It does not seem ready to meet all the demands of the new US administration

Tehran tends to raise the level of escalation with Washington

  • The Iranian leadership may not be able to return Washington to the nuclear deal, according to Biden's terms.

    ■ AFP

  • Biden is open to the Iranian leadership, but on his terms.

    ■ a

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Despite the positive signs that the new US President Joe Biden directed to Iran, which indicates his efforts to establish new channels of communication with it, it is still keen to raise the level of escalation, which is evident in the increase in the amount of enriched uranium that reached 12 times what is permitted in The nuclear agreement, and the injection of uranium gas into more advanced centrifuges.

Iran may try, through this, to raise the bargaining ceiling with the incoming Biden administration, in preparation for negotiations through which understandings may be reached on the mechanisms of Washington's return to the nuclear agreement.

Parallel procedures

Iran has started, in the recent period, to move towards raising the level of escalation with the United States of America, in parallel with its keenness at the same time to promote that the results of the US presidential elections do not concern it and will not affect its policy towards the various files.

In this context, the International Atomic Energy Agency indicated, on November 19, that Iran not only installed more advanced centrifuges in the "IR 2-M" Natanz reactor, but also pumped uranium gas into those devices, in a manner. It represents a new violation of the nuclear agreement, which stipulates limiting the use of centrifuges to the first model "IR 1" only.

This prompted France to assert, on the same day, that "the Iranian nuclear program has reached a dangerous threshold and is less able to be monitored today than it was as a result of the Vienna Agreement."

The commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami, confirmed, a day later, that the Revolutionary Guards would not adhere to a specific geographical area to defend Iran's interests, after he announced the construction of an unmanned aircraft carrier equipped with missile launchers.

Several goals

This may seem contradictory to the direct calls made by some Iranian officials to the new US President, Joe Biden, to adopt a policy different from President Donald Trump's towards Iran, and to implement the "return for return" approach that was previously announced, similar to the Secretary of State. Muhammad Jawad Zarif, who indicated the possibility of Iran automatically returning to abide by its commitments in the nuclear deal in the event that the US sanctions imposed on it are lifted.

However, a review of such measures and the timing of their implementation suggests that Iran is seeking the same goal, but through a different mechanism.

In other words, Iran is seeking to negotiate with the Biden administration.

And it may have tried to test this context even before his arrival at the White House, as it cannot be ruled out that there will be early contacts between the two parties, similar to what happened in previous stages with various American administrations, in order to explore the extent to which the two parties could reach in the understandings about Controversial files.

Hence, Iran is trying to consolidate its position before engaging in any direct or indirect contacts with the new US administration, in order to raise the bargaining ceiling, and thus obtain the largest possible gains, while at the same time making the lowest level of concessions.

Tehran, in this context, may seek to recall the experience of its previous negotiations with the administration of former US President Barack Obama, which preceded the announcement of the nuclear agreement by several years.

As it was keen in that period to raise the level of escalation, at the various nuclear, missile and regional levels.

Hence, several trends indicate that the more Tehran is keen to escalate at certain times and at different levels, the more that is an indication that it is seeking to reach understandings with Washington specifically.

Without a doubt, the economic crisis that Tehran is facing at the present time will represent a fundamental variable, which may have a role in determining its dealings with the new US administration.

As Tehran realizes that it will not be able to bear the consequences of the US sanctions imposed on it for a long time, in light of the erosion of cash reserves and a significant decline in oil exports.

Consequently, it appears ready to engage in new understandings with the Biden administration, but it will be keen to be limited to the mechanisms of Washington's return to the nuclear agreement in exchange for its return to abide by its commitments to it.

The role of the "Pasdaran"

The Revolutionary Guard may have an opposite role in this context.

He may seek to continue the escalation in the next stage, at least until the Iranian presidential elections are held on June 18, 2021, through which he seeks to support the chances of one of his candidates, or at least one close to him, to reach the position of president.

Of course, the Pasdaran will be keen to intensify the campaign waged by the media close to it, and promote the risks inherent in negotiating with the United States of America again.

It was remarkable that calls for revenge for the killing of the commander of the Quds Force of the Guard, Qassem Soleimani, began to increase in the last period, especially with the approaching first anniversary of his death on January 3, which is inseparable from the Guard’s attempts to confirm its opposing approach to negotiating with Washington again.

Limited engagement

It can be said that the counter-pressure exerted by the decision-making circles in Tehran regarding negotiations with Washington in the coming period may not provide several options for the Iranian leadership, in a way that might push it to adopt the so-called "limited engagement" policy, which is based on accepting negotiations. With Washington only, about how it will return to the nuclear agreement, without addressing other contentious files, in which it seems difficult for Tehran to make major concessions, at least in the current stage, which also explains the reasons for its keenness to continue the escalation in these files, during Current period.

-

Iran is

seeking to negotiate with Biden administration, and may have tried to

test this context ,

even before arriving at the

White House, where it

can not be

ruled out

that there will

be early contacts between the

two sides, similar to

what happened in previous with different American administrations stages, to explore the

range Which the two parties can reach in the understandings about the files in dispute.

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