[World Report] "It's not easy to change relations between North Korea and the United States...

"Even if the US Biden government is inaugurated, it is difficult to expect changes in North Korea-US relations right away. But in time, North Korea cannot afford it."

In a recent interview with SBS, former Chinese Communist Party Professor Zhao Fujii, an expert on the Korean peninsula in China, said in a recent interview with SBS about the relationship between the US and North Korea after taking office as President-elect Joe Biden, "the key variables between North Korea and the US have not changed. "It is difficult to make a big change above."

The Biden administration, which has appointed former Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blincoln as Secretary of State, is raising the possibility of applying an Iranian solution that emphasizes a step-by-step approach and sanctions in North Korea policy.

Currently, North Korea is showing a cautious appearance in relation to the election of Biden, instructing foreign missions not to stimulate the United States.

Professor Zao refrained from premature expectations of the Biden administration's policy toward North Korea, and diagnosed the situation in North Korea, saying, "We suffered a big blow from the slow economic reforms, even corona 19 and flood damage, and we are not comfortable in time."

He stressed that the role of South Korea is important, fearing the possibility that the crisis inside North Korea will be transmitted to the outside.

Regarding the US-China relations, Professor Zhao came up with a pessimistic outlook, contrary to some expectations.

Since the conflict between the United States and China is structured, the possibility of improving the relationship after Biden's inauguration is not high, and the conflict will prolong.

He pointed out that US checks cannot prevent China's development, but rather promotes Chinese patriotism.

Former Central Party Professor Zhao Fujii is from Heilongjiang Province and received a doctorate from the Department of Political Administration and Administration at Peking University.

The Central Party School is a national educational institution that fosters high-level Chinese Communist Party officials, and key officials must receive education there.

President Xi Jinping and former President Hu Jintao also served as the principals of the Central Party School before taking office.

I think it is difficult to expect a big change right away.

Above all, there is no change in key variables.

The most important question for the United States is,'Does the North Korean nuclear threat threaten the security of the US mainland?'

The second is the nuclear proliferation problem, and the third is a very important part. The United States has been using the North Korean nuclear problem as a means to check China.

In fact, Trump has never taken the North Korean issue seriously after North Korea's nuclear development stopped.

There was nothing urgent because the threat to the security of the US mainland was reduced.

For North Korea, two are the key variables.

One is national security, and the second is that Chairman Kim Jong-un, who must prove the ability and legitimacy of governance, has now shifted the focus from the Songun politics and nuclear-economic parallel lines to the'economic priority policy'.

There are no factors that will change these variables at this time, so a change in the US leader is unlikely to change the relationship immediately.

In addition, Biden has a pile of problems that must be dealt with right away, such as domestic integration, Sino-US relations, and restoration of alliance relations.

It is expected that the US policy toward North Korea will not be captured until mid-next year.

The core of North Korea-US relations now is'who will act first?'

I don't think North Korea's Chairman Kim Jong-un has no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons.

North Korea's population is 25 million, similar to Jilin Province, China, and has developed nuclear and ballistic missiles with that amount of money.

The economy is bound to be difficult.

Since national security has been the top priority during the Songun politics, the economic structure is also centered on the military industry.

Three conditions are necessary for this economy to function properly.

The first is that there must be a massive munitions market, which means that there must be a big war.

The second is that production must be possible, such as procurement of materials, and the third is that it must be of good quality, but none of these three.

In this situation, economic development success is impossible.

The success of China's reform and opening up is that national security has been guaranteed as relations with the United States loosened, and military-related industries were largely turned to the private sector.

Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un are three different.

First, being young.

Because of their lack of experience and real power, they must prove that they have power in their hands, but at the same time, it means that their political ideology is not firm.

The second is that the environment is different.

Father Kim Jong-il had been under his grandfather Kim Il-sung for 21 years, and Kim Jong-un stood alone.

The third is the most important part, and it is that I have experience studying abroad.

Even when I was young, I could feel the politics, economy, and culture of advanced countries.

After all, these three mean that the variability is huge.

Now, what Kim Jong-un has turned from the Songun politics to the nuclear-economic translational line and now the economic line is a number of calculations, and I personally believe that he made a'decision of life and death'.

