Will the assassination of nuclear experts become the fuse for the escalation of the US-Iran conflict?
According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, Iran held a funeral ceremony for the assassinated Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsin Fakrizad in the three cities of Mashhad, Qom and Tehran. The funeral ceremony will be Held on the 30th of this month.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and Iranian President Rouhani respectively expressed their views on the death of an Iranian nuclear physicist in the previous day’s attack.
Khamenei said that the perpetrators of terrorist crimes should be punished.
Although no organization or individual has announced the attack, the Iranian side believes that the attack was planned and carried out by Israel and accused the United States of being behind the scenes.
■ Will Iran retaliate?
Khamenei issued a statement on the 28th, saying that the first priority of the Iranian side is to "clearly punish" the murderer and those who ordered the killing of Muhsin Fahrizad.
Rouhani also expressed condolences to Fahrizad who died in the attack that day, and said that terrorist acts will not hinder Iranian scientists from continuing their efforts.
Iran’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Majid Takht-Lavansi wrote to the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the rotating chairman of the Security Council that month that there were “clear signs of Israeli responsibility” behind the assassination.
He pointed out that in the past ten years, many top Iranian scientists have been assassinated.
Analysts pointed out that Iran has vowed to avenge Fahrizad. If the US personnel are killed in retaliation, the possibility of military conflict between the United States and Iran will increase significantly.
However, Iran does not want to be involved in the war.
Liu Lanyu, a visiting scholar at Tehran University and an expert on Iran at Tsinghua University, believes that the assassination of key Iranian figures by external forces is a provocation or temptation to stimulate Iran to make "excessive retaliation", thereby creating an excuse for military actions against Iran.
However, in the current sensitive period of the transfer of power in the United States, Iran may try to minimize the risk of triggering a direct conflict.
■ "Assassination" of the Iran nuclear agreement?
Mark Fitzpatrick, a former US State Department official in charge of nuclear non-proliferation affairs, said that Iran’s nuclear program has already passed the stage of relying on individual scientists. The assassination is not to destroy Iran’s “war potential”, but to destroy Diplomatic channels for handling the Iranian nuclear issue.
The diplomatic team of US President-elect Biden has made it clear that the new government will return to the track of the Iran nuclear agreement.
Anthony Brinken and Jack Sullivan, who were announced by Biden not long ago as Secretary of State and Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, have participated in the negotiations on the Iran nuclear agreement and are staunch supporters of the agreement.
Sullivan previously stated that returning to the Iran nuclear agreement will be a priority in the diplomatic field of the new US government.
Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury School of International Studies in the United States, believes that the purpose of the assassination of Fahrizard is to "assassinate" the Iran nuclear agreement before the Biden administration takes office.
Liu Lanyu believes that the Iran nuclear agreement is a political achievement of Biden when he was vice president under the Obama administration.
Between January when Biden officially takes office next year and June when Iran’s next presidential election, the United States and Iran may have a better window for negotiations, but there are still many variables in the internal and external situations facing each other.
Comprehensive Xinhua News Agency, CCTV News