly elected president" of the United States within three days after the U.S. election day.

So far, the only time North Korea has publicly mentioned its relationship with the new US government has been Kim Yoo-zhe's speech in July this year that "euphemistically rejected the US proposal for a North Korean-US dialogue."

At the time, she said: "We also have to deal with President Trump, and with the future US regime and with the entire United States."

　　In terms of realizing a "prosperous Indo-Pacific", Biden's policy remains unclear.

During the campaign, he promised to rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that Trump ended negotiations.

After Trump announced his withdrawal, the remaining 11 countries in the TPP negotiations finally reached the "Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership" (CPTTP), but it did not cover the protective clauses strongly advocated by the US government during the Obama era.

　　Sasaki Fumiko pointed out that considering Biden's campaign to promote "rejuvenating local industries", he will be more protectionist than Obama, which also means that rejoining the CPTTP requires lengthy negotiations.

What makes some member states unacceptable is that officials of the US State Department are considering linking CPTTP accession to the "secure Indo-Pacific" strategy, and adding a similar military alliance rule, that is, an economic and trade attack on one member state is an attack on all member states. .

　　In addition, many restrictive measures during Biden's period will put more emphasis on linking with human rights issues, and "liberalism is also an ideology."

As the new secretary of state, Brinken made it clear that this is one of the three pillars of Biden’s foreign policy, and that “this is a key priority in many countries experiencing democratic decline.”

　　However, some analysts believe that the essence of the "prosperous Indo-Pacific" policy is still "America first."

In response to Biden's policy of revitalizing local enterprises, Kuniya Miyaka, director of the Canon Global Institute of Tokyo think tank and former official of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, pointed out that Biden "in fact still prioritizes the United States, but did not say the slogan of'America First'."

Biden also pointed out in an article published this year that the starting point of his foreign policy is the middle class of the United States and the ultimate goal is "to defeat China or any other country in future competition."

　　This year, after investing trillions of dollars in a stimulus plan, the ratio of US debt to gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to reach 98%, the highest level since World War II.

Michael Green, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a US think tank, pointed out that this may mean that more conservative economic and trade policies will return in the Biden era.

　　In a recent interview with the media, Richard Fontaine, president of the Center for New American Security (CNAS) and a former official of the US State Department, suggested that the outside world can judge the new situation by observing whether Biden maintains or relaxes the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on China. The government's policy tone.

In addition, whether it is security or prosperity, Biden's Indo-Pacific policy generally depends on his interaction with the Republican-controlled Senate, and it depends on "how much political capital he is willing to spend to trade with Republicans."

　　China News Weekly, Issue 45, 2020

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