In order to change the policy, many purges were carried out, and many businesses of the military and the party were changed while reorganizing the structure of the military, party, and political relations.

In addition, this fact was informed not only domestically, but also to the world.

In addition, they almost retired the elders and hired a large number of young people, which is very similar to the change in the power structure in the late 70s and early 80s, the early years of reform and opening in China.

I made a big decision and changed it.

National security is essential to this decision.

Wouldn't Kim Jong-un's goal be long-term and effective governance?

In the current situation, it is impossible to go about nuclear development and economic construction at the same time, and one has no choice but to give up.

Will Kim Jong-un give up economic construction because of nuclear development?

It was not just that Kim Jong-un announced his intention to give up nuclear weapons.

If you do not believe this, the North Korean nuclear issue has no premise.

From the perspective of North Korea, it has no choice but to determine the damages resulting from abandoning nuclear weapons, the degree of guaranteed national security, and the outcome of economic development resulting from the removal of sanctions.

Although Kim Jong-un introduced a ``new economy first policy'' in 2018, it has not yet been effective, and two negatives have been added this year.

Sujae and Corona 19.

For North Korea, this means that it is very dying, and that time is not enough.

In addition, Kim Jong-un shed tears that seem to have been calculated in front of the people at a fever ceremony in October.

And recently, two men were awarded the title of Marshal.

It is a situation that needs support from the people and soldiers.

Even until the Biden administration's policy toward North Korea comes out, it must be handed over, but if the North Korean internal crisis is serious, it has no choice but to pass it on.

In the end, it means that you have no choice but to burst something.

Korea's role is very important here.

Relations surrounding North Korea are now very rigid, but the role of South Korea is more important than China.

It is clear that South Korea is the place where North Korea can get help.

Basically, there are three obstacles to inter-Korean relations.

Differences in ideology and system, differences in economy, differences in international status.

To overcome this obstacle, a high degree of political wisdom is required, but I think the breakthrough will be the economy.

In the current situation, South and North Korea must lead together, but South Korea cannot solve the problem only when the United States and China are aware of it.

This is possible when you do it with confidence in a direction that draws support.

Personally, the Korean government replaced the Minister of Unification, the Chief of the National Intelligence Service, and the Chief of Security with very experienced people, and I am looking forward to seeing a good plan.

The relationship between China and the United States is so structured.

There are two problems.

First of all, in the United States, the industrial structure collapsed and the middle class suffered a lot as the manufacturing industry moved abroad.

China has achieved a lot of growth through the wave of reform and openness, globalization and globalization.

According to data from the United Nations in 2018, China is the only country with a perfect industrial structure such as manufacturing.

The US cannot accept this result.

Another issue is the US attitude toward the Chinese Communist Party.

The United States does not know the Chinese Communist Party and only looks at China through Western party theory.

I think the Chinese Communist Party inherited the old system.

One of the many factors that China achieved in 2000 was its past system.

Successive dynasties effectively absorbed the elites around the king through the old system.

And with the Librarian Pentateuch, the elite group was united.

There are now 90 million members of the Chinese Communist Party, which contains almost all of the Chinese elite.

It is a means by which the CCP replaces the old system and unifies China through elites.

It is not a means of election like Western political parties.

The Chinese Communist Party's socialism is not at all contradicting the values ​​of civilization like the Nordic democratic socialism that emphasizes community.

However, the United States does not understand the CCP from their own perspective, and structural contradictions arise.

Biden is different from Trump's Twitter politics and populism, and there seems to be a difference in using international organizations and allies to keep China in check.

However, it would be like Biden or Trump that China should not lead industries and new technologies, and in the end, the conflict between China and the United States will inevitably be prolonged.

China is painting a great big picture.

It is the'double cycle' supplemented by the'outer cycle' that maintains a close connection with the world economy, centering on the'inner cycle' that develops the domestic economy.

In the inner cycle, in particular, it is drawing a big picture of investing 30 trillion won in the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G over the next five years.

The United States is currently holding a variety of China checks, but this is only a delay, but overall, there is no way to stop the trend.

Rather, such checks by the United States have had the effect of enhancing patriotism in China.

(Photo = Getty Image Korea, Pyongyang Chosun Central News Agency, Yonhap News)