"Claims without grounds": what is behind Tikhanovskaya's words about readiness to lead Belarus in the "transition period"

The leader of the Belarusian opposition and former presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya said that she was ready to lead Belarus in the "transition period".

“I officially declare that I am ready to lead the country in the transition period,” she said in a video message posted on her Telegram channel.

According to Tikhanovskaya, she intends to gather “the best experts and democratic forces so that Belarus approaches the new elections with the least shocks.”

For this, a coordination council of the opposition and a cabinet of representatives in various fields were created.

“We have already developed a concept for new elections, a draft constitutional reform to be carried out after Lukashenka’s resignation, a program of economic assistance to vulnerable groups, support for small and medium-sized businesses,” Tikhanovskaya said.

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• © GEORG HOCHMUTH / APA

Recall that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is a former presidential candidate in Belarus.

According to the Central Election Commission of the republic, 10.1% of Belarusians voted for it.

The incumbent head of state Alexander Lukashenko was supported by 80.1%.

After the end of the voting, mass protest actions began in the country, and the Belarusian opposition refused to recognize the election results, accusing the authorities of falsifying the voting results.

Tikhanovskaya later left Belarus and is currently in Lithuania, from where she makes statements as the leader of the opposition, and also holds meetings with European politicians.

President without portfolio

This is not the first statement by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya made recently from the position in which she identifies herself as the head of Belarus.

In mid-November, Tikhanovskaya announced the creation of a people's tribunal, which, according to her, is necessary due to the inaction of the Belarusian judicial system.

“I, Svetlana Tihanovskaya, declare a people's tribunal and amnesty for the capture of Lukashenka and members of his terrorist group.

If the state court system doesn't work, we can do it without it.

Everyone who has cynically violated and is violating the law should answer, ”she wrote in her Telegram channel.

Tikhanovskaya announced that within the framework of the plan it was necessary to "neutralize the ideologists and accomplices of the regime, collect and verify evidence of the crimes of the regime."

On November 26, during a working visit to Minsk by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, she stated that any official agreements concluded under the leadership of Alexander Lukashenko would be revised by the country's new authorities.

“Whatever Alexander Lukashenko may agree on, he has lost the support of the Belarusian people.

This means that all his deals and contracts will be reviewed and canceled by the new government, ”she wrote again in the Telegram channel.

In her statement, Tikhanovskaya stressed that she stands for "friendly and partner relations with Russia," but at the same time "the independence and sovereignty of Belarus cannot be a subject of bargaining."

Sanction pressure

In addition to statements positioning her as the head of state, Tikhanovskaya has already several times called on European politicians to impose sanctions against Minsk, despite the fact that the EU has already introduced restrictions against Belarus twice in two months. 

The first package of sanctions came into force on October 2.

Then, 40 people were included in the European black list, who, according to Brussels, were involved in electoral fraud and violence against protesters.

In early November, the second package of restrictions was adopted, which included the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, his son Viktor and 13 other people from the circle of the Belarusian President.

In turn, the head of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, Vladimir Makei, said that Minsk would, in response, expand its sanctions list against the EU leadership.

In mid-November, Tikhanovskaya announced that she was seeking the introduction of additional sanctions against the country's leadership and the termination of foreign banks' work with Belarusian ones.

She also said that the opposition is discussing the possibility of disconnecting Belarus from the international banking system of SWIFT payments.

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Prior to that, at a meeting with the leadership of Latvia, Tikhanovskaya suggested introducing economic sanctions against Minsk.

In particular, she called on the National Bank of Latvia to stop cooperation with the state banks Belarusbank and Belagroprombank, introduce restrictive measures against state-owned enterprises of the republic that fire striking employees, and revise contracts for the purchase of oil products and metal products, timber and woodworking industries, and alcohol.

The oppositionist also said that at a meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands Stefan Blok, she discussed some international investigations against the authorities of Belarus, as well as the launch of the process of recognizing the OMON and the Main Directorate for Combating Organized Crime and Corruption of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus (GUBOPiK) as terrorist organizations.

In a conversation with RT, RANEPA teacher Sergei Margulis noted that by the "transitional period" Tikhanovskaya apparently means the time from the moment Lukashenko leaves the presidency and until the new head of state comes to power.

“In addition, she means the beginning of a transition period in the country's economy, within which we will talk about privatization, since now the economy of Belarus is largely dependent on the state,” the political scientist suggested. 

According to Sergei Margulis, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya expects to receive a mandate to lead the country from the coordination council of the opposition, which, in turn, believes that it was she who won the last elections.

“But all her statements are not legitimate.

In the current political conditions, the focus of attention of world leaders and forces has switched from Belarus, first to the terrorist attacks in France, then to the events in Nagorno-Karabakh and the elections in the United States.

Therefore, Tikhanovskaya needs to somehow maintain interest in the opposition movement, to demonstrate that she is making political steps, ”the expert noted.

Vladimir Olenchenko, Senior Researcher at the Center for European Studies, IMEMO RAS, shares this position.

“Tikhanovskaya continues the line of unceremonious claims to take part in the political life of Belarus.

But there are no grounds for this, since she does not have experience in public administration, corporate governance, or the ability to conduct a dialogue with the public.

In addition, all her appeals are in the nature of ultimatums, which is not an instrument of dialogue or management, ”the expert noted.

At the same time, many appeals are made with the expectation of a Western audience, and not of Belarusian citizens, Olenchenko added.

At the same time, in his opinion, Tikhanovskaya represents only a part of the people who have appointed themselves to the coordinating council.

“But this committee doesn't even grasp the concept of a political minority, it's just a group.

Tikhanovskaya expects to receive a mandate from this group to lead the country, but her gamble and ultimatums are obviously futile.

She is now playing out either megalomania, or she has taken on too many obligations to external observers and acts, generates those ideas that they think are useful and promising in order to re-subordinate Belarus to themselves, "the political scientist emphasized.